Transcript for Will the stimulus bill boost Democrats’ electoral prospects?
Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm deal injury. President trumps approval rating was the study is of any president since pollsters started regular be tracking presidential approval in the 1940s. So far president Biden's approval has been even start here. And significantly higher so we're gonna talk about why that is and also what might affect Barton's approval. In particular is Biden likely to benefit from the American rescue plan which he signed into law last week and is broadly popular. Also last week Biden urged states to open vaccine eligibility to all adults by may first. And some states appeared to be on an even faster time. The country is quickly approaching a period where the challenge will go from securing enough vaccines to ensuring that everyone who is eligible actually gets backs and will look at the latest polling about vaccine hesitancy and access. And we're gonna check in on the ongoing scandal in New York. Where politicians in the state legislature and congressional delegation have increasingly called on Governor Cuomo to resign over sexual harassment actions. Here at meet to discuss at all is politics editor surprise since analysts Arab. Yeah. Also in us is politics reporter out sales Alice. In. And elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly a death. Picking on. So let's begin by talking about presidential approval and we're gonna ask one of our paper questions which is good use of polling work act use of poll. And today's example is simply. Presidential approval poll. If it'd been years of polling right. So as I mentioned throughout a chaotic presidency Donald Trump packed this deadliest approval rating at any president as far back as our records doubt. And so far credit approval rating is even stagger. So. Jeffrey you a little bit of this this week where do you come down is presidential approval polling useful if it's not really gonna change all that much. My attitude let's yes it's it's still valuable still tells us what the American public thinks about the president and that is important because even if it's scenes. You know president Tribe's approval is extremely steady it's still had some ups and downs and we could still. Pinpoint some of those downs and ups you particular events or scandals. So. I think it's it's sort of it just their expectations for how beat. A surge might cedar president's approval or how much a down tick because. Obviously attitudes are a lot. More hardened now focusing some partisan but do you that day can still see some movement and you can still see how that sort of effects. Public opinion. About the president. Sarah outs how do you thought I mean if werder you know we watched president frogs approval rating throughout all four years. And we receive like movements of two to three points. I mean it's that a good use of presidential approval polling. If really there's there is very minor fluctuation. And whatever Pletcher is in there was didn't even seem long term. -- that day at the ten its stocks to currencies is just that isn't what Exxon. You know the biggest drop trumps Ruble went after an insurrection the capital. Expects and still only five point drop said you know it's still too early in the cycle race to Allah willing to get a sense of Powell Americans. Race for congress. In critical rating for president is kind of our best. Use of polling to understand where the electorate it's so I'd say grace. Yeah. And I. So I don't see it's useful in some ways that's a cop I answer but one thing backed ballot measure last year that I and interest anglers looking at how. Approval ratings impact flag bearing a presidential. Incumbent wins reelection and so. Essentially what they found was that all incumbents with an approval rating above 50% in their final preelection survey. What real action and it to look presidential tenants with approval ratings below authority which does Jimmy Carter and George HW. Los aptly. So using this data they predicted act comes reelection chances last year where. Slim and they were right in saying that he likely was not born between relax and be is his approval ratings. The elections when each when he were hovering right around 43%. I'm so that was a very long winded way of saying that I think he's approval ratings are probably most useful right before. Any time it is up for reelection or for looking at treatment each in purchased each. War now and that's such a point because you know. Even though our traps reading to move all that matched the track it was stuck in the forties accidentally. Note that he was wrecked or early fall or announcer point. Jeff meet today in east peace. Wool so one question in the past year give in that the national polls were off by four points in 20/20. Is you know. Do we need Q. Look at these approval ratings waited a grain of salt because. You know for example as you mentioned trump was in the low forties much. You know his presidency in terms of approval rating nationally he got about 47%. The vote. Which is higher then you know the number of Americans who approved of the job mr. certainly take that to me and there are some people who don't approve of the job that president trump was doing but voted for him regardless. And likewise right now we see Joseph Biden when about 54% approval rating should be faint light. ONS. Fish everything like OK well that's what the polls are capturing but maybe there's actually I support because we know the pulled off last November definite. Historically polling air's been sort of hard to predict in terms of direction. City just because there was a four point air into each when he doesn't mean that there'll be one NC 20/20 two you are 20/20 four when action another presidential election. So I would be cautious about that did you think some of the concerns that we saw up from pole in 20/20 in terms of com. Who non response bias we missed some trop supporters clearly in the polls to some extent. What was responsible for that. I do think that that concern still lingers for something like presidential approval but 'cause you can see how that voter sentiment and sort of the partisanship. Can tie in and relate strongly to news two election mean thinking about the 20/20 presidential election. Most voters who approved opt out front that for him for reelection in but she just occurred. Voted against him he's very