Transcript for Countdown to the Oscars
It in all. Are now behind it and we are prophetic panel but the thought about how apt. Just one week away all from I. It also hosted 88 own pop quote of the day you have to say who aren't and talk online. And you guys. First of all the British or it's right that the American audiences in the way that they well August through why the captain there. Student actors are one of a few different wars that end up being pretty predictive of who historically is going on when an Oscar. He's got a horse like that Screen Actors Guild award which couple differently best actor best actress they're very very good predictors of who actually isn't went. When it comes to let the film itself when it comes to animation when it comes to a few these rules but that does have proven to be somewhat prophetic when it comes to eventually who goes on to win. An academy ward so it's also the last one we get. Kennedy were voting started on Monday that destruct on Sunday you're looking for good press to get depressed he went so it's really just kind of a last ditch attempt to get reminded voters. A word of the day by the way is prophetic everywhere I have to try to use it. And they were not. You have. And didn't tell and actually supporting actor category has heard in. You have to stop for me and I think. And CEO. To me means nothing. Because that town is British. So I think they show. Favoritism. Or wrong but it is now there's at least. Her. They I think the white released when Adam office in the case while Sony look it he's it doesn't if you London based accurate Islam. It begins may not have had an including its and is one but you may not actually had an cultural penetration. We. I was released. Eight Mars because he was. The only person in the Jeff Bridges and Michael stagnant. Why you have to popularity and there. I'm hello good book and my favorite is not. I'm going to. I. Your recent acid. Ha. I thought. I. And I don't know elect. And it. Yeah yeah yeah. I. And we. Them. My. Yeah. It. Grabs. Me. Oh well. I don't know. That's an. Fine and but it category and supporting actors. All. Some the best supporting actors isn't super weird category in this is that the most predictable or historically. Is the freaking Golden Globe right and in it has twice here's the person won the Golden Globe. Pet has been those particular event for sag. And a 59%. I think of these desperate actor winners went on when he Oscar that's right failures it's it's pretty good predictor Jones being real low level some corporate boards just look at your watch is the Golden Globe Erica Johnson not nominating. This after went that on the sat what you martial arts. But you know wouldn't we miss something I mean I usually with sex before that. It's usually the dullest all awards shows I don't know what else their interest and they look miserable. But unless it's. They all decided that he did trump and everybody was in say they hit trial right. And rehearsal for the first time in his acceptance speeches just nail. He got up there instead I converted I'm a Muslim. I am somebody whose mother is minister. And she has no problem let me. And I just thought that was it. Because you have to realize at this point. They've forgotten with the you're good or bad. They basically what they say they believe they can't do my life he who didn't want to hear you talking can't do it wanted to this. Think he did it. By accident he also gave the best performances support. I haven't. However what you are writing about them everything you'd think our parties are locked. He. Knows when pressed on every category to best picture best director and supporting. Any major objections to those of us that. Yes. I'm Gil Davis is FR lay ahead in fences. Again she may be banning illiterate class and you can argue whether or not a role with facts supporting but. Thing is he's one everything's of art here's record at this point this picture is very difficult to build argument that Rollins went. You've got a situation where one was the major wars in these categories were not nominated its closest competition not went. So you kind of have. Looks pretty slow process to a coronation and we Gwinnett Directors Guild of America as well as abilities were steaming she's old definitely sixty. Oh. I do. That's just the way that it skull and argue. Things that. It has. To. There's no pot I don't. Our. This is that'll has no idea. I. And I'll see. Yeah I. The and went managed three. And got up. Colorado Martin I don't. That I. East. And it. I. May be angry with him three years is the largest branch in the academy Madeleine of people the actors. And the actors that they want us at work best cast an Azeri caste based movie as opposed to Brigham which is very. Duo Kennedy's right. Bum you eat there is definitely momentum behind that when mortars and it's a movement Manchester Tennessee just given that the largest branch the that it works and correlate them. Abusive language violence these days but it still. Aids it's the one they actually did honored. Very so I'm Natalie yeah the other one like. Dear just you don't see that apparently the way the voting works is a rank. Preference aren't right and all eat I would actually mean there's a strong chance that median of fears winds up first dollar second ballot. The way they reorganize