Preparing for a Bird Flu Pandemic

June 6, 2006 — -- The Bush administration assumes that a deadly bird flu pandemic is coming.

The worst-case scenario is a repeat of the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918 that infected more than one in four Americans and resulted in the deaths of about 675,000 in this country alone.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt said today that he must assume that a similar outbreak is coming soon. The problem, he said, is "we don't know if we are at 1905 right now, or 1917."

Scientists say that the influenza strain known as H5N1 that is infecting birds in various parts of the globe now may never make the leap from bird-to-bird transmission to human-to-human transmission that could lead to a catastrophic outbreak.

If so, the fear of a bird flu pandemic may be misdirected, but that does not mean we shouldn't be be prepared.

Leavitt said history should be the guide. Some pandemic -- whether it is H5N1 or another virus -- is virtually inevitable.

"There were 10 pandemics in the last 300 years. Three in the last 100 years. There is no reason to think the 21st century will be different," Leavitt said.

When and whether a pandemic comes, the Bush administration knows that many Americans will get their information from news outlets. With that in mind, the White House is holding briefings with reporters who are likely to play a key role in that coverage.

At a briefing today at the White House with reporters from the TV networks, Leavitt and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns discussed their plans to "flood the zone" with information to media outlets when and whether a pandemic occurred.

Leavitt and Johanns discussed how the virus was being tracked now, in bird and poultry populations in the United States and around the world. They walked through some hypothetical examples.

While preparations are being made for various potential scenarios, Leavitt said there was no way to avoid some period of time when a pandemic would not be well contained and many people could get sick and die.