New CBO score released for GOP health care bill passed by House

ABC News' Amna Nawaz and Rick Klein discuss the CBO report, which estimates that 23 million people will lose coverage over the next 10 years with the AHCA.
10:24 | 05/24/17

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Transcript for New CBO score released for GOP health care bill passed by House
Hey guys on the divides here in New York coming to you with a little bit of breaking news. You probably heard congressional number crunchers have been going through the Republican health care plan this is part of a larger mission to repeal and replace the ACA. Our obamacare will today we've just learned what they think of that plan cell what does it cost who does that affect how many people look at the fact. Anyone have the answer to these questions it's my colleague down in DC ABC's political director Rick Klein Rick how you doing today. I'm well learning a lot about soccer congressional Congressional Budget Office scoring details and re reading a lot of numbers all at once. As are we all and we should warn everyone this just came out in the last hour we're going through it and getting the details together but we how to learn a little bit about what this nonpartisan. Body. Thinks about that Republican plan that was pushed through really quickly. At the beginning of the month and Rick as we spoke back then a lot of people who voted on it in the house. Hadn't even read it so these are differences first time we're getting some more details about what's in the bill. That's right on the and and there are winners and there are losers among the winners. Healthier and wealthier people among the losers people with preexisting conditions particularly in states. That are likely to opt out some of the core requirements of obamacare a couple of big picture import items here to highlight on there was some question. As to whether this would reduce the deficit and that was important not just for rhetoric but also for process. Republicans are are pursuing a process that would allow them to do this with just the bare majority of senators. No possibility of a filibuster and in order to do that under senate rules and asked to reduce the deficit and that this bill does according to Congressional Budget Office a 119. Billion dollars. Less contribute to the deficit over the space of the decade that clears the way for this to get taken up in the senate without having to re pass in the house of the Senate's gonna make substantial changes. And then another big item is the number of uninsured. And we remember when that initial bill was proposed the Congressional Budget Office at the 24 million people. What additionally would lose their health insurance. It over a ten year period by 20/20 six according to this bill is only 23 million for a total of 51 million uninsured so that is part of the cost of doing business and in the question for congress becomes do you like that deficit savings in the potential to stabilize insurance markets in some parts of the country. At the cost of this 23 million people additionally would not have health insurance and over the next decade. Rick let's set the stage a little bit to get context here about why this analysis matters still much I want to go back to that day. That that Republicans really got their first big legislative win under president trump let's take a listen to what president trump had to say about this plan in the Rose Garden. After that win let's listen. And as far as I'm concerned your premiums are gonna start to come down we're gonna get this passed through the senate I feel so confident. Your deductibles when it comes to deductibles there was so. Ridiculous that nobody got to use their current plan. So Rick we know key to that plan and that proposal and Republicans promises along the way. They said they were gonna lower the premiums it was going to cost last for Americans to have. Their health care to they accomplished that with this to be know that from the CBO score. It depends on where you live thing in your particular situation first of all and this is important in the political hot text CBO thinks that because. Government is taking some money out of the system a lot of money into the system they'll be 20% premium increase on average that happens they hit it twenty team. That's when all these members of congress are up for reelection that is gonna provide some real sticker shock. Beyond that. The estimate from the Congressional Budget Office is that about half of people. Will live in states that out we'll make significant changes to these so called essential health benefits that's the pocket of health care benefits that have to be offered and if you make those changes. It means that you're out of pocket expenses could be Quidel quite a bit larger depending on the services the need so for instance you live in a state. The no longer covers maternity care or mental health coverage for drug abuse coverage. And you need access those services it's a lot more money in addition if you look at one of those states. That opt out of or gets a waiver from that that the regular requirement to ensure against preexisting conditions make sure that you can be covered. You could be in a place where your premiums skyrocket or even according to the CBO a place where you cannot buy health insurance that is ex again begin. Item because it's something that president trump said repeatedly as president and on the campaign trail. And that Republicans went out of their way to talk up. When they passed this bill a couple weeks ago they said don't worry about it will take care of these people. With preexisting conditions the CBO saying there's just not enough money in the system. Even the additional money that was freed up as part of that compromise to make sure the people with preexisting conditions get coverage so. It really will depend on where you live. The political inclinations of your state whether those promises will be captured. So cost is obviously one at the key numbers that we're looking at a lot of people are gonna. Read it matters to them and the number of uninsured we should point out that CBO did score previous versions. Of the bill back in March you mentioned the previous score had 24 million additional people uninsured by 20/20 six this new version. A bit of an