Why It's Tough To Count Florida's Latino Voters

As the Herald writes: "The sheer response rate and strong backing for Romney among voters of Cuban ancestry has cropped up in other Florida polls. Together, the polls could be detecting an unrivaled intensity for the Republican ticket that could help keep Obama from a second Florida win — and therefore a second-term in the White House."

But on the other hand the polls could be over counting Cubans and undercounting Puerto Ricans and other Latino voters more inclined to vote for Obama.

Matt Barreto, a pollster with political opinion research firm Latino Decisions, recently said that Cuban and Puerto Rican turnout could be more even than the 10-point gap contained in the Herald/FIU poll.

"While Cuban-Americans used to comprise a majority of Latinos in Florida, today only 29 percent of all Latinos in Florida are Cuban, and while they do have slightly higher rates of participation we expect around 35 percent of all Latino voters will be of Cuban ancestry," he told ABC/Univision when the last Herald poll was released two weeks ago. "Today, the Florida Latino electorate is far more diverse than it was 12 years ago."

In any case, we won't know the outcome until Election Day. And as the old cliche goes, turnout will be key. But how the Florida Hispanic vote breaks down could tell us a lot about the winner, and why he won.

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