Voters don't like Biden's economy — but why?
In focus groups, we asked undecided voters about their views on the economy.
Americans have been sour on the economy since President Joe Biden was sworn into office. As we head into an election season that is likely to be a 2020 rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump, voters give Republicans and Trump an edge on economic issues. An April 12-14 poll from Echelon Insights found that 57 percent of all voters somewhat or strongly disapproved of the way Biden is handling the economy, and favored Trump on making the economy work better by 48 percent to 40 percent. That's only a recent example of what surveys have routinely shown: Voters aren't happy with Biden's handling of the economy.
But what exactly are voters disapproving of? What do they mean when they talk about the economy? Therein lies a disconnect between most economic indicators that economists consider — things like GDP, the unemployment rate, job growth and inflation — which are all looking up, and how voters feel. When voters measure economic well-being, they're much more likely to use more personal metrics, such as how easily their family can meet their basic needs. That can be more of a feeling than an exact calculation, and right now, the Biden reelection campaign is battling the general sense that everything has gotten a little bit worse.
Partnering with 538, PerryUndem, a nonpartisan research firm, spoke to 16 voters in two different focus groups to ask more about what they mean when they talk about "the economy."* The answer was mostly that they felt they'd been better off financially four years ago than they were today, and a lot of that had to do with the cost of living, including persistent high prices at the grocery store and gas pump and for bigger costs like housing and higher education. The two groups were made up of undecided voters who were leaning toward Trump and undecided voters leaning toward Biden. In general, most Trump leaners said that Trump was better on the economy. Biden leaners, meanwhile, wanted to vote for Biden despite their feelings about the economy.
In the Trump-leaning group, one voter in Georgia, Veronica, named inflation and increasing interest rates as a major problem, and felt that Trump had done better in office because he was all about business. Another Trump-leaning voter said that when Trump was in the White House, "he seemed to have a better grab when it comes to the financial situation." Generally, they agreed that their own financial situation was better during Trump's four years in office, and they could afford more.
The Biden leaners largely agreed but were more specific. "The cost of living, it's just, it's crazy," said a voter who owns his own business, and who said his family members and friends were especially struggling because their wages hadn't kept up.
Because of high prices for things like rent and other goods, many voters said they were making hard decisions about other priorities. "OK, so do I save for my retirement because I'm getting old, but then my kid is now 18, and she needs to go to college and then I have two other ones coming up right behind her … so do I save enough for that?" said Claudia, a voter from Virginia. "You either have to plan for you or plan for your kids."
Another Biden leaner said she and her family could barely afford groceries on their strict budget, and that, when Trump was in office, their retirement accounts did better. But, she added, economics wasn't the only reason she'd vote for a candidate. A Biden leaner in Arizona, Pamela, who is disabled, said in a follow-up interview she couldn't even afford her own place and had to rent a room, but she said she thought her own situation would be worse under Trump because she thought he would cut her Social Security Disability Insurance. (Trump has promised to make cuts to various entitlement programs.)
Of course, a president only has so much influence over economic conditions. The power a president does have is indirect, and relates to how their policies influence outcomes over time. When it came to what these voters wanted to see the president do about the economy, both groups were less specific, and many couldn't name the exact policies they wanted to see. One exception was that, across both groups, many voters agreed that they wanted to see less money spent on other countries, like Ukraine and Israel. "I don't want to hear any more about countries outside of the United States," said a North Carolina voter who asked that her name not be used. "I don't care anymore about the war in the Ukraine. I don't care about Israel, and I don't care about China. I want to hear specifically more about the middle class in the United States," she said.
Another Trump leaner thought government spending was too high and was depressing the economy, and that the government was giving too much away on programs like student loan forgiveness. (Many economists think the contrary: The student loan payment pause during the COVID-19 pandemic boosted the economy by encouraging those who didn't have to make their monthly loan payments to spend more. Canceling student debt could do the same for borrowers affected.) He and another Trump leaner thought the U.S. wasn't using its "own resources" — in other words, drilling for oil. Trump had supported the building of the Keystone Pipeline, they remembered, and Biden had canceled permits for the project. This voter thought that the increased production would have had an effect on gas prices, and because Trump has promised to expand oil drilling, he believed that will help. (The truth is more complicated. Oil and gas production is affected by the global market, and the industries have boomed since Biden's administration began.)
The North Carolina voter who asked not to be named also felt that Trump had vowed to hire American workers first. (Trump had stated this as a goal of his administration, and signed executive orders and issued guidance limiting immigration programs that hire foreign workers.) As an IT worker, she sees jobs like hers going overseas and is nervous about layoffs. She said her firm had a harder time hiring foreign workers under Trump and an easier time since Biden took office, which resulted in offshoring more jobs, and believed that had to do with changes in federal regulations. She was not specific about what those were, however.
For the Biden leaners, the solution they wanted from Biden was to hear more about his plan for the middle class. "[Biden] fixed a couple of things, but there's so much more," Claudia said in a follow-up interview. "Nobody has sat there and said, 'This is my plan, this is what I want the United States to look like, this is what I would like to see happen to the American people." Most gave Biden credit for some improvements in the economy since he took office, but wanted to see more understanding and passion from him about what it was like for the middle class right now. "When I hear the campaigns' [messages], it has nothing to do with the important topics for me and my family," Claudia said. "I want to know how the future is looking for my kids."
The truth is, few could point to the exact economic problems they wanted to see resolved, or name the tactics they thought Biden or Trump could employ to help resolve them. This was true even when it came to issues like retirement savings that affected them personally. In general, they are feeling the burden of hardships and want something to be done, but those general vibes are difficult to address.
Economic sentiment has been improving in recent months, but it's still relatively low among most voters. It will likely remain a challenge for the Biden campaign, and a plus for Trump's campaign, barring huge shifts in the months ahead.
Footnote
*We also followed up with a few in separate interviews, and those voters agreed to be identified by name.
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