The biggest single predictor of how a House member voted: How tight his or her reelection race is. "Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as 'toss-up' or 'lean' by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211," Nate Silver blogs at FiveThirtyEight.com.
Per ABC's Karen Travers, of the 31 current House Members on ABC's list of competitive races, 24 voted against the bill -- including 11 of the 15 Democrats, and 13 of the 16 Republicans.
We hope Gov. Sarah Palin wasn't hoping for debate prep to be quiet.
The New York Times' Adam Nagourney crystallizes the challenges in her big week: "she heads into a critical debate facing challenges from conservatives about her credentials, signs that her popularity is slipping and evidence that Republicans are worried about how much help she will be for Mr. McCain in November."
Said former Bush speechwriter David Frum: "I think she has pretty thoroughly -- and probably irretrievably -- proven that she is not up to the job of being president of the United States."
Added Jim Greer, the GOP chairman in Florida: "I think the Katie Couric interview shows that she needs to be briefed more on certain aspects."
Who's the drag now? "Since joining his ticket, the overnight political celebrity has seen the shine come off her poll standings and doubts surface among some conservatives once excited about her candidacy," the AP's Alan Fram writes. "The Alaska governor still draws huge crowds and energizes McCain's drive for the White House. Yet a whirlwind month after he made her his running mate, Palin is starting to seem very, very vulnerable."
The latest prescription -- if you ask Bill Kristol or Mitt Romney or Rick Wilson or Frank Gaffney: Let Palin be Palin.
Point taken: "Sarah Palin will take a more forward-leaning approach and do additional interviews in the weeks ahead, a top aide said today," per Politico's Jonathan Martin.
And yet -- get the siren ready for this one: "Of concern to McCain's campaign, however, is a remaining and still-undisclosed clip from Palin's interview with Couric last week that has the political world buzzing," Martin reports.
"The Palin aide, after first noting how 'infuriating' it was for CBS to purportedly leak word about the gaffe, revealed that it came in response to a question about Supreme Court decisions," he writes. "After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases."
Where does this fall on the spin scale? "The fact is that she has done incredible job. And I'm so proud of the work that she's doing," he said of his running mate, in the joint Katie Couric interview.
She does seem eager for the debate against Sen. Joe Biden: "After a week that provided plenty of fodder for Saturday Night Live material, the Republican nominee for vice president was a crowd pleaser today and seemed eager to talk about the upcoming debate," Jimmy Orr writes in the Christian Science Monitor.
Could Tina Fey be helping? "Does the impression hurt Real Palin, by cementing the idea that she's unprepared for the job? Or does it help her, by helping to set expectations for the debate so low she can hardly help but clear them?" Time's James Poniewozik writes.
Ready to rumble: "I've been hearing about his speeches since I was in the second grade," Palin said of her rival. (For the record, she was busy winning beauty contests when McCain was a freshman congressman.)
Nothing like expectations: "He's going in there to debate a leviathan of forensics, who has debated five times and she's undefeated in debates," Biden spokesman David Wade says of Biden's chances against Palin, per ABC's Matt Jaffe, Imtiyaz Delawala, and Nitya Venkataraman.
On Biden's strategy: "If she makes a gaffe, he underplays it," one of the people prepping Biden for his vice presidential debate tells Politico's Roger Simon.
Can Palin still be Palin? "Off script, though, Palin has become increasingly tentative. Last week, when a member of the press pool asked Palin a question at the outset of a meeting she and McCain were holding with the presidents of Georgia and Ukraine, she looked to McCain, who shook his head, and she stayed silent," The Washington Post's Juliet Eilperin writes.
Which is more dangerous? Palin being Palin, or Biden being Biden?
"Unlike his Republican counterpart, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Biden has not been shy about talking to reporters, but comments he has made since Obama chose him last month have presented Democrats with their own problems and revived the longtime senator's reputation for gaffes," Perry Bacon Jr. writes in The Washington Post.
The Sked:
Barack Obama holds an 11 am ET rally in Reno, Nev.
John McCain holds a roundtable discussion in Des Moines at 11 am ET (and isn't coming back to Washington this time -- not yet, anyway).
Sarah Palin is down in Sedona, Ariz. at the McCain ranch, preparing for the Thursday veep's debate.
Joe Biden continues his debate prep in Wilmington, Del. with no public events scheduled.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., outlines his plan for the economic mess at a 10 am ET speech at the National Press Club in Washington.
Also in the news:
The woman behind those e-mail forwards out of Wasilla: "[Anne] Kilkenny, 57, lives with her husband and son in a one-level home surrounded by raspberry bushes, crab apple trees, birch and fireweed," Erika Hayasaki writes for the Los Angeles Times. "She speaks in a high-pitched voice, cheerful as a grade school teacher, pausing for deep breaths between thoughts. She parts her steel gray hair down the middle, wears ankle-length skirts, irons meticulously and grows potatoes and asparagus in her backyard."
Can we settle it over the poker table? "John McCain bet with $100 chips. Barack Obama threw nickels around like they were manhole covers," Christi Parsons and Ray Long write in the Chicago Tribune. "Maybe that's why Obama thinks it's a subject worth harping on -- even though both men played in the company of lobbyists."
Troopergate update: "A lawsuit aimed at freezing the Legislature's abuse-of-power investigation of Gov. Sarah Palin hits the courtroom this week," per the Anchorage Daily News' Kyle Hopkins. "The lawyer representing five Republican lawmakers who filed the case says he may try to put the state-hired investigator -- or Anchorage Democratic Sen. Hollis French, who is overseeing the investigation -- on the witness stand. A Superior Court judge on Monday combined the case with a similar lawsuit filed by the attorney general. Both suits argue the legislature doesn't have the authority to investigate Palin."
