The Note: Not Lowest and Least

— -- WASHINGTON, Sep. 15

NEWS SUMMARY
As Howard Fineman, Adam Nagourney, Rick Berke, Jeff Greenfield, Elizabeth Wilner, Ron Brownstein, Matt Cooper, Mike Abramowitz, and Ken Mehlman would say, "How is the situation President Bush faces tonight different than on all other nights since 9/11?":

He has never seen his poll numbers take this kind of hit among Republicans before.

He has never seen his poll numbers on "strong leader" and "can handle a crisis" take such a hit before.

He has never seen his efforts to build the Republican Party among African-Americans be so thoroughly undermined before.

He has never been rolled by Nancy Pelosi before.

He has never been without Dr. Rice or Ambassador Hughes down the hall during a crisis before.

He has never had two open-ended spending commitments of tens of billions of dollars before.

He has never had to take "responsibility" for such death-infused tragedy before.

He has never had to rethink whether he has put fully qualified people in critical jobs before.

He has never had so many well-meaning Republican strategists and Administration aides whole-heartedly agreeing that the White House was too slow off the mark in dealing with a crisis before.

He has never had to dial back on his view that "it's also important for me to go on with my life, to keep a balanced life" -- at least in public -- before.

He has never had to be dependent on an inexperienced Democratic governor of a poor state for his own political health before.

He has never faced the possibility of long-term blame for something (the rebuilding of New Orleans and other devastated areas) that is to a large extent beyond his control -- and which he will say tonight should be left largely to the choices of local people -- before.

He has never had to be so deeply self-conscious about tossing off sarcastic remarks, half-baked cracks, and casual comments before.

He has never been so denied the cushion of his nonchalant confidence and relaxed superiority before.

He has never been perceived as such a potential liability by others in his party looking to hold their seats before.

He has never lacked The Other -- an enemy to demonize and to contrast with himself and his policies in the eyes of the media and the public before.

(Note to Rush Limbaugh: out of professional courtesy, before you attack us (wrongly) for being liberally biased or anti-Bush, we would ask you to do three things: [1] consider each item one-by-one and ask yourself if you really think what we wrote is wrong; [2] ask the White House if they disagree with any of this -- except that Pelosi item; [3] call us to discuss it. Then: trash us.)

President Bush is scheduled to depart the White House at 1:45 pm ET to head to the Gulf Coast region for his fourth trip since Hurricane Katrina came ashore. He will make a stop in Mississippi before heading on to New Orleans where he will give his address the nation this evening.

The speech will begin at 9:02 pm ET. ABC's entire prime-time lineup in the Eastern and Central time zones will be about the hurricane, starting with a Katrina "tick-tock" presented by ABC's Ted Koppel at 8:00 pm ET, the President's address anchored by Koppel at 9:00 pm ET, and a "Primetime Live" about the state of disaster preparedness in other cities following the President's speech.

The Roberts hearings in the Senate Judiciary Committee continue -- and possibly conclude -- today. Starting at 9:00 am ET, President Bush's Supreme Court nominee will face questions from Democratic Sens. Leahy, Kennedy, Feinstein, Feingold, Schumer, and Durbin. Roberts will be excused at 11:00 am ET, at which point the committee will go into closed session before reconvening at 12:00 pm ET in Hart 216 where they will hear from six different panels. See below for the full details.

The Clinton Global Initiative convenes in New York City.

The House meets at 10:00 am ET to consider the Katrina Emergency Tax Relief Act of 2005 and the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2005.

Sens. Landrieu (D-LA) and Vitter (R-LA) and the Louisiana House delegation hold a Capitol Hill press conference on Hurricane Katrina relief at 10:30 am ET.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) delivers a speech about the renewed importance of energy independence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina at "Resources for the Future," located at 1616 P Street, NW, at 10:30 am ET.

At 10:00 am ET, the Center for American Progress holds a discussion, "New Hope for New Orleans: Progressive Visions for Renewing the Gulf."

The Government Reform Committee holds a hearing, "Back to the Drawing Board: A First Look at Lessons Learned from Katrina," at 10:00 am ET.

