Some Worry Slump Foretells Movie Biz Changes

LOS ANGELES, July 31, 2005 — -- Despite such summer box office smashes as George Lucas' "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith" and Steven Spielberg's "War of the Worlds," moviemakers are concerned: Box office receipts have lagged behind last year's totals for most weekends this year.

"I don't remember more anxiety, a bigger sense of uncertainty in this business in the 25 years that I've been doing it," said Walter F. Parkes. He and his wife and producing partner Laurie MacDonald have produced such hits as "The Ring" and "Men in Black." Their latest movie, "The Island," directed by Michael Bay, opened last weekend.

"There's been so much talk about the slump," Parkes added. "I think the question that is in everybody's mind is, 'Is this a temporary state of affairs that came about as the result of a number of pictures that didn't work, or are we looking at some kind of fundamental shift in the viewing patterns of the audience?' "

It's talk of that shift that has Hollywood feeling fretful. For while a few summer films have struggled -- like the crusading epic "Kingdom of Heaven" and the well-regarded "Cinderella Man" -- some are more worried that the availability of recent movies on DVD is keeping people away from the multiplex.

"There's a great deal of concern in the industry about the so-called window between the time that a movie is released and the time the DVD comes out," said Peter Bart of Variety. "That window has been six months. Then it went to four months. And now, it's roughly at three months."

The window shortened because of piracy concerns -- with new movies turning up on bootleg DVDs around the world -- and because of the desire to avoid funding two separate marketing campaigns for the same project.

But for a summer movie business that's based, in part, on repeat viewing of big-budget pictures, a short window can spell long-term trouble.

"Blockbusters depend on repeat business," said Laurie MacDonald, Parkes' wife and co-producer. "But I think that because you know that you can quickly see it on DVD, or because of pirated DVDs, that yeah, the interest in going again and experiencing it at the theater, given the cost, is less. And that's certainly affecting summer movies."

It also may be getting more comfortable to watch at home. There's been an uptick in sales of home theater systems, and some complaints that theaters are playing too many ads before showing the movie. A recent AOL/Associated Press survey claimed 73 percent of people prefer seeing films at home.

"Long run, sure, fewer people are going to go to see movies at theaters," Bart said. "More people are going to have home theaters and are gonna buy DVDs, long run. But I think what's happening is everyone is jumping on this long-term trend and trying to prove it's happened already."