North Korea Likely to Test Nukes by Year's End

WASHINGTON, Oct. 4, 2006 — -- U.S. officials do not believe that North Korea is bluffing with its latest threat to conduct a nuclear test. Several senior officials told ABC News they fear it is likely North Korea will test a nuclear bomb before the end of the year.

"Nobody should assume this is just bluster," a U.S. intelligence official told ABC News. "Not at all."

North Korea is believed to have enough nuclear material to make at least eight nuclear bombs, but it has never tested one. A nuclear test would erase any doubt that North Korea is a nuclear power and, therefore, a much more dangerous adversary.

Tuesday North Korea announced it is "compelled to conduct a nuclear test," but even before the announcement, U.S. spy satellites had observed suspicious activity and a possible test site that analysts believe to be preparations for a nuclear test.

The activity, which was first observed in August, included suspicious vehicle movement and the unloading of large spools of cable. Such cables, analysts believe, can be used to connect an underground nuclear bomb with above-ground observation equipment.

The activity was spotted at a suspected test site near Pongyi-yok, a remote section of north-central North Korea. But officials cautioned they do not know for sure where North Korea would conduct a test. An underground test can be virtually impossible to detect before it happens.

"They could test at any time with little or no warning," a senior official told ABC News.

The United States has not been the only one warning North Korea not to conduct a test. The United Nations, China, Japan and South Korea have all urged North Korea against it. Most recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a statement that a North Korean nuclear test would be "unacceptable."

In its Tuesday statement, North Korea used apocalyptic terms to explain its intention to test a nuclear bomb. Citing an "extreme threat of nuclear war and sanctions" from the United States, the statement said "the North Korean nations stand at the crossroads of life and death."

The statement, which was read on North Korean state-controlled television, said safety for the test would be "firmly guaranteed."