Was North Korean Nuclear Test Real or Faked?
Oct. 11, 2006 — -- With threats of new tests on the horizon, scientists are scrambling to confirm the validity of North Korea's claim that it conducted a nuclear test Monday night.
The biggest problem for the world's experts in solving the puzzle is that they have no access to the test site.
The most definitive proof of an underground nuclear explosion is found by drilling down into the test site and taking a core sample.
Air samples are the next best tool for confirming nuclear tests. Using highly sophisticated planes, the United States is attempting to collect any radioactive material that may have inadvertently escaped into the air.
However, experts said it was not likely any debris leaked out because of the small size of the explosion.
Seismic tests can also be used. In underground explosions, a device is placed at the bottom of a long shaft up to a half-mile below ground. When the device is detonated, shock waves are sent out and register at seismic monitoring stations around the world.
"We're thrown back on these seismic tests, which will take several days to two weeks to fully analyze," said David Siegrist, a senior research fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
In the case of North Korea, the seismic pattern was clearly man-made and not an earthquake, some experts believe.
But those readings also present the real puzzle. The blast, which is estimated at between one-half and 1 kiloton and is 20 times smaller than the blast at Hiroshima, was significantly smaller than typical underground explosions.
Still, the small size of the explosion does not automatically mean that it's fake. Creating an explosion that size with conventional weapons would take roughly 500 explosive-packed trucks the size of the one used in the Oklahoma City bombing.
"There would be the difficulties in assembling that great amount of TNT without the U.S. seeing it and seeing that it was a fake," Siegrist said.
Scientists believe the most-likely scenario was that a partial nuclear explosion occurred, but that it didn't work exactly correctly.
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