Will Trump's gains with Latino voters last? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio about their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020.
45:57 | 04/09/21

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Transcript for Will Trump's gains with Latino voters last? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Hello and welcome to the fight dirty politics podcast I'm deal injury. When Donald Trump came under the sea and in 2015. He was talking about how Mexico was in his estimation sending drug dealers rapists across the border. Some analysts assume his rhetoric would be poison for Latino voters. But in 2016. Trump did no worse than Mitt Romney went back route and possibly better depending on the and 20/20 truck improved on his when he sixteen margin with Latino voters by five percentage points according to Apple's. Now Joseph Biden one Latino voters on the whole and easily 65%. To 32% but is people who watch elections no. Trends and margins matter. While trump won the 2016 election. His erosion of support amongst college educated white voters was a harbinger of what was to come for Republicans in 2018. And twenty. There are also examples of these kinds of shares being one often acts like when George W. Bush made big gains would Latinos in 2004. Only to have them very much reports by bombing in 2000. Whether Republican gains amongst Latino voters become a trend or Cingular and will depend on the underlying reasons for these ships and what the parties do that. And that's what we're gonna talk about to. The political research firm excuse research which focuses on Latino political engagement. Recently published a post more looking at how the Latino vote changed in 20/20 and some of the possible reasons why. The co founders of techies research. Welcome thank you so much for helping us. And Carlos figures the senior vice president welcome back ups things. So to begin I mention that the exit polls show trumps margin amongst Latino orders improved arts. But exit polls have shortcomings and limitations especially during the pandemic there were even more complications so it's important to look at other sources of data to fully understand the picture. Which is exactly what you do it so. What did you find and how accurate were those exit polls in the interests are. Racing that you you're right you know a lot and an initial reactions coming out at you know elections in election night for us is that an election center weeks. You really are formed by the exit polls which are historically you know not very accurate especially if you technicals subgroups of Latino voters here are really trying to understand movement just. Segments of the Latino actor or even harder to add to understand and utilized and so part of the work that we've done via her listener research team have really been you know research caves since the election come judging bias theory can see. You know we had. How you know an and is postpartum is really the first and and what will at least be a trilogy. He reached that it will Q I'm Latino vote. And what we as you can print it out Regis really scratched the surface as to what we top might be some of the reasons but we really tackle in the post mortem is. It's what happened what went was this movement trump weird and it happened what subgroups the united it was more or less announced. And and why and starting to get into this hypocrisy. Yes I mean citing exit polls a step noses is deeply triggering to mean especially in the twinkling contacts for the reasons you said yeah. Like bile that's holy do not use the exits. Parochial estimates eight eagle cast was better but like no trump did not win Latinos in North Carolina. For example so is there one thing is we were careful to not say it is the precise level of support in a give and state. We're looking at shifts so for example if you look at the American election. But were little high but because they poll every election you can see the ships. On between that between some other good. S analysis I've seen its combination of precinct data. With polling. I'm you know you have an estimate that's around an eight to nine point dip. In democratic two way support from 316 point 12 on talking terms of margins but these are looking at about. Om eighteen point margins shipped nationally. Obviously that differs by steep so the lowest. Shift was in Maricopa County. Arizona. You see nonexistent. Shift in a place like Georgia. And the highest which we've all talked about a lot now is South Florida and south Texas but also maybe parts of New Jersey. It's just different in a place like New Jersey because you're talking about. Going from Clinton in 90%. To bide an 80% but these are still astronomically one woods almost unsustainably high levels of democratic support. In fact it seems like the exit polls under estimated how much Latino farmers shifted ports trump isn't the point one election. It depends which one you're looking at and it differs by state meets and so on reliable that especially if you then tried to extend that to saying. It was caused by this subgroup movement of that sub group movement is were gets very Dicey. What we have try to do and our post mortem is say let's go back and look at what we can try to nail down now. Which is who did shift on and how bigger shift was that. From what we can tell for in cycle polling and happy kind of say. The limitations of that all kind of in perfect because it then speaks to what what were we missing in the polling. Was the polling apt act you know accurately capturing these trends. But at least it starts to give us a east's better sense of more do you have based sent empirical sense. Who actually was