Mexico's Zetas Gang Is on The Ropes With Top Dog Arrested

July 16, 2013— -- The Mexican government may have dealt a crippling blow to one of that country's biggest drug gangs on Monday when it captured Zetas leader Miguel Angel Trevino.

Trevino is believed to have taken control of the Zetas operations following last year's killing of its longtime leader, Heriberto Lazcano.

Known as Z-40, this feared gangster ran smuggling corridors that stretched from Guatemala to the Texas border. He became famous for torturing his opponents and inciting massive executions in towns like Nuevo Laredo and Veracruz, and is even wanted in the U.S. for ordering murders in southern Texas.

Trevino was not just a drug dealer. He also helped the Zetas to expand from drug trafficking to other activities like kidnapping immigrants for ransom. He's even wanted for the mass execution of 72 immigrants who were found in a mass grave in northern Mexico in 2010.

Now, Trevino's arrest is sparking widespread speculation on the future of his organization.

The Zetas who, just two years ago, were described by analysts as the drug cartel that had the greatest presence in Mexican territory, are starting to fracture. This goes back to internal issues that started in early 2012 when disputes arose between Trevino and Lazcano.

Security analysts say that the internal conflict intensified after Lazcano was killed by Mexican marines in October of 2012. At the time, Trevino's followers and Lazcano's followers accused each other of being sellouts.

So what happens now?

Here's what some experts are saying about the Zetas' future, and how Trevino's capture will shape the drug business in Mexico.

Animal Politico

This Mexican news site was one of the first to analyze the implications of Z-40's demise. It says that the capture of Trevino leaves the Zetas with little "room to act," as the group only has four leaders left who have the capacity to control drug routes, and cells of armed men around the country.

"The greatest problem facing the Zetas is that the [drug] routes [controlled by this organization] heading to the U.S. were mainly controlled by Z-40," Animal Politico points out.

Insight Crime

Insight, which focuses on organized crime in the Western Hemisphere, anticipates that Trevino's demise will lead to an outbreak of violence, as lower ranking members of the Zetas gang try to secure control over Trevino's drug routes.

Insight says that one area that might be particularly hard hit is the town of Nuevo Laredo, just across from the Texas border, where Trevino was most influential. It says that Trevino's capture may also provide an opportunity for the Sinaloa cartel to bust its way into Nuevo Laredo, where some 10,000 trucks cross into the U.S each day and provide ample opportunities for drug smuggling.

Insight also says that with Trevino's capture the Zetas are likely to disintegrate into smaller factions.

"Miguel Treviño may have been the final stitch that held what was left of this disparate federation together… In many ways, the Zetas are following a larger trend in Mexico, and indeed the region, of fragmentation. Large scale, vertically integrated organizations are going the way of the dinosaur."

Alejandro Hope

Hope, a well-known Mexican security analyst, says that while Trevino's capture might unleash infighting and violence it does make sense, on some occasions, for the government to go after cartel bosses.