higher rates there's so. I do you have concerns. For some of the same reasons that election Poland when it comes from Poland to. So you said we start by saying okay you know approval ratings are still useful but we have to change our expectations so what should we change our expectations too. And do the same lessons from trump presidency apply to them by presidency to like what kind of a shift in approval rating should we consider to be. Significant enough that it could shape elect for outcomes are that an incumbent should be worried about their performance where a pop. Rights is Sarah mentioned that the biggest drop in trust approval rating outlets after the assault on Capitol Hill Jeter's sixth. And disprove fell about five points. I if you went back in TR approval tracking data for trop. You can only find a couple other instances where his approval rating fell by half that in such a short amount of time which is not nine days. That for example the firing give teams come back and twenty cent team nor are right after. Trump signed an executive order said. The ban travel from predominately Muslim countries also went back in 2017. His approval fell out there points does that those cases and very short time. But for example you can also see about three point drop over a month after. That killing of George Floyd entrance response to that including things like the Lafayette square incident. Where they cleared it. Clear protestors. That got NATO response. So I think for me it's it's sort of like well racket C Big Ten point swings anymore. But may be a three point swing here over couple weeks or month could be symbolic of changing. Of actual real change in American attitudes toward something I have to be careful though because. If you're just looking at one polling EC. A shifts you know. You don't want me too much of that because that's not a very big change comes just one pulpit if you have a fair amount of polling to work with which hopefully we do you when it comes to approval tracking. We can say something has changed. Over a couple weeks. It. And keeping. Its you know we also that the trackers here it looks at how it's handling the response to current. Resting its his overall approval numbers there that Democrats Republicans independents 61. Stats you know. 17. Points higher than its current or a presidential approval rating. That suggests to me that. What to write a partisan ship. The items doing well in terms how to the credit cards doesn't think he's doing well overall. It also suggests that me that there is more happy ceiling for human potential note as discussed here went the current stimulus funding. But that could help his numbers he's and to I have to think that something we saw time and get trop was Morse. You know shifts in his response to negative things I'm not sure that there Ers to bear in response to positive things that presidents politicians and for more. You know scandal based. Pulling society. I think it's interesting that. The differences there and I think against returned Alex's point out. You know as long as fighting can stay north at 50%. Things yet that is in itself extra in Decatur and seeing trop could it crack 50% or action. Suggested that possibility she could. And he said that's suggesting just ask Sarah was just how. Approvals for the American rescued and is a lot higher at and items of prop approval rating and one question that I happen this is just a hypothetical is. Will Republicans who prove that the American ask you can't meet me don't approve of I know Rollins what does that mean elect orally in Tony's need to do in 20/20 four are they going to. We're war Democrats for this and it's you know meet. They're side Matt. Order doesn't mean he's people who approve of the American rescue plan may be there Republicans are not necessarily be Ivan entity just going teen keep voting Republican. So you mentioned today for a presidential political. In terms of winning reelection about 50% is kind of difficult number is that also true fur midterm elections like the president's approval rating is about 50% then you know there that are. Party in the house will perform well and in the senate will perform well or do they need to be during batter. Historically. It needs to be higher than 50%. Usually need the president's and even remotely recent times you have avoided. And heating seen their party Keeneland it in the house for instance or have. Had pretty marginal losses. Had robberies north of 60%. On any so in nineteen idea April Clinton's approval rating was a bit about 60%. Democrats gained handfuls seats in the house and processor at the easiest tool for this because it's an actual national election on like the senate. Where it about a third of the seats Europe every two years. I'm and George W. Bush Republicans also gained handfuls seats in 2002 during his first term because its approval is still very high. In the aftermath of 9/11 and bought it in H rack or the ramping up in that direction. So historically I think Biden's approval would have to be in. A stronger place than it is now offered for Democrats have much hope of minimizing or even gaining a few seats. He ended 20/20 mid terms however with that said is that still true now given what we know about how partisan. Approval rating is in terms it's. You know he'll uphold says 10% of Republicans approve of Joseph Biden but 90% Democrats you Natick sort of matters where independents fall. Arm but. May be only need to be 55% today tickets 55 is the you know. The new sixty are Urlacher because it's because things are just we were operating. I think it in his sixties Africa has but lately analysts cut the other divided into Saturday action. Within. Unit that made that ceiling is lower floors higher. And if things that are Connolly 2018. To twenty such high turnout. People are very engaged maybe you don't need to be sixty T percent or some effort for Democrats avoid losses. But that obvious that means scenes severely basic debate at the next. Years change. In. Its themes to the president's party does or in the teacher. This has been that they have to gain seats in house and sent tall order conflicting back to twenty teen in the sense that yes it even house. Oh. And senate seats. Too if unit in which historically meant that president scheme both chambers. And mrs. Clinton's success wore you know. Even in her she had. Bush the elder. Key. Only eight seats one seat senate her