Beginning at 9:30 am ET, Senate Democrats -- including Sen. Hillary Clinton -- play host to the sixth annual Hispanic Leadership Summit.

Must-reads:
Peggy Noonan's lovely, strong, clear-headed Dow Jones essay magically takes on and agrees with our summary list simultaneously. A must-read for one and all, but especially for her buddies in the White House and the President of the United States. LINK

A front-page Wall Street Journal opus by J. Calmes/A. Carrns/J. Opdyke on the politics of rebuilding has it all, on race and class and:

On czar: "In Washington, officials from both parties are concluding the reconstruction job is so immense that it demands an entirely new government entity, perhaps similar to the Depression-era Tennessee Valley Authority. Top presidential adviser Karl Rove and other administration officials have begun soliciting names for the new organization's czar. Former General Electric Co. chief Jack Welch has been mentioned as a possible candidate, as have former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, though those two have detractors within the White House."

On rebuilding structure: "In Washington, Congress is moving ahead on plans to set up a large new federal reconstruction authority. As models, lawmakers point to the TVA, created in 1933 to develop a woefully backward area of exhausted farmland and timberland, and the Appalachian Regional Commission, created during Lyndon Johnson's administration at the behest of governors of the impoverished region. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, proposed a powerful new government body, based within the White House but with its headquarters on the Gulf Coast, that would be led by an "individual with strong leadership skills" for three years."

On Mississippi versus Louisiana tension: "One source of tension: President Bush's closest ally in the region is Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, the former head of the national Republican Party. Gov. Barbour 'is going to have a big say in this,' an administration official says. Neither he nor Sen. Cochran is likely to allow Mississippi to be shortchanged while New Orleans, a city where Democrats dominate, receives much of the federal largesse."

Former FEMA Director Mike Brown does his first reputation-saving attempt of an interview with the New York Times in which he includes an odd anecdote about a phone conversation with the President asking him to call Mayor Nagin. The mere fact that "Brownie" would chat up the New York Times in this post-mortem style shows that he didn't fit the Allbaugh model in all sorts of ways. LINK

"'Would you please call the mayor and tell him to ask people to evacuate?' Mr. Brown said he asked Mr. Bush in a phone call."

"'Mike, you want me to call the mayor?' the president responded in surprise, Mr. Brown said. Moments later, apparently on his own, the mayor, C. Ray Nagin, held a news conference to announce a mandatory evacuation, but it was too late, Mr. Brown said. Plans said it would take at least 72 hours to get everyone out."

Brown also plays the blame game with Governor Blanco.

It wouldn't surprise Sen. Grassley (R-IA) if the debate over the estate tax repeal did not occur in 2005, reports the Des Moines Register's Jane Norman. LINK

"It would appear 'unseemly' for Congress to push through a repeal of the estate tax while also coping with the hurricane disaster in the Gulf, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley of Iowa said Wednesday."

Katrina: the Bush speech:
Bookers of the world, disunite, and begin to ask now: Who will the Lenny Skutnicks of tonight's speech be? LINK

Per the Washington Post's Weisman and VandeHei, President Bush will call tonight for "an unprecedented federal commitment to rebuild New Orleans," putting the United States on pace to spend more in the next year on the storm's aftermath than it has over three years on the Iraq war, according to White House and congressional officials." LINK

Plugged-in Judy Keen ledes USA Today with a speech curtain-raiser, and defies Scott McClellan with this: "Two Bush advisers with direct knowledge of the speech said the president is considering the appointment of a high-profile 'czar' to oversee recovery efforts. But one said the White House is checking whether that would be allowed under federal law." LINK

A pinstriped Dan Bartlett made the morning show rounds today, appearing on ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN, and MSNBC, to preview the President's prime time speech.

On GMA, Bartlett responded in the negative to Charlie Gibson's suggestion that the "astronomical" cost of Katrina plus Iraq plus health care might require the nation to raise taxes. "It unfortunately requires us to deficit spend," Bartlett said. "The worst thing that we could do is raise taxes. It would only hurt the economy."