holding back from front. And then ended up closer to trumped by the end of this election. Yet at one of the things you'd included your post mortem which we talked about on this podcast before is probably the best way of telling a power. Figured out how. Bear hardships happen. Is looking at precinct level data basically you know booking acts precincts where a lot of what's you know borders live and seeing how those changes. Evolved from two gotten sixteen to twenty. Listeners are also due starts talking about how much you know borders are not a monolith they have never voted as a bloc and there's a variety of factors that cheap. How they vote. We're these trends isolated to one particular segment of Latino voters a resistance has kind of crossed the. It was definitely across the board anything there were places where we had been tracking. Deep intake from sentiment for example among women throughout the cycle. I'm and women you know shifted in you know on Election Day for truck and taking that it's like in and then over the course of the cycle again we can't solve this. In the college costs divide that existed among the parent general electorate. How did in his current accounts among Latinos. Until you posts and the post election. Were fit to be done. In addition the precinct level announces that that Carson the team that really intended to industry written d.s movement ships around suckers that happened. I think it also be really interesting for us is he going to the next phase of her research which is really going in. State by state you know specifically into Florida and Texas which it that much talked about. To do additional polling on quantitative point and qualitative work there to really can't understand it you know one. You know what what what happened but then also the why and really taking into place like south Texas to understand. You know what were the reasons. You know how much to immigration played into doubt movement how much of that was true in the economy how much moisture and high. Social media how much of it was stricken by you know you know engagement her lack of engagement from different campaigns. And then similarly southward as a whole other peace making that you know what we can see in the big take away if there's one you know top plane takeaways you know that. Listeners to the fact 38 podcaster are more sophisticated and understand that there's a lot of new ones to this electric. But there is one toppling takeaways from the selection as a Latino as proof that we had been missing for very long time which is there aren't a monolith and not just state to state. But there's ideological. Him Jaipur city that relations are in the selection. That we have to really better understand and for a week for which I think. Both Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to make inroads with this community if they'd make a concerted. After it. Yeah and add you know we sell but not a monolith I think is is is that this is when a Montrose. I think. We out Ed kind of a corollary here post election which is not a monolith but still a group. Which is to say is still an identity durst filling group Latino identity actually which when he when he showed was. That in fact there was ships that seem to be unique to. People like identified as Latino that cuts across geography and place of origin right geography plays gorge and people being what people usually point to when they say look you know Panama they want her back Cubans as being different profit up Parikh and being different you want talk. About Florida being different then the southwest. And yet here you saw BP signed shift that seems to car crossed those categories. And speaks go to the way in which fuels are in a monolith. Not as early just by by those variables but in terms ideological diversity. Right I mean this is not. Rocket science in many ways like any group within the electorate does not have. Monolithic views. And so it's interesting to understand the ways in which. I'm yes these are human beings with a wide set of views and attitudes. And yes there are very conservative Latinos the more interest in question you start getting into then. Is why did some conservative Latinos. Not previously support Donald Trump or other Republicans. Yeah I mean do you. Yet as to the case when I get into good stuff. You know and you want to I want any clearer. That in when we talk about the whys of this shift. What we have tried to contribute is how to think about the reasons why to some extent. Because part of what point when he challenged with some of these old fast while assumptions we should it in our haste to get answers jumped to creating new fast while assumptions. But wary can start is this question on conservative because. I think we're hearing a lot of discourse right well what made Latino conservative Latinos shift for Tom dropped when the real question is what had held them back. Before why weren't conservative Latinos. You know there's great re searched as concerns the black vote on this he has great books that fast Democrats. The talks about the ways in which he he racial. Identity outweighs other ideological concerns. I think there's a similar. Thing at play of the T note that there was a sense of Latino identity that was holding people back I think where we can start to hypothesize and we have data that speaks to this. Is the extent to which when Donald Trump comes down the escalator at 116. From the moment he starts making the remarks you mentioned there was a idea established immediately disguising if you look you know. He's anti immigrant and easing until Tino. And this is little more complicated we get into it but you know the ways in which immigration