discretion. And seeing it topped the twenty T. Apartment. Tried and its numbers for. Kind of wondered to what extent she and I realize you know look at some institutions like sent house. Or I switched it then is perhaps one reason why Republicans. Seats. Tony T. I'm curious you know. Mediate his numbers don't half eaten at 55 Ford Democrats is still retain control once there or how tense Scotto. And when we like have this discussion of items approval ratings and how to impact and me to I. Kind of wonder like is part of his just out of Biden's hands completely because we still don't know what attorneys from the eighteen congressional districts while like. And until the states or entry drawn their maps you know we won't really have nuclear sciences bat and at the state level. Republicans have eight hander probably bigger hand than Democrats to you in deciding what these axle lights and even if ions approval rating is out and out 60%. At a 22 you. If it districts are each on you know Wayne where Republicans can retain power. Is there anything that I'd end can do it like a super high approval ratings have played. Kind of discount that. Gary that's it that's definitely a factor at variable that is really hard to news project at this point you know how the new maps going to affect things but I do think that you're talking about. The American rescue plan. That the code nineteen stimulus here. I think what the Democrats are backing out Biden is administration banking on is that the economy's gonna get to roaring. By later this year and 20/20 two in that is going Q. Help boost its approval rating help used democratic. Support across the country its own thinking about it that's. That's sort of I think the think that they can do and can hope for. We'll see though because. We've seen in the last couple presidencies. With Barack Obama Donald Trump that. Economic attitudes and economic sentiment about how things are going has become much more separated from overall approval disapproval. The president so you might have in at the moment that Joseph Biden basically look like he's gonna win the presidency. In the aftermath. Of the of Election Day yet polls show Republican economic sentiment in how things are going well or poorly and immediately dropped. Whereas Democrats started to tick upward on and so. Really great economy does it mean that suddenly a ton or Republicans are gonna come over by insiders. So it's it's really. Comes out margins but I think that's what they're hoping it can do you to it to help themselves out just out. Talking about things that you know I can't control and things that art tactical. And he can't control the degree of partisanship war polarization. And maybe he can to some extent through rhetoric you know doesn't mean he cleanest and based politics that prompted. And so you know and we see that of course is incorporating is a little higher. As you mention are making on this American rescue plan. In part to try to you know can boost his numbers and and maybe run on the economy and 120. So the approval rating nationally for the American rescue planet somewhere in the seventy to 75%. Range do we expect. Debt. Democrats can convert that mean to you. You know higher approval ratings than 54%. For Biden where where's the difference between. Dot approving of policy to prevent actual party actual price. How do you try to chip connected. Yet and you know we're seeing hanky curiouser. Alex Jack's thoughts on this seen coming out. Plan this is how Democrats. Working straight. Contests you jumpstart the economy. It's pretty to financially in 20/20. Yes I didn't sit well the crime in those counties that the winter trop ox general and it. It seems that you know Scranton Joseph can't. Senators will this economic policy. Two minds like you. One reason why I think McCain struggled in 2008 was because the economy worse. Granite you know degree recession. Different. Elements that are currently going through Tuesday that there are some Carol house in in the sense that. You know by July 4 that's what happens now mr. Howard RQB. Outside the yours. If that trajectory lines if people are in the work force if you know unemployment numbers now. I wonder if as legal act like normal he he its report it electorally. First you know. Depending that there aren't any other scandals that break I could kind of argument and it certainly seems that eat pop. The political bat they're making it seems like a Smart. Getting backed sort of the margins thing new pew research did polling online on approval for the rescue plan. And they broke down Republican approval in TU. Sort of high medium and low income Republicans. And it was intercede because it's high income Republicans. Very few approved of the plan. And a few more approved in the median income level that a majority actually of low income Republicans. Approved of the plan. So I think sort thinking about how old. Democrats have Biden tried to gin up more support ahead of the 222022. Mid terms it's. The economy and careers and that they get some credit for that and that they win over a few people who currently. Might be inclined to disapprove of them are have you know no opinion. Out her her mixed opinions me. So it may be moving someone from a somewhat disapprove of to a somewhat or proof. Position on the line and there are there are people in the electorate Hugh who could. Who could move in that way it's not so heartened but it's just that there are a ton of people are gonna strongly of fervor strongly disapprove no matter what happens. Yet a lot of times we think of the mid term backlash happening because. The out party the opposition party. You so energized because they really don't like what the incumbent history as a part of being successful as an incumbent in the mid terms. Is not just you know. Keeping your approval rating off. And you're doing popular things it's also keeping your disapproval rating down and making sure that the unit the opposition. Doesn't out a ton of energy to light show up to the polls. In a much higher numbers then own voters. And so you don't we'll see whether or not doing popular things can. Keep his disapproval rating down. In addition to whether or not it'll bruised his approval. So you know we're dealing with two dynamics here one it is one with matching which is partisan polarization restricting. Degree to which. Approval canoes. Being the Arab network or. The other thing here is. There's