The North Korea Missile Standoff: Direct Negotiations Remain the Only Path

— -- Beck is the North East Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, an independent, nonprofit organization working to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. He is based in Seoul, South Korea.

Now that the North has fired a series of missiles and could launch more in the coming days, we are faced with difficult choices.

It is already clear that China and Russia will not support U.N. sanctions on North Korea for testing its missiles.

South Korea is also not keen to squeeze Kim Jong Il's regime too hard lest it have to pick up the pieces if the country collapses, or worse, lashes out.

No one outside of North Korea can be happy about the North's provocative act, but the missile firings have not been in breach of any international law, and they have not changed the security situation enough for these nations to take the tough action being urged by the Bush administration.

Washington could salvage the current situation and get five of those involved in the six-party talks on the same side if it gave up its insistence on only talking to North Korea within that framework.

The administration must recognize two key points: Only direct talks with Pyongyang at a high level will work and the top priority must be ending North Korea's nuclear program.

Other issues -- missiles, human rights, chemical and biological weapons, troop reductions, and crime -- should all be tackled when the nuclear risk is gone.

The reluctance of three critical members of the talks bares the flaw of U.S. policy in North East Asia over the last six years.

Washington has tried to harness the region into a united front against Kim but only Japan has signed up with any enthusiasm.

The policy has tied U.S. hands, handed over key security decisions to the Chinese, and allowed North Korea to provoke splits among a group that has increasingly different views on how much risk the North presents.

China, Russia and South Korea all see the disintegration of North Korea as more dangerous than the current standoff -- and they have good reason.

If the government in Pyongyang collapses, nobody knows how the vast army will behave or how many people will flee the country.

It could mean civil war among forces with nuclear, biological and chemical weapons to use or sell. South Korea would face a huge financial shock bailing out its bankrupt neighbor.