interacts with the identity. I think people are quick to look at it is just east set of policies. And well it Tito's some Latinos vote agree with building the wall and some Latinos don't think don't like Sanctuary Cities whatever it is. When it. And are missing the law or her point that immigration is in easy threshold way to differentiate between two parties and understand. This guy is with me in this guy's not. And to a 2016 that was front senator in a way that we argue it was not front and center in point. Immigration is linking gateways. Drive for a Latino voters it's like it's really trying to understand. Whether they're with us or where whether they're against estimate to say anything you know again that's him because when he sixteen was so in 28 he was so focused. Immigration such a central part of the campaign. When Alderson was sent. He saw something different happen in 20/20 and when you tried it can understand the ways that -- it in the economy and economic shut down. Impacted Latinos and Latino voters and Latino actor perhaps more uniquely. The tears are some of the you know largest part of the and some of the largest entrepreneurship and small business growth in this country. So you know they were uniquely head as small business owners. You know. It essential workers ending Frontline workers you know being exposed to health impacts of that that could have Kobe and the pandemic in a unique way. Sitting there is also you know an interesting way to connect think about the weight that but the combination. We're at this moment in time that we were in right now there are uniquely an acutely affected this community kind of policy should not become more pronounced we as well. I want to did rule out further in tears the question. Immigration. Mean how much do Latino voters care and our immigration in comparison. Where is not nineteen overs because I think it's. Seems to be the assumption amongst Democrats that this is perhaps the highest priority issue of pomp and exactly sure why you know there's lots of non Latino voters in America who are the descendants of immigrants who support restrictive missed immigration policy. But you don't what's that interplay there what is not a wrong is that about assumption on the part of Democrats. Yet it surge of Dixon who was great. Hispanic streets assay. That. People misunderstand it's not it's going to immigration there was gonna come up number one when you ask what's your top Perrier top issue right now. But that it is a threshold question. In the way that if you think of the Cuban voter they're knocking answer to Cuba policy is their number one issue but if you're if you your perceive to be wrong on Cuba. Then you're disqualified from ago if your you know certain segments of Jewish voter in Florida. Answer Israel as a top priority but if you perceive that someone is anti Israel and you're not gonna vote for them. As a letter saying it's a threshold matter in that way its identity question. I'm that. Immigration and even for a voter Puerto Rican voter for whom is not as immediately applicable because Parikh and don't have immigration issue in the same way. One they're in communities where it is an issue. And two that they perceive that when certain kinds of candidates are talking about immigration there are not. Narrowly just talking about it category of undocumented immigrants based on paperwork that they are talking more probably about Hispanics. And about a view cultural change in this country. And that is something that Latino voters have been. Very keyed in on now were the first to say he should not only talk to Latino voters but immigration. But over learning that lesson and saying what and let's not talk about it at all is also mistake. Yeah immigration can be you know. A different cheating issue I'm between Democrats and Republicans. And I think you know the wrong lesson is he going from all this is only talk to Latinos about the economy here don't talk about immigration at all. When Karros is right you know immigration and is always in the back many of Latino voters minds and is seen is. This can keep me threshold issue to try to understand whether or not a particular candidate. You know sees Latinos. As you know and have positive or net negative to society and so you know I think. They're wireless and stay away from the selector anything when of the things you want and presses that you know you know I'm not talking about immigration isn't necessarily the answer either. And that there are you know we're about to going to the funeral plan on an immigration hold here. And the next week or so among Latino voters and you know obviously a lot has shifted and changed in the landscape there's that we want a better understand around. Where it lets you voter sentiment it is today. Ya I wanna go back to your previous point about our sorrow while it is not a monolith there a court that you saw these trends across the port across different. Geographic areas across. Generation after origin etc. etc. but when we try to nail down and kind of what what key indicators of the voters who weren't partnership or preference work turnout when it had previously. Who were the voters that seemed most attracted to trump who had previously. Riker a question. I think studies have as the beginning in our major take away being that a segment of Latino vote is when your than commonly assumed. Now there's a stereotype of the classic swing voter. That picture is white suburban. So trump loses look terrible badly by 21 margin. But he makes gains by appealing to Latino voters were usually on the sidelines of politics. They are swing voters it looked like true swing voters you sit with them books or to take my