The End of the Surge: What Next for Iraq?

And serious questions remain about whether the recent improvement in security is sustainable. Iraqi troops still rely on American support. Al Qaeda is still operating in areas like Diyala and Nineveh provinces. The Shia militia affiliated with radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called a ceasefire earlier this year but some Iraqis fear that it may simply be regrouping. And, perhaps most crucially, Iraqi politicians are yet to take advantage of the momentum created by the surge to pass key legislation on oil and provincial elections, as well as reach out to those groups who have felt left out of the political process.

Related

A Turning Point in Iraq?

Will Good News in Iraq Affect Election?

The departure of the surge troops means those left behind have a much bigger area to cover. There is no replacement for the 900 American soldiers who were responsible for Jamia and surrounding neighborhoods in western Baghdad.

"There is no longer extra U.S. force capacity to place overwhelming numbers of U.S. soldiers in lots of places simultaneously," Battjes told ABC News. "Therefore, the ability of the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi police to maintain and improve the security situation is critical."

Jamia storeowner Waleed Khalid told ABC News that he wishes Battjes and his men had not left. "For the time being they should not leave, because the Iraqi Army and police are not strong enough," he said. "They need a supporting force."

There's also uncertainty about the future of the "Sons of Iraq," which currently number around 100,000 across Iraq. In Jamia, about 100 have now quit after finding better jobs, and 180 have joined the police, leaving 240 waiting to see if they can get jobs inside the Iraqi security forces or join another work program.

Battjes warns that, "If the 'Sons of Iraq' are not transitioned in a satisfactory manner, there could be some serious security problems as a result."

As the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, said recently at a town hall meeting with his officers, "We're not at the irreversible point yet."