there's this policy debate going on. On one hand and others a cultural debate going on on the other rate Republicans are really focused on your. Typical culture and basically. Democrats are tried to change our society really quickly in dramatic ways not just Democrats but also liberals and activists and things like that. Do we know when it comes to various kinds of questions and our economic policy infrastructure. Stimulus spending at Sutter. And culture wars which is more salient for voters I think it's very possible that republic. And centering these issues like. Doctor she spectator had its Sadr are. Very accurately reading their base is serving last month from the TGO people sir acts on insights and that. The top concerns among Republican voters were mainly cultural ones. The ones at the top or. Illegal immigration a lack of support for the police high taxes and quote liberal bias in mainstream media has opted out so it's. Those are things that the Republican base is interest and what did not make sense for Republican elected six hadn't pushed it is issues. You know I'm yeah. I think that's. Something to keep an especially you know I think we've seen teach at the car. It's the continent's. I think. Don't kid ourselves that the economy. That's good for it he needs that. If you we spent all its money and that doesn't. And that's probably a huge electoral. But I think you know. When Alex is hitting in particular. I entity that is key to our politics and Republicans. Canceled. That clearly resonates with the base you know pool after all us is that many Americans suspecting can't. But majority Republicans and particularly younger applicants are concerned it. So that will be to watch order however would say it in you know. Atlas trumps 20/20. Saw teach. You all to me. You want a strong identity Ericsson. Are have to have some policy at the end that day. That. The Olympics are your base and try handling the current span little matter. Sector sport. Yes speaking to that question about what's salient indicated a day. Historically. Americans have said things you then have to deal with the economy ours are most important problem at least often times you know what were not when we haven't been at war. Or something the economy tends to be in this important issue now I can vary a lot. You know maybe maybe 20% of people say it's this important problem number challenge of the feet thermos worried about. Or maybe it's 50% in the middle of like an economic crisis or something by it in the day the economy is still something people care a lot about. And I think it's also the zone where if fewer Democrats this is the thing you want to focus on if it's improving. And you're hoping it's going to improve whereas for Republicans. Yet they see how popular that the rescue plan is so. It doesn't benefit them to focus audit all that much he noted some people are going to be. Worried about the price tag because there are a lot of voters out there who'll be like out a lot of money and I'm worried about bouncing the budget. But maybe it's better for them or you know has more potential use for Republicans sit to talk about. Things like cancel culture and just pierce cultural identity things the 'cause. If the economy does start to two do you patter. And the Democrats can talk about the rescue plan is being the reason for that. It's not a great talking point for the GOP talk about the rescue plan so they should focus on something else. Bright and the other the other messes it reaper from Republicans is that. Will the economy is already improving anyway and it there was going to be a boom because of the underlying conditions of pent up demand a lot of savings because people were actually spending for a an entire year and somewhat which it may well be true. Blank it's hard to get that message across like the economy you have to kind of admit already that the economy's doing well. In order to that don't make your argument that you should credit. Democrats. So that may be like Morgan typical rhetoric of course to reduce the negative. Complications like inflation and things like that I'm sure Republicans will be talking about the economy. And not cultural issues quite as much but we're gonna have to regency power this all shakes out. Which means that actual sat. You know you think that approval ratings are still a duties of polling means that we will continue tracking man. As please see. You know where the economy I'd run a bias. You know also were some of these cultural debate attack obviously there are more and more immigrants at the southern border rich Republicans have been talking about Clinton but is also an actual sport. The Biden administration. You know rules is out. Let's lock and talk about the latest in vaccine at polling so far the story of the corona virus vaccine has been one high demand. And limited supply. But as more and more doses become available and more Americans become eligible the next challenge facing the government will be ensuring that enough Americans are vaccinated to stem the spread of the ports and that means addressing any hesitancy about the vaccine can also act. The poll which has a vault quite a bit over the past year since. Antarctic first. So I wanted to start off where the taking a look at at polling landscape or Rawls Sarah you don't. How willing are Americans to be vaccinated. They planet at least 70%. Any pupil either intends to get a vaccine art. And yet that is a big uptick frowned at earth that was the last time Q sir it would cut a lot of attention. In particular and Alex he's honest this. Acts 21 thing that that was kind of under covered and that she story and just you know. Hasn't really sunk in how process are just like some of these polls at ground to. Be done. In net and her for it's clear presidency. The vaccine actually hear oral these mixed reports on how effective our day. And you know one earning less Democrats initially last year we're very hesitant to get acts and you know but now that's changed under her sister Erin now Republicans are more. Nervous and unwilling to get the vaccines so I think you know something keep in mind is that like everything else vaccinations political. Overall. The majority of Americans to get acts it and there is really this hesitancy or out in. And do you backing off what's Harris. I think that NPR PBS Marist poll from last week. You know sentence so that the groups that are most likely to