On CNN's "American Morning," Bartlett talked of how the President's speech will be focused on how the federal government will help lift up those affected in the region by making sure they have "health care, education, and housing."

The Wall Street Journal ed board hates the fact that Katrina has caused some (Republican) politicians to reach for big government solutions and urges a President who has kept "too quiet for too long" to tonight go on the "political and intellectual offensive" with a bully-pulpit rally for a range of Heritage-style policy initiatives that Americans are sure to "understand and follow" along with.

The New York Post's Orin sets the stakes for tonight's speech. LINK

Katrina: Bush poll numbers:
John Harwood writes up the latest WJS/NBC numbers, with gloom all around for the President, from the lead ("Hurricane Katrina has accelerated the erosion in public support for the Iraq war as President Bush's core of supporters dwindles and economic pessimism turns Americans' attention inward."), to the kicker ("The net effect may be increased pressure on members of the Republican majority to strike an independent course on a range of issues, resisting appeals for party discipline that have been effective for most of Mr. Bush's presidency. Those pressures will be greatest in the Northeast and Midwest, where Mr. Bush's approval rating stands at 32% and 36%, respectively. . .'All these [results] suggest unstable days ahead in the Republican caucus,' says. . .[fabled Republican pollster Bill] McInturff, whose firm advises many Republican lawmakers.")

Two key graphs from the New York Times write up of its poll with CBS: LINK

"The hurricane, alone, does not appear to have taken any significant toll on Mr. Bush's overall job approval rating, which remains stuck virtually where it has been since early summer. But the findings do suggest that the slow federal response to the hurricane has increased public doubts about the Bush administration's effectiveness. Fifty-six percent of Americans said they were now less confident about the government's ability to respond to a terrorist attack or natural disaster."

"Taken together, the numbers suggest that a public that has long seen Mr. Bush as a determined leader, whether it agreed with him or not, has growing doubts about his capacity to deal with pressing problems. More than 6 in 10 said they were uneasy about his ability to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq, and half expressed similar unease about his ability to deal with the problems of the storm's victims."

Katrina: Congress reacts:
The Washington Post's Hsu and White have Sen. Clinton's call for an independent Katrina inquiry going down along party lines yesterday as well as Senate Armed Services Chairman John Warner (R-VA) urging Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to initiate a "legal review of the use of active-duty troops in domestic emergencies" while announcing his intent to rename the Insurrection Act. LINK

The New York Daily News has more. LINK

Following up on the inimitable Jake Tapper's reporting LINK:

"Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA), under investigation by the FBI, went on the defensive Wednesday in the wake of a damaging ABC News report that the Congressman allegedly used National Guard resources to gather personal belongings from his New Orleans home amid the Hurricane Katrina rescue operation," Roll Call's Whittington and Billings report.

Republicans and Democrats continue to clash over how to investigate Katrina as GOP House leaders prepare to pass their method on a largely party-line vote today, The Hill's Hearn and O'Connor report. LINK

Katrina: Big Casino budget politics:
Bob Novak casts Sen. Coburn as a one-person crusader in the Senate against the absence of off-sets for Katrina spending. LINK

Bloomberg has Rep. Jeff Flake, who is one of 11 House Republicans to vote Sept. 8 against the $51.8 billion Katrina relief package, saying, "We've become the you-can-have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too Congress." LINK

Katrina: the blame game:
The Wall Street Journal's Robert Block has Sen. Susan Collins pushing back on taking FEMA out of the Department of Homeland Security.

The New York Daily News reports exclusively on more FEMA departures. LINK

Katrina: policy and politics:
The New York Times' crack reporting duo of Bumiller and Stevenson have this: "Republicans said Karl Rove, the White House deputy chief of staff and Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, was in charge of the reconstruction effort, which reaches across many agencies of government and includes the direct involvement of Alphonso R. Jackson, secretary of housing and urban development." LINK

On B1, the Journal's Wilke and Mullins take an excellent look at the conservative ideas that are being advanced by some members of Congress and think tanks to deal with the crisis.

