Poll: Advantage Kerry in Ohio Race

 

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But Bush and Kerry run about evenly, 44 percent to 42 percent, on honesty and trustworthiness, perhaps the most fundamental candidate quality; that compares to a nine-point Bush lead on honesty nationally. Ohioans are similarly evenly split on which candidate has the more appealing personality (45 percent to 44 percent); and it's dead even on who shares voters' values -- 47 percent pick Bush, 47 percent Kerry.

Kerry leads Bush on one attribute of the eight tested: When it comes to who "understands the problems of people like you," Ohio likely voters pick Kerry by 48 percent to 40 percent.

Candidate Attributes
	Bush	Kerry
Strong Religious Faith	57%	24
Strong Leader	54	39
Clear Stand on Issues	52	38
Country Safer/More Secure	52	41
Honest/Trustworthy	44	42
Appealing Personality	45	44
Understands Your Problems	40	48

On overall popularity, Ohioans divide on both men. Bush has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 50 percent to 45 percent; Kerry, 47 percent to 45 percent. Both are similar to their ratings nationally.

Same-Sex Marriage

Ohio's "Issue 1" would amend the state constitution to define marriage as only being between a man and a woman, and would prohibit legally recognized civil unions for gay and lesbian couples. As noted, likely voters are about evenly divided; 48 percent say they'd vote for it; 45 percent against.

The amendment is the main draw for few voters -- but in a close presidential race, a few can make the difference. Overall 4 percent of likely voters call the amendment the most important contest on the ballot -- much too small a group to reliably analyze their presidential preference. Among one of the target voter groups for this amendment -- white evangelical Protestants -- 7 percent say it's the main draw.

The amendment incites strong opinions on both sides, but slightly stronger on the support side. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters strongly support the amendment, while 32 percent strongly oppose it. Two-thirds of opponents of the amendment favor Kerry for president; about the same number of amendment supporters favor Bush.

Views on the amendment draw sharp lines across the electorate. Republicans, conservatives and evangelical white Protestants support it by about 40-point margins. White Catholics, key swing voters who supported Bush over Gore by seven points in Ohio in 2000, favor the amendment by a closer 51 percent to 41 percent.

Democrats are not as lopsided in their view; 54 percent of Democrats oppose the amendment, but 37 percent of Democrats support it. Independents oppose it by a very similar margin as Democrats, 54 percent to 41 percent.

Women and men divide about evenly on the proposal, with marital status a key factor. Married men and women alike support the amendment; unmarried men and women oppose it.

Same-Sex Marriage Amendment
	Favor	Oppose
Likely Voters	48%	45
Democrat	37	54
Republican	66	28
Independent	41	54
Liberal	30	65
Moderate	41	50
Conservative	69	26
White Evangelical Protestants	68	28
White Non-Evangelical Protestants	42	51
White Catholics	51	41
Married Women	54	37
Married Men	42	51
Unmarried Women	37	54
Unmarried Men	44	54