goodness this really is they swing voter I've actually. Saddled service and thought that we do we do we screen portly for this group because these sound like Democrats but then when you actually asked would you go for the vote for trump. And what we're seeing what are the characteristics right we sauls. That men still are more pro trump than the women for shore but that these sky high levels anti trump sentiment that we had seen among Latina has. And between nineteen. Tacky back down to earth a little bit. I'm as your magic ideology is a BA indicator here. The biggest shifts were among conservative Latinos people here conservative these days and think it just means Republican. I'm among Latinos in particular. As it as a mom novelty of black voters. That's not the case actually the biggest ship was among conservative independents. And you saw shifts and motivation among conservative Democrats. I'm so concerted independence. Seem to have helped back. And then move toward him toward the end and then we found to be one of the most interesting. Is not so much and identity. But in eastern category which is lower propensity voter. You know if you look at people who are lower frequency. Who per modeling or less let these devote. There's a common assumption that those voters are going to be as democratic or likely more democratic than those a regular voters. And what we saw in cycle is those lower propensity voters I'm start to shift toward trial. I'm and so this was a rare situation where increased turnout accrue to the benefit of the Republican. I think a lot of assumptions have been made about which new voters to turnout of Latino voter who's been on the sidelines and non voters here and turnout and Democrat personally will vote Democrat. They think what we saw the cycle. And comparing modeling to what actual to a you know how voters were modeled. And by democratic and progressive modeling. And how it ultimately panned out. There was eight B cap and addiction between those two those who assumed which it you know the Democrats you might think that like. Ultimately there is a the people turnout and Democrat I gave him reaching this boater. And ultimately they were more of a springer frustration factor and needed to be communicated to well before. Yet to reach the preelection and burping potentially reach out to back Republicans answer conservative campaigns. I think that's a really interesting point that you bring up in your post mortar because especially after 2016. The thinking was kind of well heighten our in the upper midwest might be bad for Democrats because a lot of low propensity or non voters there. Our Don white college educated people who would be more tried to trump. But that when you look at states like Arizona Texas Florida that high turnout would actually help Democrats because there are large numbers like tutors who our government's orders or just happen but it previously. This flies in the decent and who does this kind of change how Democrats should be thinking about flipping a state like Texas or eating ground in ST like Florida. And that you know. Kind of just increasing turnout is not the answer like they actually opted persuade voters on the issues. Right and yet and by 530 he and other unique Conant near times others have done great analysis of like this non voter question and the conclusion what Latino. Turnout would automatically be better for Democrats. What happens is you have Latino voters who are treated as a target for registration. And then mobilization. But there is a step in between its education and inspiration he Katie persuasion the team's been missing. And so this to say there are still incredible potential and four Democrats. Really sky high potential among Latinos war still on the site lines of this process. It is still more efficient. To try to get these voters than to try to swing a suburban a certain kind of suburban white reporter it's more affordable relief to I think in these terms. And yet why can't give affordable. About what's cost efficient right like the cost per vote. Trying to flip a suburban white voter is much higher then that of trying to get a Latino. Non voter into the process but. You know you can't be too cheap hand just assume that it all registration game. And whether does have to be some sort of follow up an engagement I think that's. The lesson you can't treat Latinos. Like these little robots that democratic robots that he got to do is plug batteries and and there are not. In lock step turnout for the democratic vote. Under his engagement necessary. Two weeks before the election and I think you know what would. What I hope to see is that you know over the course the next year two years ten years I mean this really is. A challenge and he had an opportunity for both Democrats or Republicans. I'm over the person next decade this electorate is in driving that Meehan this Latinos are frightened population growth their tracking a good part. That their share of the electorate and you know Democrats if they're serious about it should really be approaching an understanding. This electorate. In a similar Quaid with you curiosity an investment as they have placed in diapers because ultimately I think there aren't there's not much to learn and understand. About this part of the electorate. As you mentioned at the start this is the beginning a lot of research that you plan on doing in terms of which you know voters in 20/20 and going forward answer you offer hypotheses as to why we sought shifts. But not definitive answers. And you we talk a little bit about Corbett we talked a little bit about immigration and decreasing in salience in twenty point potentially. BUU offer many hypotheses