improvement 23 million but something Republicans faced again and again every time they went after their home districts. Face people in their town hall and people were scared that they would fall into back category that they could lose their health insurance. Does this plan alleviate those concerns in anyway. Well tell you what I'm hearing from Democrats immediately a couple of email in his news statements out. In me in the immediate aftermath and they're saying Republicans celebrated in the Rose Garden the fact the 23 million fewer Americans flock health insurance over the next decade. Now they can defend that enable after the and that a lot of those people of all the bulk of those people are actually people who will choose not to get health insurance because they are younger or healthier. But remember that was kind of the point of obamacare. Spread the risk around force everyone to buy health insurance to. Allow younger and healthier people to subsidize the older or sicker people that's how the system work. That system is taken apart. I of course it didn't work perfectly and no one would defend the entire status while. But that's how that was the that was the the core promise of obamacare and that is taken out under this bill in the Congressional Budget Office only confirms that so. I think for people who work scared about their own coverage their kids' coverage their families coverage. Particularly people with preexisting conditions particularly people. Frankly in red states where the Republican leadership is more likely opt out of the national requirements there's going to be a lot of stress a lot of anxiety. Over what this bill means and influence frankly on the flip side. Not a lot of relief in terms of premiums there is a projection in this that suggests that the premium increases will go down over time but again. That's after that initial shock of a 20% increase in 2018. And is nothing in here that suggests that they're controlling the cost curve over the long term. Hell the church is still going to be expensive and get more expensive and Republicans are going to be blamed for it if if and when this past. So Rick one of the key missions alongside lowering premiums was just getting rid of the individual mandate which it obviously dying. But as he mentioned a key premise of insurance in the way that it works is if you get those younger healthier people to buy in. You've got more people paying into the system rather than pulling out of it. And sometimes that will bring premiums and costs down is there any conversation. In Republican circles about how to get younger and healthier people to opt in to buy this insurance. There's some things in the legislation including a penalty of about going out of the system for for more than a year that are written the it's designed to entice people to stay in. But the whole point of the of the Republican. Rationale on this has been it should be about individual choice that no one should be compelled. To buy into the system so that really isn't the focus in I wouldn't anticipate that the trump. HHS department trying to make this the focus of an advertising campaign trying to get people and it's telling on the did even that revised version of the bill. Was what was opposed by all of the major medical hospital association's all the meager trade groups the doctors' groups the hospital's groups. All of them AARP all came out so this is a bad deal he sees strong statements from those medical association's continuing on this. They do not feel like it's good for the health care system in this country. Did that they or their feeling is that this is more delivering on a set of political promises and doing Sony incomplete fashion frankly that's what the concern. On the floor of the house was that made passage so difficult that's part of the concern that mitnick is that such an uncertain path right now in the senate. So we've tough talk about that app for a second only talk a little bit had been batted in or convert sequences in the idea that the senate have to change a lot of this bill. Moving forward but as you mentioned because they've hit the cost savings that they needed to they can move it through with the budget reconciliation process right they only need 5051. Votes rather than sixty. Right do they have those votes and what did they change. No in the and one of the things is that they may change everything they're starting literally from scratch that's been the work there they've got into working group we heard just today from senator Mitch McConnell the senate Republican leader conceding they don't they don't have. Fifty votes right now and you only lose to Republican senators right now president 52. 48 split so that it did not a lot of wiggle room and they are starting from scratch on this. This though all allows the process to move forward that was the house strategy pass something so that you have the votes for some thing. To at least allow the senate to weigh in and and work whatever its magic may be. There's going to be a whole other process. Around consideration of this bill through the senate if it even gets that far this was an important marking point for Republicans it's a mixed bag for them. But there they are pretty much in agreement the vote those who voted for it and saying that this this bears that out broadly. That's slightly fewer people uninsured the deficit does come down for some people could portions of people premiums will come down. That he doesn't do everything that they are anticipating according to this analysis and they'll they'll nit pick around that. But at least allows the process to move forward and for them to be able to go back and tell those constituents at least we try at least we try to get something done repealing and replacing obamacare. And we're gonna follow through as they move forward on that process that's recline with us in Washington DC thanks trickle with its top thank you on a and thanks telling you for watching as well head over to abcnews.com for the latest for going to be updating our analysis and take away. Of the CBO score of the republicans' health care plan that's there now at abcnews.com. Thanks for joining us for now I'm on the Nevada not be back hears it.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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