Shopping Season Off to Strong, But Uncertain Start

Dec. 1 -- The nation's stores were crowded on the day after Thanksgiving, but it's still too early to say whether the 2003 holiday shopping season will be a boom or a bust.

Shoppers lined up early Friday to take advantage of stores offering early-bird specials and other incentives. According to retail consulting firm ShopperTrak, sales on Black Friday totaled $7.2 billion, up 4.8 percent from the same day in 2002, while Saturday added $5.2 billion to the tally. Sales for the rest of the three-day Thanksgiving weekend appeared to have slowed, but malls still reported decent crowds.

The National Retail Federation —which represents more than 1.4 million retailers — is forecasting overall sales growth of 5.7 percent this holiday season. Sales grow each year, but last year's growth was a meager 2.2 percent. So while this year's Black Friday showing was strong, consider this — Black Friday 2002 also racked up strong sales and the 2002 shopping season ended up being the worst in decades.

While Black Friday is traditionally seen as the start of the holiday shopping season, retailers actually define the "holiday shopping season" as the full months of November and December. And those two months are important, accounting for 25 percent to 40 percent of annual sales for some stores.

Cautious Outlook

Retailers had a great summer. Consumers armed with child tax credit checks hit the stores running in August and the beginning of September, but sales have pulled back since then. While the industry is optimistic this holiday season will be stronger than in 2002, many retailers are being more cautious in their own forecasts.

Wal-Mart, the nation's biggest retailer, had a strong Black Friday, seeing sales up about 6 percent from last year. The retail giant, which accounts for 7 percent of total sales nationwide, is forecasting a modest 3-5 percent increase in overall sales for the rest of the year.