Index of Leading Indicators Falls Again

W A S H I N G T O N, Dec. 27 -- An important measure of the future health of theU.S. economy fell 0.2 percent in November, suggesting economicgrowth will continue to slow through the first part of next year.

The New York-based Conference Board said today that itsComposite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined to 105.3 inNovember after falling 0.3 percent in October and rising 0.1percent in September, according to revised data.

November’s decrease was in line with analysts’ forecasts.

The index is closely watched because it gives an indicationwhere the overall U.S. economy is headed in the next three to sixmonths.

Economy Continues to Cool

”The indicators are pointing to significantly slower growth inthe first half of 2001,” said Ken Goldstein, the ConferenceBoard’s chief economist. “The economy continues to cool off andthere are now some job vacancies with no one to fill them.”

The Conference Board report is the latest sign that theonce-sizzling economy is cooling down, that consumers are spendingless and that the stock market is turning more bearish.

The index reached its high of 106.3 in January, but has falleneight times since. It is down 0.4 percent from a year ago, makingit the index’s first down year in three years. The index gained 1.5percent to 2 percent annually the three previous years.

Falling Indicators

Five of the 10 indicators that comprise the leading indicatorsindex fell in November. The biggest drop was seen in the categoryof average weekly initial unemployment insurance claims.

The other indicators that fell were: average work weekproduction, manufacturers’ new orders, vendor performance and stockprices.

The board said today that its Index of CoincidentIndicators, which gauges current economic activity, rose 0.1percent in November to 116.3 after decreasing 0.1 percent inOctober.

The Index of Lagging Indicators, which reflects changes thathave already occurred, increased by 0.3 percent to 106.4 afterrising 0.3 percent in October.