Clinton's 'Narrow Path' to Nomination Hinges on Pa.

Key strategist says Clinton can stay, but needs big wins in Pa., Ind.

ByABC News via logo
March 29, 2008, 11:03 AM

Mar. 29, 2008— -- As fellow Democrats begin to pressure Sen. Hillary Clinton to concede the nomination to Sen. Barack Obama, Clinton says she has no plans to step aside. And a top Democratic strategist says she still has a chance, albeit a narrow one.

"She has every right to go on," said Democratic strategist Bob Shrum on "Good Morning America Weekend Edition." "She just has very little chance of winning."

"What she has to do is win Pennsylvania very big -- not by 10 points, but 15 to 20 -- so she can narrow that popular vote margin," said Shrum, a former adviser to Sen. John Kerry's 2004 presidenital bid. "She has to defy expectations … win Indiana and show she's doing better, significantly better than Obama is, over John McCain.

"What worries me as a Democrat," he added, "is if we get to North Carolina and Obama wins ... and it's clear that he's going to win the pledged delegates, the super delegates are not going to overturn the pledged delegates. … We're not going to say, 'Let's see what electoral votes were assigned to the states that were won, because that proves you can carry them in the fall.'"

Shrum's comments go against an argument made earlier this week by Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.

"Who carries the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that's how we choose the president of the United States," Bayh said in an interview on CNN.

How long the race goes on could well depend on Pennsylvania, a state that's been described as "Ohio on steroids," and is full of aging, white, working class voters, who have tended to favor Clinton.

The Clinton camp is arguing that electability comes from winning battleground states like Pennsylvania, where she currently holds a double-digit lead over Obama.

Obama is hoping an endorsement this week by the state's popular junior senator, Bob Casey, could help him win over some of those voters.

Today, Obama kicked off a six-day tour through the state and is currently outspending Clinton there, two to one.