the votes it was a massive majority of these consent space films and and winning recently. Soledad that I think is allowing would potentially shots rang out or just the how how do the how. To charts Walt. And Uga now yeah. Com. So did they vote in at an interest away. Is simply that they assurance that we. Anyway it is that you make a ranked you rank all the phils that you have seen risk rate let's say that my favorites over the years moonlight. A for the number one that's in my second ever only are low enough that number two Seles or Italy. That what to do is they sent along Pressler skippers. The press trust corporate basically cast about the candidates every single ballot and who they'll only the first choice and an AC is someone doesn't have an outright majority if the answers now. But think the lowest one. And in the re apportion those votes to Alter second place people rates relative to our water gets as the lowest number of votes to look at every Heller and what are voters second place vote. Anna give those ballots to other ethics. And that way. That even if it's your first with your second to his or even your third choice to fill it draws the largest consensus from a majority of people in the academy because they'll repeat this process time and time again. Video get down to the final three films. Andy the assailant though it goes La La land and moonlight and Manchester-By-The-Sea. And management's he gets re appropriated and then. You can have a situation where it will legends are winning because again a majority people the largest consensus based preference ranged voting thing. We're eight you do kind of have this tendency to mean you have this tendency to respondents popular. So the question that we ask ourselves not. What is everybody's favorite movie Islamic used to be the case prior to when they meet this rule change has denied the question is what movie has the highest ancestry even if every even if a third people's data releases figures there to people's fears would be is my third of the people's it would be legitimacy. If everybody second favorite movie is lolly lolly and has an advantage in this or. This way. Shouldn't draw charts yeah. Now I'm that and I think that it was inconvenient and what is art and is up. That. Feeling good. Member and in. That event that that others that are much larger audience quite the lower. It's sad as about 7000. Think of boulders that this great thing is that gilts. Nominee so the actors known actors and film editors and vice Versa but everybody gets to vote. I was having an agreement isn't. Speech. I say if he. If the actors. Actually nominated her. That she and chances scoring an upset which instantly I still think that a lot of them never see what the movies anyway. Like when Julianne Moore one I think they do she told me once it was. A lot of people who are my friends. Thought I must be it still in are it's my time. And so you get that and a lot of people feel well everybody thinks there is one of the great actresses or so. Maybe at a stone is really gotten to as many more chances. And I and craziness. That vote. You know Angela limping supposed to be healed one right but hidden speakers comes along also feel good movie and and not think of it but and I saw this Kareem to com reporter. Which was it. And in some. Fundamentally interesting ways especially in terms of John Legend being the only person of color in the movie had a heart. And saying that part. Was. So that he portrayed it jazz musician who sold out to be success. And so that it was an attack and it that's coming pretty late in the game but they are boating. So. All right yeah I really heat wrap. Actually read. I didn't candidates but yes this is another way to and it kind of pointedly criticize what. What is the problem issues which. And even an academy take all things into Kathy mentioned that has begun an eight every move. Yeah the op Ed that it's taking into account and other things extracurricular. I would I know eight. Set the timing of this is exactly right yes so that if they're looking in relation to this morning. And they're just about to fill out a ballot but they have. They have going to Walt preferential thing yet it have to have something in the number twos but. That they really feeling good about and that everybody was feeling good thing that exist I really don't tell. Me. Also how last. This is this is a fascinating it's. It's it's it's crazy it's basically so let's say you're an actor. And you bill does that even active in past years this are eligible being academy you have been nominated which automatically get you consideration but you just you know working acts not get you consideration yes automatically but it is so if you don't want it to dry it's fun. So you need to have to people who are willing to sponsor you or application to join the who are in the yet told pulls out fantastic so you have to friends. And he needs to lobby this board three people and the three people who run the acting breath right now are Annette Benning. Tom Hanks and lowered their and so you can invest Tom Hanks Annette Bening and Laura Dern that you are worthy and and they represent your paper and they send it to the academy board we. And. She really liked that figure out what they accept. Them. I. Certain actors couldn't be members. Members neighbor