you mentioned like half dozen or dozen. What are some of the other ideas that you powerful. Ships. Yes a portable we did after election wives talked to folks on the ground in these key states we talked academics like but all agree reporting out there. Look at the data as well and what we're looking at seeing our polling and there was a set of credible hypothesis. Understanding that no one theory was gonna have sports plant where power is probably multiple. I'm working together. But the same time and this is like my favorite post election activity which is people on the phones at what was definitely this list of 25. Pat obsessions that I have been moved. Right it's like it's not when he five things. It's also night. You also if your going hypothesize that it is something like Alexi stimulus checks you have to then also explain why that's unique to Latino voters. Because. Guess what everybody got stimulus check so what is the theory of why than it would have moved to a few waterways and people. And so on our list at the mention the shifting him say elites of immigration and Latino identity. We talked step he talked about the code air economy. People scared of of a polite and shut down. There are other theories along lines of the trump campaign itself the term campaign ran a very aggressive outreach tool to voters. And it is something it was the most aggressive on how rich Latino voters that we've seen in the modern era. Bush gets the reputation for congress Latinos but you know social media. I'm so Donald Trump really able to exploit on the Hispanics trop and materials for trump worked Hughes doing. Online that's not really a matter a message of invitation rightly it purse or penalty of voter who wasn't used to getting an appeal from Republicans here was like out now. Up you'll I'm talking all the times I Hispanic voters and a more vocal from. Latino voter that there was a permission. Structure or. That was created by happening. A very vocal Latino for prompt you know where the didn't happen when sixty let's remember Argentina tried it with -- towards XT. How fast as Ian and cut it was zero past and this time around. You actually get to see the kind of dividend to get it up when actually it's a competitive race I think Republicans in Florida for a while demonstrators is possible. And when the term campaign and others targets for heroes for trump were reaching out to Latino voters what was the message that it would deliver to. A lot of that was on the economy and a lot of that was focused on anything when if things that people maybe. Feel to recognize or don't want to recognize him he flies in the face trying to understand again why there this shift for turn his. In the trunk. Out outside. George W. Bush who probably the last real attempt at reaching. In the Latino vote in in a more strategic way Donald Trump how social media at his disposal he had a campaign who understood how to reach Latinos using digital and and and had additional army. And and lots of digital resources to reach Latinos you know I think one of the things we now and in art and our site decades how. You know Donald Trump. Was one. You know using YouTube in a way that he had to reach its you know voters on on Election Day had. The masthead. YouTube with what it must be who is eight USC fighter her enemy fighter. Hispanic. And that was for a general audience that he news that that was an that was a messenger that you had been using in other you know folks have been using to reach Latino voters. So you know the economy. And you know in particular was was something that the new. You know they don't talk to Latino voters about. You know you saw and places like South Florida. In addition to connect the messaging on the economy and have socialism that you saw. You know this conservative media ecosystems and then you created over here that they didn't stop since you know 2016 in reaching Latino voters. With that your picture that is for patient and that was you know all part of him this while connected. Yes it is influencers in radio and television. Along with you know has the steady drip of information around and disinformation and misinformation around socialism and Joseph Biden so. You have places like M and South Florida where where that kind of approach really I think probably helped to accelerate her could've helped accelerate. What happened. Among Latino voters and specifically among you know Cuban Americans and non Cuban I'm Puerto Rican voters. And that was in addition to just consistent teacher and messaging on the economy that they were doing it through. Yes all of the immediate aftermath analysis of 20/20 it was very much like OK well it was. The socialism appealed to Cubans are venezuelans that was really the deciding factor. What you do in this post mortem as you make it very clear event d.s chefs were not specific to Cubans or venezuelans in particular you kind of break out some of the different groups they're Cubans Puerto Ricans people like American descent. Whether divisions along those. And you know it and you mentioned socialism and I will say socialism was a factor and the way I think we have that. Go back to how what Republicans really mean when they do socialism attack which is not. Just an economic worldview. It's something much broader. That really tries to position itself was counter to the American dream. And it brings and other kind of cultural and racial dimensions to someone say socialism is undoubtedly a factor I think teasing and out requires further research but your question. Not yet so you know Cubans obviously shifted. Back to trump right they were turned to the kind of levels that we it's seen on pre Obama. Now we can look at why