Poll: Bush Popularity Narrowly Based

Jan. 19, 2004 -- George W. Bush starts his fourth year in office with an intricate riddle unsolved: How to translate his broad popularity in one critical area -- fighting terrorism -- into strength in others where he's substantially weaker, from the economy to a range of domestic issues.

Despite his strengths, the task is a pressing one: On the eve of his third State of the Union address and at the start of an election year, the Democrats in Congress now match Bush in public trust to handle the nation's main problems, 44 percent to 45 percent.

That's Bush's weakest result on this question in the last two years, and it underscores his conundrum: His overall job approval rating -- 58 percent, fueled by 66 percent approval for handling terrorism -- is much better than his ratings on a variety of individual issues would imply. The president's strength is significant but narrowly based, and that makes it potentially vulnerable.

Indeed, out of 10 issues tested in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, the Democrats lead Bush in trust to handle six (three of which -- health insurance, prescription drugs and Medicare -- are related.) They're tied in two -- taxes and education. And Bush leads by wide margins in two others -- terrorism and the situation in Iraq. The Democrats lead, albeit by smaller margins, in trust to handle the economy, the budget deficit, health insurance, Medicare, prescription drug benefits and immigration issues.

On these and other issues, recent efforts by Bush to seize the initiative have fallen short. Polls last week found majority opposition to his temporary amnesty plan for illegal immigrants. In this survey, 62 percent oppose the manned space program he's proposed, and 56 percent oppose a government role in promoting traditional marriage, said to be one theme of his address Tuesday night.

At the same time, on balance, Bush's overall grades are more positive than negative. Beyond his overall job approval rating are Americans' personal reactions to his administration's policies -- 54 percent positive (either enthusiastic or satisfied), compared with 45 percent negative (dissatisfied or angry).

The public's attention, however, may be turning toward some of Bush's weaker suits. The number of Americans who want him to devote most of his State of the Union speech to domestic issues (as opposed to the economy or terrorism) has risen from 31 percent just before the 2002 address to 40 percent today.

Approvals

Bush's approval ratings on specific issues tell a similar story to his standing versus the Democrats. His strongest rating is for handling the war on terrorism; as noted, 66 percent approve. Fifty-five percent approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq (it was 60 percent just after the capture of Saddam Hussein), and 55 percent approve of his work on education, a key domestic issue on which he's maintained a good score.

But on handling the economy, Bush gets a closer 51-47 percent split in approval; it's a 45-51 percent split on taxes; and more disapprove than approve of his work on Medicare, drug benefits and especially health insurance (55 percent disapprove), immigration issues (56 percent disapprove) and the deficit (58 percent disapprove).

Approval on terrorism, Iraq and the economy are more highly correlated with Bush's overall approval rating than are his ratings on any other individual issues.

Comparisons

Even if Bush's overall approval rating is narrowly based, and thus potentially vulnerable, it's still darn good. Looking back nearly a half century, only one previous president has had a higher approval rating in January of a re-election year --