John Roberts for Chief Justice:
The Wall Street Journal's Cummings and Bravin see the chances for significant Democratic Senate support for Roberts dwindling, and/but the judge more open to affirmative action than some might have thought (although we aren't sure they are reading that right).

We put the over/under at a total of 68 floor votes now -- place your bets.

David Savage of the Los Angeles Times says that Roberts is no Scalia or Thomas regarding his view of the "livingness" of the Constitution. LINK

"A conservative, yes, but not a Scalia," writes the Washington Post's Charles Lane, pointing to differences between the two men with regards to the right to privacy and the usefulness of legislative history. LINK

USA Today's Biskupic and Kiely also take the affirmative action and "not Thomas or Scalia" lines. LINK

And Steve Schmidt's Buddha smile will light up at the header over another Los Angeles Times Roberts story: "Looking More Moderate Than His Early Writings." LINK

Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah tells the Washington Post's Babington and Becker that Democrats who oppose Roberts are "playing partisan politics and they'll look like hell." LINK

The O'Connor seat:
Roll Call's Paul Kane reports that Sen. Sam Brownback warned Wednesday that he and many in the conservative movement would like the nominee to replace retiring Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor to have a clearer record of opposing abortion rights than Roberts.

Social Security:
Prospects that Congress will pass an overhaul of Social Security this year "have vanished," leaving GOPers to debate "how best to walk away," Bloomberg's Bliss and Litvan report. LINK

2005:
Read both Pat Healy stories in the New York Times for all the details on Anthony Weiner's decision making and the political ramifications of his withdrawal from the mayor's race. LINK and LINK

The New York Post has some reporting at odds with Congressman Weiner's description that nobody asked him to withdraw from the race. LINK

"The Post has learned that Ferrer personally called Weiner on Tuesday night and appealed to him to withdraw for the sake of party unity."

"The phone call from Ferrer was made at the behest of one his top Democratic supporters, state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who was with Ferrer at his campaign party at the Puck Building in lower Manhattan. A source close to the attorney general said Spitzer suggested that Ferrer appeal to Weiner to get out."

Ferrer spokeswoman Jen Bluestein disputes this and tells The Note that Ferrer did not personally call Weiner on Tuesday night.

The New York Post editorial board lambastes Weiner's decision. LINK

2006:
Former Bay State Governor Bill Weld, who is eyeing the New York gubernatorial race, has hired his former trusted advisers at Gray Media to develop help develop his campaign for 2006. LINK

2008: Republicans:
Yepsen's headline: "Pataki visit to Iowa bodes well for his future:" LINK

The dean of the Hawkeye State political press corps offers up a glowing column including the Mayor of Cedar Rapids meta-placing Pataki in the top three finishers come caucus time.

The Boston Globe reports that Gov. Romney has brand new office space on the 59th floor of the John Hancock Tower. Romney's spokesperson says,"the governor has rented office space in the Hancock Tower for personal and family use, and from this office he manages family financial affairs and the activities of his charitable foundation," but aides have said Romney will use this space to raise presidential funds and court supporters. LINK

Gov. Romney (R-MA), speaking about homeland security at the Heritage Foundation yesterday, says he believes the federal government should allocate funds for more background intelligence and focus on prevention, reports the Boston Globe's Helman. LINK

2008: Democrats:
Nina Easton of the Boston Globe Notes that Sen. Biden shines as an "animated inquisitor" at the Roberts hearings, and waxes about the '88 days. LINK

Newsweek's Howard Fineman Notes that Sen. Hillary Clinton's aides have reached out to key bloggers who represent an emerging power center in the Democratic Party. LINK

The Schwarzenegger Era:
The Los Angeles Times' Salladay, with his kitsch "Clovis" dateline, says the Governor of California practically declared his intention to run again in response to a question at a "carefully planned 'town hall. . .'" LINK

Mark Z. Barabak in the same paper has a group of Hispanic Republicans writing the Governor a letter complaining about his lack of emphasis on Hispanic empowerment and visibility, pegged to the state party convention. LINK