but there was even more underperformance among in South Florida among what we called the lot ams which is non Cuban on Rican Hispanic. And what we mean is not been as well ones actually the biggest there are. Colombians. Mexican Americans nicaraguans have been venezuelans your Peruvians and others. And you know if it had only been less well ones. You would not have seen the kind of marginal market difference in my negate its. Because likely he broke in with Colombians nicaraguans. That he was able to see that kind of wild swing and I say swing I mean. Clinton getting about 70%. In these lat am precincts to Joseph Biden getting around 50%. In the same precincts that's a wild swing right and it's so there were other factors there that were built on top of this baseline shift he sees nationally. That speak specifically to the ecosystem Miami. The amount of attention that trump was spending in Miami and what is accelerated concerns about things like that the left. Because of an experience I'm in Latin America the Donald Trump was explicitly tying to this current moment. Use it and there's more on pack on this socialism appeal and that it get sacked perceptions the American dream. Can you talk a little bit more about that you know how one of those Europe socialism playing into this election. Right well. The. Yet the socialism piece I think the one that people focus on first is thinking in terms of Latin American policy like the concern that. Venice well and style policies we brought United States that's like once that if year. And that likely move vessel islands heavily on that influenced in the mindset of Cubans but there's piece of the socialism. That was pushed more broadly. That. Goes. Slightly against sort of the idea idea of pull yourself up by the bootstraps you know. And there is a strand among Latinos. Is really bought into the American dream I mean these are. Some some of these voters are like the last true believers in the Protestant work ethic. It generally speaking. There is a among some young said he talked said he talked often about the trump intrigue of him as a businessman that appeals to certain kind of younger. Latino man. I'm as it does to other young men. Did the kind of Elon Musk. Vision the you can make it in this country self made. Businessman. And talking about socialism is being the count or that socialism being things it is going to be given away for free. Socialism is. Some cultural and economic elites telling you how you can spend your money telling you what books you can read. Telling you what TV shows you should watch what you can say on social media. And that that that's how socialism becomes broader than just. Nationalization of private property and becomes more then gets tied into arguments around cancel culture political correctness. Or even black lies matters. Yeah I mean I think what has talked about me you know it is more inconsistent to the system of socialism just like this you know come. Which is like this this role of capitalism and and making and making it in this country opportunity to be self made person and in again because. But he has really represent us like small business archer can Oriole. Kind of ethos. You know so many especially Latino amendment or repaired. 45 to 55. You don't really view Donald Trump as like this. Self made up by your bootstraps successful businessman that they aspire to be. Not to mention the fact that M you know there is some people think the release. The intrigue to turn to meant she stolen it and think it is actually less driven by a you see gender or it is more like his cult of personality in this is actually something we've seen and and can't start to programs that focus groups given near term has signaled he might run in tweet me for. You know is there any other kind of Republican candidate who pepper presents the same set of ideals or where is this really something that's unique to trump. And what we've at least found some of the initial you know focus group proving that we've done is that same pendant from. Appeal doesn't just now actually transfer to some XE Marco Rubio. So this really is something that you as related to you know trumping and their ability to see him is like at. Somebody who challenges. Whose anti politician who challenges. Conventional wisdom and challenges that we things have been done previously. And has been successful in ways that men need Latinos especially Latino men who are small business owners aspired to. As prior to be successful there isn't a story right before the election about lacking a small business owner in Scranton Pennsylvania. He said the art the deal was his Bible and you know all of the work they attempted to him build his businesses. Was like what he wanted to follow because he wanted to be content in you know can't meet behind for his family. In a successful business empire and this is a small business restaurant business owner in Scranton Pennsylvania. You can you see how there is this kind of relation or S aspiration. To what trump represents. That they think is very unique to him we'll continue a program to look into that and see how this. You both of the personalities have narrative and an attraction. Differentiates from state policy and like the economy. Is something that we'll have to keep kicking into over the course of the next year to. Yet so I think. Board are saying is very unique to track this idea that. He's a successful businessman in artist trust him because he's how successful businesses of course you count it out debated the veracity. Those ideas. But there is something that is also more fundamental to the two parties at this point which it is. Use. Culture and gender and race and things