WEBVTT

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Galen, recent
polling from ABC News

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found 80% of Trump
supporters say

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that they would
continue to support

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him regardless of a conviction.

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But 16% said that they would
reconsider if he was convicted.

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How significant is that
when it comes to November?

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Could that change the election?

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GALEN DRUKE: I think
it's significant.

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We will in due
time, get new polls.

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DIANE MACEDO: I
want the numbers.

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So we'll be actually able
to see how the numbers evolve.

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I want to say a couple of
things about the polling

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before this came out.

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So we do see that there are
voters who are willing to change

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their minds as a
result. In fact,

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in an average of polls shortly
before this verdict came out,

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Trump was leading
nationally by one.

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But when you asked if
Trump is found guilty

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in this specific case,
how would you vote,

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it shifts the election seven
whole points nationally

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to a Biden lead of six.

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But there are a lot of
caveats that come with that.

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One, hypothetical
polling questions,

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it can be hard for them to
get at the root of the matter

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once the event actually happens.

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Americans thinking in advance,
this is how I might feel,

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could be very different from
how they feel in the moment.

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The other thing I'll say
is a lot of that reason

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that Biden goes up in the polls
is not because Trump supporters

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are switching to Biden,
but because their parking

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their support for the
time being in I don't know

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or somebody else.

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So this isn't necessarily making
Trump supporters say, well,

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I was going to vote for Trump,
but now that this happened,

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I'm going to vote for Biden.

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It's more along the
lines of I was planning

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on voting for Trump,
but now I feel a little

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uncomfortable with that.

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And over the next
five months, I would

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say there's a decent chance
that most of those people

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end up finding themselves
back at supporting Trump.

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But of course, we
don't know what

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the next five months will bring