just flat out refused the vaccine word from voters Republicans and white evangelicals. I decided just as active how this is being politicized again. I think that new poll and as with earlier data suggesting part of what we are deemed you know. Which is that there's a difference between expressed hesitant steam with black and Latino communities. And it express refusal. Among the trapping GOP base unquestioned that I had just going forward is the degree to waits. Refusal assessed expressing responding to have vs whether it's actually going to play out and carry over into people's behavior. It's a vaccine becomes widely available. Just here in the next few months. I mean that's really good point enemy at this point to the other thing it's seems to be more cents is the underlying reason the times earlier here in March had done analysis and the acts each grade not. Black Hispanic and white people and what they found you know. Funds presently is that black people. Share each outstanding share of agent have not the acts this is bear cans. Isn't getting expect Alex saint it's less hesitancy issue more access H. Yes I mean it seems it seems somewhat complicated and that in some cases it's polls in. Other cases. It's not so in that recent Marist College polling that. You know you match of the and art Marist College polling. About a quarter of polls black and white Americans said they already been vaccinated which I found interesting because we have seen reports that black Americans have not been. Vaccinated at the same rate as white Americans. And the data actually showed that really where re sealed lagging who's getting vaccinated is amongst Latino Americans. And and I'll just say also there's a lot of data that disagrees here will see very different polling numbers from one hole to the next. Odd who has been vaccinated. How much hesitancy there as etc. so Jeffrey you know how should we read through some of this deed especially where we see discrepancies. Well I think you want to look at how the question was asked. Some times there a couple responses that a person can give or there's three options that the pulsar presents the them back in effect. Maybe how much settlements and our apple the precision people who say that day. To get a vaccine. Maybe there's some Biddle response people like to choose the middle response of polls because if you serve expresses. Uncertainty. Hesitancy in if you think about pull. Asking about approval. If it if one of the options includes neither approve or disapprove the year your way to get like 10% of people say that because. They're kinda not sure you're not really pushing them so they're gonna cheese that so. I think looking it throughout the poll set up what that the nature the question is is important offer for understandings of this differences. And also just understanding that the the wording of the question itself can matter. In terms. To what exactly that the wording is. We know from from past polian experiments that just tight words something can affect responses so I think if you're seeing it 60% one poll and 72% another poll. Indicating broad. Support her broad interest in getting the vaccine and brought intention of game that vaccine. But in terms of figure out what the hard number is her number people are gonna actually get the vaccine without a little prodding. That's hard to know at least if you're trying to get supersize. So do is sit in New York Times. Reference to. Ours actually looking CDC. Acts each. Of course that's lacking. But it is. In terms of that about meeting vs Ole. You know I would look at what is the CDC actually record granite you know how each state acts Greece this theories for case to case. And it makes hard and understand the national picture books protecting explains that discrepancy. The same for Hispanic voters in particular is right now most states only to fifty americans' safety Ian Poulter. Hispanics in the USQ she anchors that's part. I think they're still access issues you're seeing that black Americans as well the trauma that is eight in you know actually it's playing out DC and this really interesting way. Some of the awards that where considered eligible skewed very white are also old. That's didn't mean that there are ways in which people where key that the war and it cost it's repeated as the top. District and going parent not being from that area both things are happening which I think also complicates the picture. That you have some of that is each Democrat next summer that it is. On equal access to accidents off. Yet so. As you mentioned the story is really complicated and some of the status conflicting what we do sees steadily across. All of the polling is that some of the highest hesitancy rates are amongst Republicans. Why is that and what can be done to you insurer. You know to try to encourage people choose to acts. So many times of course happened skeptical. Of chronic virus health current fines since they can't. I'm especially when it came to restrictions on businesses and masking it so. I'm just wondering like how surprising it is that. This is near one of the groups that says they don't want to get the vaccine. I know doctor if I achieve. It's a pretty recently that it would be great if trump went out and pulls his supporters say the vaccine in his. Available I got the vaccine that and it's helpful. But concept art doesn't steam. Willing to do that and he got the vaccine I believe just. Privately. No cameras which was obviously different and you print and making I didn't Harris tucking getting their vaccines. I don't know if president and coming out and telling his supporters you know. Hate. You know their safety concerns with adding that it acts he knew. I mean it's harder teens who are organic center I don't know if that would album help assuage any of the concerns that Republicans happening yet again. Let's start point your great trump did it privately but in tents you know was the public eight. Eyes. But there isn't the same messaging. That you key to political leaders hail and getting. Acts at each and it's important. It's what helps act normal. And you think that kind of message would go a long way in its dealings with tears or remember our next. Amber when it was still the vaccines developed. An Arab member Harris I don't know I would trust acts know that will be soap and because bin he'll have Democrat. Acts not trust taxi S. Insurer not appointee because