ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

Percent chance that Democrats can make Republicans pay an election-year political price for the deficit or stiffing Sen. Lincoln on the child tax credit for the poor: 10%

Percent chance that Bill Burkett's real source is outed before election day: 40%

Percent chance that Mel Martinez shakes hands with Tim Russert before Nov. 2: 25%

Percent chance that Joe Allbaugh will ever refer to Howard Wolfson as a "good man" on "Fox and Friends" (as Wolfson refered to Allbaugh this morning): 25%

At 10:00 am ET, Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi addresses a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill. He will then meet with President Bush at the White House at 11:20 am ET and holds a joint press availability in the Rose Garden at 12:05 pm ET.

How many questions Mr. Bush takes — and how he answers them — could determine the identity of the next President of the United States. (How's that for drama!!!)

Before meeting with Allawi, Bush will make remarks honoring the new American Indian museum at 8:25 am ET. At 4:00 pm ET, Bush will speak at a rally in Bangor, ME, a state Gore won in 2000 that but could well be competitive this time because of a kick-ass RNC effort there.

"Security Moms" will be front and center today when Sen. John Edwards holds a conversation on terrorism with an all-female audience in Davenport, IA at 3:05 pm ET. As the New York Times reported yesterday, Kerry is underperforming among women, and as the Washington Post reports today, women trust Bush more than Kerry on national security. At 7:00 pm ET, Edwards campaigns in Cedar Rapids, IA.

Taking its cues from Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" as well as Florida Sen. Bob Graham, anti-Bush 527 the Media Fund will launch two ads Thursday seeking to link Bush with the Saudi royal family and alleging that "President Bush suppressed a report to hide what his critics say was evidence that the Saudi government financed the terrorists who carried out the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001," according to the New York Times ' Kit Seeyle. LINK

Sen. John Kerry holds a "meet and greet" with firefighters at a Columbus, OH fire station at 11:00 am ET. Following the fire station event, Kerry, who is suffering from a cold and a sore throat, will sit down with the editorial board of the Columbus Dispatch at 11:55 am ET before traveling to Philadelphia where he will campaign on Friday.

"In the next few days, Kerry is scheduled to give a speech outlining steps to defeat terrorism," USA Today reports. LINK

Vice President Cheney speaks at a 4:35 pm ET rally in St. Joseph, MO just one day after the AP's Ron Fournier confirmed that the Kerry campaign has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in the state of Missouri, a state which has voted for the winner in all but one presidential election since 1900. The Kerry campaign has also canceled its tentative plans to start advertising in Arizona, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

"Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too." LINK

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