2004 Poll: Shiite-Sunni Differences

Mar.17, 2004 -- To see the anger and humiliation in Iraq, look to its political losers, the Sunni Arabs. And to see the country's future, look again. There are some broad political gaps between this group and other Iraqis — differences that may need bridging for the country to heal.

An ABCNEWS poll of Iraqis, the first media-sponsored national public opinion poll in the country, sheds light on some of the complicated strands of religious and ethnic views there. Most striking are comparisons of Sunni and Shiite Arabs, the two main Islamic doctrines, and of ethnic Kurds in the country's north.

Iraq's Sunni Arabs, the favored group under the 24-year reign of Saddam Hussein, are far more hostile than other Iraqis to the U.S.-led coalition. Sixty-three percent of Sunni Arabs say it was wrong for the United States to invade, and 66 percent say the invasion humiliated Iraq more than liberated it. Fewer than four in 10 Shiite Arabs say the same (as do a mere one in 10 of the broadly pro-coalition Kurds.)

Similarly, 72 percent of Sunni Arabs oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq today, compared to 54 percent of Shiite Arabs (and just 12 percent of Kurds). And most threateningly, 36 percent of Sunni Arabs say attacks against coalition forces are "acceptable" — triple the level among Shiite Arabs. Also, 29 percent of Sunni Arabs say coalition forces should leave now, compared with 12 percent of Shiite Arabs.

These and other results make clear the need for distinctions when talking about Sunnis in Iraq. There are two very different groups within the Sunni population: on one hand, Sunni Arabs; on the other, members of the Kurdish minority, most of whom also are Sunnis, but who hold dramatically different attitudes. Looking at Sunnis makes far more sense when Kurds are separated out.

This is the second of two analyses of data from the ABCNEWS poll in Iraq, which was co-sponsored by the German network ARD, the BBC and NHK in Japan, with sampling and field work by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England. For the first ABCNEWS analysis, see our Poll Vault.