like that. Bet are not necessarily unique to truck maybe you meet the more print outs in the campaign blight. Play in Q8 decades long trend. You know. College educated voters for example trending towards Democrats and college educated voters trending towards Republicans. Dot underlying dynamic and it. Do you see that as as in. Reason to believe that there may be even more shift towards Republicans amongst Latino voters because of course at this point Republicans are not nearly winning. You know not even winning the majority of non college educated Latino partners in the way that they're ringing non college educated. Yours yeah now. At I'm gonna give it caveats as entire section of conversation which is this were re entering into the qualitative slash wild speculation part of things right. That very reason a lot of this is not in the final post mortem Dak because we're still gathering. Additional data behind some of this and and we try to. We try to have a high set high burden of proof that said brigade has come rescission letting it speaks to pump. Again challenging some assumptions. I should say you should your mortgage bull you're more than welcome to come back on the show once you've conducted research with what that you know hear what others but LC five. Yes who knows we will find that is that is if I may call it the fun. Of doing your research in this in this moment. So it to your question if you wanna say some as we can over complicate this matter. I think with trump there was an appeal that if you. Simplify it wise outsider and businessman. He was appealing to a kind of voter who does not have a fully formed partisan identity. Who was not paying attention to all the policy debates. There is have. That is kind of mirror in Bernie Sanders appeal during the primaries on the same voter but it's can kind of voter. Who there was a very simple appeal procedures as outsider shaking things up was going to fight on your side for free health care free college whatever it is. And there's a similar killer trump passed your point of whether that's reputable. When it is just a trend is as a one time occurrence. We don't yet. No I think there is enough evidence that Republicans. Can exploit some of these same dynamics mean again Florida Republicans have been doing it for while Rick Scott. Is that so many ways eight ultra pro type. Does the fact that they have the same pollster coincidence. And Rick Scott who has you know zero charisma. And projects Euro political competence. Though had this image of mom. Florida voters as being an outsider businessman. And he was signaling that he cared through things like for example one part Rico priests and seven times during his I'm last campaign. And so there are you wanna say like we get caught up sometimes in these in these policy debates. And I think the broader question. Does this candidate care about someone like me. And then how is that candidate defining hookah me is like what identity are they trying to tap into. Is is that broader question of the moment and when that is were applicable for Republicans not all Republicans. Except mention mark reveals trying very hard but that trying probably actually blows up in his face because. Voters will tell you in groups he sounds like another politician. Yeah Atlantic in this plane and one person said but it. Similarities and differences between trump and Bernie Sanders because they do think that something that you know as we him. And Arty kind of thinking about moving into the next cycle makes me had her but quite a few different things that Bernie really tapped into in the Latino electorate in the primary. That I think are worth digging into more riches in this notion around free community college education. Health care and when you look at like issues that really mattered to Latinos and what's affecting irritated eyes as the general actor but in particular again that are acutely impacting. Latino voters. One is education in the disproportionate number of people what it is not that if we're here institutions they're getting associates degrees in other certifications from. Community Colleges. An and are competing Unionists are high school. Two is you also have you know one of the highest uninsured populations pre AC it was Latino with was with Latinos. And so you access to free quality health care is something that is always going to be driving an affair. They're thinking and cancer her top and needs and and you know that's I think. And when we look at what was that you Roberson plate Bernie's you know top. Policy priorities that really kind of reach and touch that you voters think and really engage and it was. Q3 community college health care and immigration and as we can move forward eighteen. You can't keeping that in mind as it relates to you I just talked about the economy broadly to Latino voters but also talking very specifically about small businesses and the opportunity small business and entrepreneurship. And then again these other pieces of education health care. So it does take a more holistic approach to thinking about what does matter to Latinos under way and how there are living there greedy eyes since I mean. Then it is just can't simply about him the candidate and whether they're personal pot and and whether there had seen is that. Typical. Politician or somebody who's challenging the status quo I think it's at both ends. Yet and to that then of course Democrats did very well with Latino voters game Maricopa County. But in orders are all. Significant part of why Democrats were able to flip Arizona you also mention that we didn't see some of these ships torts trot in Georgia amongst Latino partners. In the places where we didn't see