Poll: Candidates Neck and Neck

Bush makes up for his shortfall among independents by again poaching more Democrats (15 percent) than Kerry wins Republicans (7 percent); Kerry had battled him to parity on this last week, but the disparity in Bush's favor has emerged again. Democrats account for 36 percent of likely voters in this poll, Republicans for 34 percent.

Among other groups, older voters -- hotly contested because of their high turnout -- divide absolutely evenly, 47 percent-47 percent. Young voters, under 30, a subject of great speculation as to turnout, divide fairly similarly (given sampling tolerances), 50 percent-46 percent, Kerry-Bush.

Bush leads by 11 points among men (the same as his margin four years ago); Kerry by five points among women (Al Gore won them by 11 points in 2000). There is a very sharp division between married women (+8 points for Bush, 53 percent-45 percent) and single women; a core Democratic group, they favor Kerry by 60 percent-36 percent.

Methodology

This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 14-17 among a random national sample of 2,402 adults, including 2,130 registered voters and 1,544 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

See previous analyses in our Poll Vault.

See previous analyses in our Poll Vault.

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