it was a trap administration because they handled. The current buyers particularly well there was trust Democrats that sense correct it and now house point and it's primarily Republicans. And you don't see someone stepping in. She's act leadership role to say hey it's important that it acts. Yet to put some numbers of us so as dimensions are 30% of Americans or all. Say they wouldn't get the vaccine that number is jumps to 41%. Amongst Republicans so there is you know a significant presence either. Most of here's of our access you know what do we know about. That the ecosystem in which sees this opinion exists. Yes when we've looked at access particularly among black Americans essentially what we found that vaccine hubs are sort of concentrated in areas our predominantly whiter and wealthier so it was harder for black people to. Get back seat on Friday in new attack is the earth you know access to Internet since signing up for vaccine is predominantly on mine how many people have access to you a phone her computer and Internet where he can sign up. To do this by themselves for and assets under and help them. Sanders or TV arts event and then we also looked act an instance in California. Where. They had opened the vaccine to people of color predominantly and one section of the stain and I think. What people are coming in just stealing the vaccines slots as well so I think there are a couple problems with access. And you know and used the address that an act. But then on top of that address saying things like misinformation. In black and Latino communities and making shore. You know that people who aren't meant to get these vaccines spots aren't just coming in and Symbian and taking what's left of supply. And what. And add to that would be remiss not to our colleagues. Keep company teen asked to be really great segment are helpless. Govern justice it's. Brett revolutionized. Fax district each had a very much like visitors sit. Policy. Could I don't listen to this very moment yes small state and do certain things that statement Texas 10. And saying hey I think what's. It shows that. Adds that more girls state there's still pathways which lets ax needs. And also trump. States. It's out. Pick what Sarah is saying is very important in terms of thinking about how. It leads Cain sort of queue up public opinion can lead and certain directions. And so if you urgency. The former president trump or just a large number of Republican members of congress really pushing the vaccine. You know maybe that could aid that could encourage more Republican acceptance and desire to get the vaccine. I'm under the Mitch McConnell has said that he. He's getting the vaccine has gotten the vaccine that your god yet but I don't put out a statement. Talking about its support for having had a polio vaccine as a child. End and how important that been. So thinking about vaccination is as being important thing you're gonna hear some Republicans. Like McConnell. Pushing for but I don't think you're hearing quite the chorus that you'd like to hear that I think would. Encourage Republicans to get the vaccine though that you're uncertain. If. Part of an underlying. Distrust. The federal government horror you know the government making things mandatory or encouraging people to do things one way or another. He's not underlying it or is it just really like. Kind of up a partisan preference to change. I think it's a mix of those teeth and eggs in the sense that we know that. Many conservatives are skeptical. The government's and it mandates and in some cases that can get into questions about religion. You know white talking evangelicals earlier. That their support vaccine is lower but at the same time I do you think that if proper president right now you it's the more Republicans being receptive to getting a vaccine because of that partisan. In switch being flicked the terms of who's in power and you'd have more Democrats being hesitant about it. I think it brightens packed sorry Biden's press and Terry even said last week that. A democratic administration with a democratic president is probably not the most effective messenger to communicate we keys. Hard core trump supporters. So yeah just going off into test plank easing that's. The partisans are it is probably why we're seeing some hesitancy. It's here I think that's gonna than anything you know I heard assistant justice but the Desantis is you know controversial. Case anyone come to sport that acts. But again I think it's like you know key. He pushed to thaksin should at least in a way. Which were gonna do it on terms and again like you know or public cannon. Meet current leaders pushing that message that just doesn't seem to many that are filing that test or justice Kenya. In terms at Oakley push her acts should missing. Star. Part what we will keep an eye on this is. May approaches and more and more people are eligible hopefully this is like a hesitancy thing more then. Heart no but we will see how politicians try to encourage people to news. Get vaccinated and as you mentioned earlier Sarah podcast nineteenth has covered this generals have been out of the senate leaders this week. On the strategies that people are using tick convince those within their community to get it. So protect our. Before we wrap I do you want to check in on the scandals in new York and calls for Cuomo's resignation. Last Friday the calls for New York governor Cuomo's resignation over sexual harassment allegations reached a fever pitch so more than a dozen members of the state democratic house delegation called Omar to resign. And that included house judiciary to me doctor Jerrold Nadler one of the highest ranking Democrats in the house. It Alter included Alexander Cortez. I the end of the day on Friday bulls New York's senators Chuck Schumer who is of course the senate majority leader accused in Gillibrand also call Kuo wrote. Cuomo denied the harassment claims and reiterated Friday that he would not resign describing the calls for him to do so as part of can't. Last week when we talk about how the party the Democratic Party was responding to these rats and allegations. We noted that a lot of national Democrats at Steve out of this question whether or not that was part. You know our reaction to what happened with Al Franken and national Democrats not wanting to ask forcibly Aaron pass. Pushed out somewhat popular Democrat. So what changed over the past