Watching the Arctic Melt Away

May 12, 2008— -- The Arctic is warming faster than anyone predicted, and the melting away of ice is speeding up.

Seen by many as the proverbial canary in a coal mine, the Arctic is warming more speedily than anywhere else on Earth, many scientists believe.

Temperatures are expected to rise in the region by 7.5 degrees Celsius this century. That's 12 degrees Fahrenheit.

In 2006, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted that we might see an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century.

Now it seems that the panel's prediction may come true much sooner than expected, perhaps within a decade.

Ice is more reflective than water — nine times more reflective — so as more of the ice turns to water, the ice melts even faster, because it doesn't reflect the sun's heat back into the sky but instead absorbs it, making the whole area warmer.

"The worst-case scenarios as outlined in that report are certainly coming true based on recent observations,"Russell Shearer, director, Northern Science and Contaminants Research, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, said in an interview with ABC News.

"Ice and snow have receded at an exceptionally high rate and much greater than anticipated, it accelerates at a higher rate and a higher speed as it melts, it's something called the tipping point. It reaches a tipping point where it accelerates at a very high rate and many scientists think we're at that tipping point or very close to it."

Since the joint Nobel peace prize winners (they shared the prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore) made their predictions two years ago, many of their estimates have been outstripped by reality.

Emissions from fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and gas have surpassed expectations. The growth in emissions from developing countries such as China and India outstrip almost all projections. Polar sea ice and glaciers are retreating at ever-increasing speed.

Kim Holmén, Research Director of the Norwegian Polar Institute, told ABC News that since "all of these things are happening at the same time, it clearly indicates there is a grand scale change of the system."