Transcript for Why we shouldn’t hope COVID-19 is seasonal like the flu
And at the EET I NC EG from living room because. He doesn't work remotely candy coat it ninety. I wanna into her clothing. And means and even president how is that. Me this new credit card logo way. Our similar access would but why does that do or seasonal pattern and will be new aren't just in. Our senior remain curtain bachelor party yes so. How are we don't entirely Knoll Wyatt flew seasonal. What we have to get out are some things. Out and it's a core relations kind of hint at. We're just might come from. And one of those relations is that flew it seems to survive better and stay infectious longer. Attribute the low humidity. And what you find is that apps humidity is lower in when turn. And also when your insight he did house's. Humidity is a lot or. So those who make good environments where flu viruses seem to enjoy and seemed to be able since riots that. And they can when humidity is higher. So when the flu lake. Go waiting couldn't during. More humid months baton. Basically it is always constantly circulating in human population so. Some of that is going to opposite hemisphere and hanging out there and their winter months some of that is. Kind of just still circulating to the population here but it doesn't spread as wells there's not as many people getting sick and they aren't getting ads seconds they do in winter. So it's still there it never actually goes away. It just doesn't have as much of a big impact on this and nothing she find is that in. Tropical climates dares actually not sees it it's their year round. And they are still trying to figure out why a bat is one of these theories is that there's something about extremely high humidity. That slew who. Survives well witness just like it doesn't really low humidity so that middle ground to get in like the temporal summer is great but. A little bit further south and it just never. What do you know about whether corona virus we'll do something similar. We don't know. There is this is one many many things that we don't actually know about credit buyers right now. There is some reason to suspect that it might not be seasonal at least not to the extent that flu is because. There. We're seeing it in places that are warm already talk about Singapore he talk abouts. Australia. The others saying is that when Cyrus was spreading back in 2003 it's also a crown a virus and. And it was attracting people end Toronto all the way up and tune in late may and June. Laugh I'll. So what what are we do differently with SARS then to have it be this thing that we weren't so much about London and basically disappeared. Yes I didn't disappear because of the weather. Item this is one of the things that the researchers I talked to wanted to make really clear is that the weather does not make irises goal way. You know the weather makes. Seasonality. Change but that's different. What makes our school weight wise public health detentions and -- once there was a lot of social isolation there was a lot. Identifying cases through testing. And isolating the people that where infected beef where they could spread. Part of what made Sar is easier to do with that and corona virus has ban is that saris doesn't seem to be buried sections and actually showing symptoms. So it was easy to spot these people at the my slated to when it restarting its other people. But there's reason to think the crown of iris doesn't work the same way. If if corona virus worse he is now in that's something we should be hoping for our worry is that to sort of laying the problem them. You should not talking about. It's corona virus is seasonal or to come as a way at the summer if it. It there's a decent chance comes back to fall. And if it's coming back at all bosnians that we've Beasley sailed at our public helped it attachments. Mom because the things that make a virus able to go way and come back are becoming endemic in the population at a global scale. And endemic. Basically just means it's doing met saying it's circulating in the public at all times it's not something that you have to touch somebody who's been to a specific place it's not something that you passed to have to jump across and animal barrier. And in fact she you from your chickens or you know what upper. It's something that other people are carrying all the time what are there one is a near you are Wannstedt live far away. And once a virus is pandemic. All over the place an endemic all the time. That's not a great thing for keeping it under control. You know flu kills something like 60000 Americans entry year and that's not necessarily eight norm that we want for another virus to be doing. So if Kobe nineteen becomes truly endemic what is that individual risk to any given person. So I'm really glad you asked this question actually because it's something a lot individual risk is. Obviously we don't think out. It is an obvious thing that. You see whenever we're talking about seeing a viral outbreaks in books and TV and movies how likely a mine to die. And to. I think this is one of those places where whisk this particular back iris. The numbers are misleading. Not only did we not necessarily know what the death rate is yet I am we all sold just like having the death rate doesn't actually tell you much about the risk. Because the risk isn't really about your individuals. As far as the press goes. It's mostly with Turkey you know its risks if you look at like the death rates what we do know about them. Relatively speaking their hockey stick in you hit sixty unit starts Garland straight up. But. It's not an individual risk problem as much as a collect. And that's something that's really bad hammered home to mean watching what's coming out of your right now where doctors are passing running out of adds. Four people in hospitals. They're helping to make decisions about who gets about a later and it doesn't. And those are things that doctors in the US saint we absolutely should be prepared for here Adam that bill happened here. If we don't get social distancing read to you be immediately right in the next few weeks. That is prepared to risk comes and that's where all of flattening the curve stings to you've seen come men. Like you yourself may not get sick you may only have a mild cold yes most people do agriculture. I am butts. The problem is not whether you're going to recover not problems ridiculous credit to somebody doesn't. Harry and Maggie will thank you so much for talking with me this morning I really appreciate it thank you so much. We I think he wants he even more of our new corona virus so. What questions. Let you know in the conference and answer future area. X and the top hats.
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