remembers who bought happen. And headed home. Academy executive work groups which is three people from every branch of the enemy plus the executive board if they can be cool. Eager you get here invitation only April I think an anti terrorist downer accepted it. 684. People were on bike. To join the academy this year after reaction to Oscar's why I'm asks if ever you've got more women. You have more people Kyl are you had to let. 7600. I don't think we're ready yet for the dramatic change. Oh it's it's ridiculous Patrick. Duty to response and that's why actors yet is pretty cool Melanie folks handling. You have a body of work in production design you need to jump through its priest and they're not supposed to say they were actually. Invited it and there's all kinds of things that you have to pay eight with loved. Back in the car the error once you're on the Stell was brought before or. Attendees that are now or have you ever been a member of the Communist Party and he said they don't allow us to. Town and he's it's I was felt in an up and Corey. I don't and babies just the world. Don't know hate well it back. The secrets of talks. At picture. It. I. It. Oh. The. And there. That's a line look at the the that. We all decided it hasn't supporting all these Whitney. Recently can cry. Are real Harding rolls. And it. Senior. We have history. Yeah so. This time it's based on best actor and like that that's a whole conversation for breast bats my favorite one is Kubel entities strains won an animation. Got its first big W season. It's still pretty kind of far behind it to be when it was that this kind of campaign is against abuse. And happy priest that he martial art book investment intermediaries have rescinded that he who the. Oh. Us. Non. Professional. If you don't defeat and I just think that. Yes that you want to put some excitement something happen and it and that possibility. Exists. You. There. But the. So let me just say that he's excellent. Favorite again voters that he's got about a 60% pleasantly when it. That's a good probably but I remember couple of people that stand the 60% chance of winning. And the ideas I just don't know late what's gonna happen this time around is it we could view. If you view he embers the field it's very interesting race if you do use timbers is Denzel it's difficult kind of see what arson fires right. And so I don't know I think it's more interesting and I would not be shocked if they want but I also wouldn't be super shock to heal us. The actors aren't voted on this in ways best picture if you were voted on the brink preference ordering. I'm very certain he would not win the notion that there were below its sentence was this for his own. Split decisions but. Odd given that there are strict morality even easy to win more votes than everyone else some activities editors chance but I think it's far sir. Or OJ edge. Yes it was not nominee for her. So did a similar to angeles'. But I mean I would it was and he was always between OJ and thirteen and then suddenly we saw. I am not unique or. And end it's just a great movie isn't great and BP are all three of those movies are basically the same thing. And what are they gonna do what which one did they seem more or which one is more familiar to them going to be. But definition it's obviously one Marcus at seven hours and twenty. In his car I and is cinema is bad. Agent. Without. The he. And it. It. I think given that it got hat like that the documentary channel nominating race but the economic actors documentaries nominated. I think that's where they would have gotten caught up on those currently. Rule based hang outs and community. One not an experience than I think that. Dealing. Controversy is not going to be says those such big deal. I just case. It's something she said it was yelling patriotism something. Do without its I didn't. Yes I think I don't know if they're needed the human book again and any really happen we don't get. You know. People vote I'm going to you can tell us this and it there's a it's the fourteen nominations Frontline. Which is tie the record. So the idea is how many of those fourteen this. And actually we and you start them. Oh right it's not Ryan Gosling X which is decided it was in self portraits yet halfway right they have to know that. And so what else best original screenplay is land vs Manchester. Which people. And why we. So I kind of am an 82 outs. All out. Now. Than them. And that. Look. Me and she's enough ice cold last when the nets that. I think. They think it. Press writes you know let. It. That's actually a maximum did too long pressed I stand my. Now whenever Mike McConnell is going to be everything each. Person's needs. Its. Any better than the speech that he did this act that was typical rates. And this backwards which is separate and Washington decided not to be political. Every when including the great theorist of political science Ashton Kutcher who opened the show and said. About immigration not in my America. That was that they. Sister eighth grade. Payton Kidd rhetoric Peter Travers. It and and you guys think they're doing it always go to abcnews.com. Or more under awards coverage coming back here and since it ain't no. Fourth at or at just over one week away with the fact that.
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