And George Skelton reflects and creates the convention wisdom in one column: Mr. Schwarzenegger looks weak now, but he can still win. LINK

Per the San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci: "High-tech leaders who may accompany Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on a November visit to China are being encouraged to avoid paying directly for the trip and instead make hefty donations to a nonprofit committee supporting the governor because the 'contributions are not required to be reported,' according to an e-mail obtained by The Chronicle." LINK

New Hampshire:
New Hampshire's four-member state congressional delegation is now "unanimous" in "declining to call for the resignation" of Executive Councilor Raymond Burton "despite his admission of knowingly employing a convicted child sex offender," the Union Leader's John DiStaso reports. LINK

House of Labor:
"Unite Here, the 440,000-member union of hotel, restaurant and garment workers, announced its withdrawal yesterday from the AFL-CIO, joining three other major unions that have defected from the federation to form the Change to Win Coalition," the Washington Post's Tom Edsall reports. LINK

The Hill has Grover Norquist mocking labor's muscle and saying that the temporary Davis-Bacon suspension "certainly strengthens the case" for an eventual full repeal. "It will make it obvious to people what the dead-weight costs of Davis-Bacon will be." LINK

Politics:
Per The Hill's Patrick O'Connor: Two House Republicans from Arizona--Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe-- met with Karl Rove yesterday to discuss immigration reform one week after the House chairman with jurisdiction over that issue predicted that Hurricane Katrina could delay it until next year. LINK

Per the Washington Times' Jerry Seper: Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff took a step towards reducing illegal immigration yesterday, removing regulatory obstacles that had "long delayed" completion of a 14-mile border "enforcement zone" near San Diego. LINK

That's Chairman Pedro, to you. LINK

The Massachusetts legislature has defeated a proposed state amendment to ban same-sex marriage and allow civil unions. The decision comes after many legislators changed their votes from last years, reports the Boston Globe. LINK

David Broder pays homage to the Weekly Standard. LINK

The Hill's Jeff Dufour looks at the media's swoon over Kevin Madden's press-friendly ways; The Note only pines to be mentioned in one of his mass e-mails. LINK

John Roberts for Chief Justice: the witness list:
From 11:30 am until 12 pm, the Senate Judiciary Committee will hear from Panel 1 which includes Steve Tober, Tom Hayward and Pamela Bresnahan of the ABA.

At 12:00 pm ET, the committee will hear from Panel 2 which includes former Attorney General Dick Thornburgh; Rep. John Lewis (D-GA); Jennifer Braceras of the US Commission on Civil Rights; former EPA Director Carol Browner; Juneau Mayor Bruce Botelho; and retired appellate Judge Nathaniel Jones of the 6th Circuit.

At 2:00 pm ET, the committee will hear from Panel 3 which includes Catherine Stetson, a partner at Hogan & Hartson; Coach Roderick Jackson; the NCAA's Elsa Cole; Beverly Jones of Lafayette, TN; Maureen Mahoney, a partner at Latham & Watkins (considered by some to be a possible replacement to Justice O'Connor); and Reginald Turner, the president of the National Bar Association.

At 3:00 pm ET, the committee will hear from Panel 4 which includes Utah Judge Denise Lindberg; Wade Henderson of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights; Peter Kirsanow of the US Commission on Civil Rights; Marcia Greenberger of the National Women's Law Center; Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the Hudson Institute; and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich.

At 4:00 pm ET, the committee will hear from Panel 5 which includes Harvard Law Prof. Charles Fried, Yale Law Prof. Judith Resnik, Vanderbilt Law Prof. Christopher Yoo, Chicago Law Prof. David Strauss, Notre Dame Law Prof. Patricia Bellia, and Georgetown Law Prof. Peter Edelman.

At 5:00 pm ET, the committee will hear from Panel 6 which includes Henrietta Wright of Dallas Children's Advocacy; Planned Parenthood's Karen Pearl; Rabbi Dale Polakoff; Susan Thistlethwaite of the Chicago Theological Seminary; former Gov. John Engler of the National Association of Manufacturers; and MALDEF's Anne Marie Tallman.