week that now all of these national Democrats are coming and asking. I mean I think it part it's that. They're been further allegations. Me deacons Cuomo and as we've seen in some other cases in the pats. When you get. More more evident sort of building it is a trip trip trip to this sort of thing that can encourage. Greater support for calling for resignation are called for celebs step down. So like date that's that's clearly part of it and so maybe democratic leaders. Members of congress from new Yorker or other officials there are feeling. Like while there's there's a lot here may be easier. Politically for our party you inferred jammed are Democrats have full control things in new York and there I think that what do you. It will be easier forests if Cuomo left because then we keep it backed governing gore or get rid of this sort of sore spot it. Maybe conflicts with our messaging online. Things like sexual harassment and b.'s. Anti air. Has made a ton of friends in this partnership here. He took away a lot of the state legislatures responsibilities here. Great. Heat at dressed I'm. Friday there is an element opportunist. Sense that you know. New York is controlled by passed an a lot of advancement. Party require some retired. Or stepping down. Seven I mean the response within boats national Democrats the state legislature has been well and terms calling for his ancient. It is notable so the whole slick Nancy Pelosi sent anything wants to pass HI agents at the same that we. Picking just like number 23 house is also stepped away from actually calling for her quality. So the few friends he does have her very influential and power or. The question is you know why is he that the Sox the investigation. And so is it just. That does cover its timeline. Tickled while. He gets to quietly. The end of his term. That I don't really understood. The other big question registers we talked a lot about polling last week when we were discussing this scandal and noted that the majority of New Yorkers did not want portraits. We didn't get any new polling poll last week and you might have thought. Okay there's this new allegation where. An unnamed aides said that Cuomo groped her in the governor's accent. And then you also had this outpouring. Democrats national Democrats calling park to resign. We just got polling today the first new polling since we discussed it last week. And on the resignation question in the Siena College poll 35%. Of New Yorkers thought he should leave office 50% said he should not. And 50% are undecided. Soccer all that we haven't really seen it actually very much change a month's how voters in New York are viewing us. I guess this is and I pressure I don't know why. That poll was conducted. Early it's like mid march so it doesn't fully included. Groping allegations aren't you in you mentioned earlier and I don't think it also includes the recent flood of calls from him to resign. I'm so if a poll comes out. After Ines. That takes all of that into account I just don't know how his numbers will change. A acts out his. Inclined to bring the point out that this could be a fast moving story where public opinion could shift markedly depending on what comes out at that this poll. A lot of the time a lot of it's the time span for a march 8 the twelfth it's. Lot of that doesn't include the responses we saw over the weekend and at the very end of last week so. You know. It would still be 50% don't resign today I I'm not sure I suspected. That that number would give down at the number of people supported resignation go up does that mean that it would be flipped her something or majority of leasing resigned. That I can't say for sure. Cuomo has had. Longstanding supporter. In the polls where he might have a lot of liberal elites complaining about handing people supported say Cynthia Nixon's primary challenge to him and twenty teen. And in the democratic primary. And he used mostly remained above all that and had a lot of support so I you know if you're sorry for a place of having. High approval ratings high favorability ratings. On that crude issued a better position to weather a storm and he. You you might say if you were start from a lower position might be even easier to call on him resign. And for him to maybe hear this calls actually do it so I think that's also part of the reason why get back to deals earlier questioned why. Year you may see Cuomo fight on this because he believes that. He's had a lot of support over the years. From New Yorkers and that he gained eighty harness that it to stay in office and survive. Calls resignation. Below just have to see what the next pulls us. Wrecked and I should add here in terms of the timeline that. The latest. Accusation that the governor haekkerup an aide in the governor's mansion and document on Tuesday of last week and as Paul carver is Monday through Friday so you know. People were asked about this even after that accusation came now. One question here is. Do the parties. Reacts differently. To. These kinds. Allegations last week we talk about whether or not the Democratic Party was reacting differently today. That it had you know several years ago. You know a lot of these calls resignation coming from within his own party plenty of Republicans had gas party said McCormack shirt Reza. By we are seeing the vast majority of the democratic delegation in house even the majority. Democrats in the state legislature also calling on Taurus. Would we see this it within the Republican party of from a Republican. So pollster frank and scandal. Revealed a partisan divide in how voters view these allegations so I found interesting was that democratic voters are more likely to find. Allegations against Democrats credible and then endorsing it can punishment and Republican voters. When it comes to allegations against GOP lawmakers and candidates. I'm so. Last week I was thinking back to question. I thought I what was unique at the time was that not many Democrats have outright told him to resign but now I'm of course that's different so I don't know if we would have seen this in response. Words he aimed Republican lawmaker just based on what point shooter and afraid different air. Because this is also each sexual our. Democratic voters in addition to the part self care and our twenty team this keeps her sex are passed. And where it's 80%. Acts at a huge problem compared to just 30%. So I think that at least not