Ad Track: Networks find ads for fall shows a tough sell

NEW YORK -- Add advertising to the long list of items that aren't selling these days. As the fall TV season fast approaches, ad inventory for the shows still sits around like unsold houses, cars and clothes.

The spring "upfront" ad sales season has become the summer ad sales stalemate. Ad buyers and sellers typically move about $9 billion worth of ad inventory before Memorial Day.

This year, while some deals are just starting to trickle in, the networks and advertisers remain at odds over pricing:

•Advertisers want double-digit discounts.

•Media-buying agencies that help broker the deals for ad time think more moderate discounts of 7% to 8% would be realistic.

•The broadcast TV networks are holding out for cuts of no more than 1% to 2%.

Sales of fall ad time are "moving at a glacial pace," says Elizabeth Herbst-Brady, president of Magna, which handles buying for dozens of national advertisers.

"We are in an unprecedented time, and so it is certainly not a surprise that everyone is proceeding cautiously, prudently, intelligently and is under even more pressure to deliver meaningful results," she says.

In recent years, the broadcast networks have survived a writers strike and new ratings systems that take into account delayed viewing. But ad watcher and researcher Brad Adgate wonders how the networks can pull through the economic downturn, which is expected to slash 10% of ad spending this year. He expects that revenue from the upfront could be down by as much as 14%, to $7.2 billion, vs. last year.

"Every year it's something," says Adgate, senior vice president of research at Horizon Media. "Somehow, some way, the networks always look good when all is said and done. But maybe the economy is something they can't overcome."

The economy is threatening TV ad sales just as they've been challenged by the rise of online social media and mobile advertising.

For years, networks showcased their new shows, and advertisers lined up to buy into the programming. An early buy typically provides audience guarantees and better prices than advertisers can get when they buy on the fly. If they don't buy in the upfront, they may face higher prices for whatever ad inventory remains in the so-called scatter market.