these ships you know what's the lives there isn't something that Democrats did right. Why didn't see these losses America. Toward. Yeah let's look America but because if you if you go down. If you go down to the present level and you start looking and use are preparing vote totals. How many hosted Donald Trump get into point when he compared between sixteen you do same thing for Joseph Klein compared to Clinton. It gives you sense of the increased turnout everywhere and the extent to which this increase turnout helped. Trop because you have a surge in truck votes everywhere anywhere you look there's this huge surge from. But would have the miracle play is you have the surgeon from boats and anybody surge in democratic votes the kind of rises up to meet. And so you had and clearly an effective mobilization effort. And I think you can credit the organizing infrastructure that's been built up there you can credit the campaign spending the amount of tension that was paid there. I'm you can look at the youth of the electorate and as the writing of factors but there is an example where Democrats were able. Two. I'm combats. This trumps are you can't always control. I'm the part that trump does. But what you can allow as Democrats is an. Which are what this information and what's really happening is one sided propaganda. Through close circuits that Democrats are not accessing and are not competing in. It sorts out one sided piece that's really dangerous I think we had an Arizona was you had an all out war. And groups like the new China Arizona like Arizona wins were showing up in turning out they are people. And were able to us to see minimal trump gain there relative to lease on the please. Yet just wrapping up here you know. When you know you talk a lot about how different the two parties are engaging Latino voters if you kind of high today. You Democrats and Republicans both a message about hiding gates what's you know farmers arrogant to the future but wouldn't be. I think for me fun with Democrats at this point in time it is. Is that they approach. Understanding. Who were Tino voter and Latino voters. With the same level curiosity investment that they have quite some voters it's worth the investment as crusts can get out the cost per vote in the efficiency inept longer term. Is. A good payoff. If they spend the time to do it but if they continue to be cute things as usual. You know again Peter and they think this is has the bigger question of the post mortem is is this a moment in time in the unique status or consist stances that created this anomaly. Where is this a longer term trend and that's something only time will tell. And I don't think Democrats can risk taking that chance. I'm on the Republican side would have just say is that you know I think you're even starting to see some of this plea into the pan current quarter dynamic. It is not overplaying their hand on immigration. They think here is one lesson to learn that come and when take away from you again 2016 to 20/20. Is that you know one thing that you really affected. Latino who voters in 2016 holding back from trump was likely view immigration as we are now. Obviously affected a broader heard at the electorate might swing voters as well. And that you know it's it's it's that tight behind and that type growth but like be cautious not to overpay your hand on immigration. There's a lot of opportunity to continue to reach and engage Latino voters. On the economy but has to be done in and the real and authentic way. And again like this can have the notion of you chomping they anti politician candidate like you can't just come to Latino voters with any candidate. And expect them to expect to connect continued to make the gains that you need among Latino voters in 20/20 with just any Republican candidate. And what do what I'd say 82. Especially Democrats is don't just be fighting the last war cure we are talking about the last election. Buy it. This is a highly dynamic electorate a majority of eligible Latinos didn't choose Biden or trump they chose not to vote. So. We've got the big lesson here is to mind the margins by you look at a poll in UCO two to 60%. But them real movements on the margins is not being picked up in a sample a hundred Latinos. And so I think. One troubling thing you pick up a lot when you do these focus groups when you look at all of the past literature on with no vote is the sense of a guest mentality. A lot of Hispanics. Will say no matter how live in this country until a guest here a good on somebody else's home. Earlier it's a meals home you don't sit down without permission much less start to move around the furniture. As of that date be challenge for a democracy to overcome that disconnect. Between voters who feel like. And their government and their parties in these campaigns and so big part of this is inviting Latinos. To the table. I'm and that invitation is incredibly powerful as we saw on two point when he and there's a lesson that there are gains are to be had for both parties. If they continue to help Latinos feel old knives included but court in power within their coalitions. Our role let's leave it there thank you Stephanie carlin's. Thank you thank you. Sadly Valencia and Carlos Padilla are the co founders of the political research firm eighties research. My name is electorate turn each out as in the virtual control room cleared editor Curtis and audio editing. You get in touch by emailing us at podcasts I 3COM. Of course greeted us when any questions or comments. If your fan of the show Revis a rating reviewed apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and. And and.

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