the hour news. It's not hire Wheeler Britain stressful year for politicians. You know clause is not acceptable wanna call now wanhatten at. Each. But that's senate Democrats are in this kind of place heard the story says sexual grass and form it is not okay. And yet and it's consistent define. A hero. Politicians there is that an air but. That's alone to weigh in the year. Yet if you enter public can. Politician. And closer. Each. Where Republicans saying. Mean its units to too far. Here inside. Caesar's and asked each. Sick. But it seems like the voter I need at least democratic voters are somewhat divided here Mike Baird did the voters don't seem to be. We have the lawmakers necessary. I mean you appoint last week that he saw this. Weren't a death scene and a lasting one to isolate shake up governor. I'd rather keep him in place ski my vaccine. Didn't Alex at this point last week you know people aren't necessary saying he should it. Resign but they don't want to run for action which kinda seems to signal. I want it right this all members it's. You know had to resign right away and me me me being voters are also not as convinced about this issue. That's are going to think Democrats rip our student Karen about sexual harassment workplace like time. At least in the polls. It's interesting also here debt in the reaction to disease. Accusations and calls for court resign he's. He's blamed cancel culture on the as being responsible. Which we generally think of as more Republican talking point then a democratic talking point. What kind of politics is he trying to play in two years. And it is this is this typical Friday to the turnout that that is also something that resonates with democratic voters but what is the strategy here. On being talked a lot about it is. It's less of a moderate GOP leaders. There is still appeared moderate democratic air the number of Democrats sit down at. Ideal decreased EE has cancer has struck. But you know that the treatment Brooke fortunes also opt out there are moderates so. Nobody gets Alex at teaching to cancel culture heels Democrats. My answer is very sure I was as any I lean toward now. The second I heard. Music and cancel culture my first ballot as Republicans or any eat this up like they have got to love. You know seeing their talking points invalidated as it means for a democratic. Governors in power. Accent I don't know if it's going to courtly way support among growers and basics Harris. You know there is it large share moderate Democrats. And New York teens you. I guess -- more so toward moderate Democrats especially gubernatorial races months. And speaking primary lead chrome. Beatings again extend. So I don't know if it's at playing eighteen gets hit and hotter and it. New York's moderate east me me that was sent honestly I'm not sure what his alternate places. Tactic if you look at. Where all of us support has come from traditionally it's been people of color and mater like visitors and cookies goal here is CU. Hold on to some is mater like Reuters and maybe some people of color. Maybe you know trying to claim that its. That these accusations are false or that. Have been sort of blown out of proportion or something. You know it's all in the effort to hang on what happens. Next year. Democrats in the legislature have started an impeachment inquiry in choose the allegations. Could we see Cuomo be impeached price has our own party. I mean I guess it's. Entirely possible. That the seat legislature could pursue impeachment. And you know between the number Democrats calling for orbiter resign and the fact that there are Republicans. In the seat legislature to might. To impeach or move Cuomo. It is possible that they have the numbers of course its seat it's a big distraction if you try to govern its big distraction if you're trying to you. It passed legislation. To figured. Figure out policies for other things that your even you wanna spend time on sought you know clearly dollars a little bit at the calculus when it came to how. Democrats dealt with impeachment after I became president there regarding trumpeted necessarily want to spend. Weeks and months on further investigation and further debate. About the issue because they wanted T to get to legislating and passing thinks so. That's. That part this calculus I think the Democrats in New York City as well although I will say that one of the things that affected the franc in case for instance and thinking about partisanship. Having it a Democrat. Next in line might make it easier for them to push out Caldwell. With Kathy Hochul there she. She's a Democrat she could become governor. And that. That would keep things in democratic hands so there have been a change in parts of power and obviously in the Minnesota cases democratic governors could appoint a democratic senator in frank its case I think that's got to be part of the calculus as well. I mean this is a fast in story and here. The boats RIT. It's notable at this point in assembly majority leader. Has not call for impeachment as each it's you know the investigation should be played out. Part can't help but one year ago. Genes has been this body for governor when day is part of it you know. Let the investigation. And cleared him now 20/20 two persist stealing has had on. That. And by some T Democrats light. You know people stokes or Nancy clothes not calling for enter. Does that give the others congress to come sports shut it. And that really democratic parties and deal you're 22 and say no harm done right again despite. But because breakthrough weird dynamic former ambitious Democrats in New York is that. If the lieutenant governor takes over Kathy Hochul then. That talking Ogilvy running as an incumbent in 20/20 two. And they wouldn't be facing a wide open field day they may prefer if they're Democrats. So lots of politics calls. I think we'll leave it there. We will see maybe everything well changed once from now when we got there again but in the meantime they use our. Yeah. You know. That Yale. My name is dale hunter Toney chow is in the virtual control room Claire editor Curtis editing. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast it's 530 com and supports the adjustment any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show beavers are reading or review Apple Store. Or tell someone about us thanks for listening and rules. I. I.
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