The Note

ByABC News
June 22, 2004, 10:05 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, June 22, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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Given his giant lead in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, it seems virtually impossible that John Kerry can lose the election.

When The Note starts out with a lead that tongue in cheek, you have to be on the lookout.

So from the list below, identify the five items about which we are serious, and the five that are jokey:

WAYS JOHN KERRY CAN STILL BLOW THE ELECTION (leaving out things beyond his control):

1. Failure to read and understand David Brooks' if-you-read-only-one-article-today-let-it-be-this-must-read op-ed piece in the New York Times about the Kerry and Democratic failure to understand the importance of faith in public life. (John Podesta and Bill Clinton excepted . . . ) LINK

2. Leaves room for Bush-Cheney spokesguy Steve Schmidt to go door-to-door to convince each and every American that every single utterance, act, or historical move by John Kerry illustrates to a fare thee well that the Massachusetts Senator tries to take both sides of every issue and is a man of no convictions who will say anything to get elected.

3. Not enough endorsements from Nobel laureates.

4. Failure to pick as his running mate any of the candidates supported by David Ginsberg, Steve Elmendorf, and/or Bob Shrum.

5. Failure to get the country to see him as Vanessa and Alex see him.

6. Can't get a certain communications staffer to give up one of her three jobs.

7. Comes off in the debates as arrogant, sighing, and truth hedging.

8. Is overshadowed by Bill Clinton.

9. Loses his home state.

10. Utters this magic phrase in his acceptance speech: "Who among us doesn't love NASCAR?"

OK, maybe only four of the 10 were serious, but you (we hope) get our point.

Sen. Kerry canceled a New Mexico campaign stop today and returned to Washington early Tuesday morning to co-sponsor Sen. Daschle's veterans health care amendment to the Defense Authorization Bill. Kerry has been criticized recently by Massachusetts Republicans for missing more than 75 percent of this current congressional session's votes. It's not clear at this writing how he will spend his day, or why, exactly, he decided this was a vote he needed to make.

At 12:15 pm ET, his campaign strategists will do a conference call briefing for the media on their sense of the state of the race.

Majority Leader Frist is determined to see the veterans bill finished by Tuesday night, and he warned Senators today to prepare for a long Tuesday night in anticipation of a series of votes to finish the bill. Some in the Senate believe Wednesday is a little more realistic. With the bill then concluded, there's been some talk of having the Senate take up the Defense Appropriations Bill on Wednesday.

President Bush meets with the Prime Minister of Hungary and speaks at the White House's Black Music Month Reception. Meanwhile the Bush campaign continues to paint John Kerry as a "pessimist" with a Sen. Zell Miller conference call on the subject in addition to releasing a new radio ad in battleground states.

First Lady Laura Bush hosts an online chat at http://www.georgewbush.com/Chat

Teresa Heinz Kerry hosts a discussion about women and the economy and also holds a press conference at Miami-Dade Community College in Florida.

Former President Clinton attends book signings in New York City and appears on tape on "Oprah." (check local listings)

State primaries will also be held in Utah and South Carolina, prominently featuring the Republican gubernatorial battle between Jim Huntsman Jr. and Nolan Karras in Utah and the Republican Senate runoff between former South Carolina Gov. David Beasley and Rep. Jim DeMint. The Palmetto State polls are open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm ET. Beehive State voters can vote from 9:00 am to 10:00 pm ET.

"My Life":

Last night's Clinton book party at the Met was exactly what one might expect -- lots of people breaking off conversations (about Kerry, Michiko, Dan) to crane their necks in the direction of the 42nd President who, as always, moved seemingly with a spectral spotlight overhead.

Amidst the classic Clinton-NYC-usual-suspect-crowd milled Administration bigs Roger Altman, Dan Glickman, Bob Rubin, and Bruce Reed; HBO honcho Craig Minassian; Lauren Bacall; Bob Barnett (duh); Mark Green; Toni Morrison; Ken Burns; Viewer and Clinton fan Star Jones with groom Al Reynolds; Note neighbors Robert and Ina Caro; genial first-tier FOB Tommy Caplan; a sizable number of Times people including the almighty trio Gail Collins, Arthur Sulzberger and Bill Keller (with Emma Gilbey) -- no doubt the invites went out before the Sunday review hit the web and the streets; and WCBS' deft and dashing Andrew Kirtzman, who was juggling a downtown budget deal with the uptown soiree, all the while chatting with his weekend neighbor Andrew Tobias and legendary pop master Robert Rauschenberg.

The dress was balmy-summer-night-by-way-of -D.C. -- a little frumpier than usual overall, despite a splash of Prada tie-dye here, a dash of Dries Van Noten there-with only the film stars, television personalities, and fashion execs (including ultimately fashionable Anna Wintour) looking truly glamorous.

Over to the side, near the Greek wing, was the intriguing huddle of book tour guide Jim Kennedy, supremely lean Howard Wolfson (Someone send the lad a dozen vanilla cupcakes from Magnolia!), and cheery Karen Dunn (on loan from Yale), briefly interrupted by a nattily dressed Ian Klaus, who roamed the museum like a diligent host, clearly already a member of the Clinton clan.

Then on to the program -- Sonny Mehta made some opening remarks, followed by a glowing Senator Clinton (in pale pink jacket), who joked about the travails of producing the various Clinton tomes and introduced her husband (a revolving embrace, no overt groping).

Sleek South Beach devotee Bill Clinton (in pale blue tie) took center podium, waxing literary about life, history, legacy, great teachers, and those who helped get the manuscript on the page. Indeed, both Clintons appeared quite cozy and chipper in the Great Hall, which was filled, for the most part, with their people.

Kit Seelye (doing her best E! Entertainment Television red carpet report) of the New York Times provides you with a list of boldface names at the party. LINK

Richard Johnson and colleagues at the New York Post give the party its very own Page Six treatment. LINK

The publisher needs to sell 1.5 million copies of the book to break even, reports the New York Post. LINK

An estimated 15.4 million people tuned in to Clinton's "60 Minutes" interview, reports Lisa deMoraes. LINK

The Washington Post's John Harris and Linton Weeks write that in the book, Clinton departs from his grand jury testimony and corroborates the story told by former White House intern Monica Lewinsky about the genesis and timing of their relationship. The duo Note that aides could not explain the discrepancy, and Clinton's attorney, David Kendall did not return a call. LINK

USA Today's Bill Nichols and Bob Minzesheimer write-up their 45-minute interview with 42 yesterday following his appearance on "Oprah." LINK

"'It was dark down there,' Clinton writes of his inner turmoil. As a junior in high school, Clinton wrote that 'I sometimes question the sanity of my existence.'"

More highlights from the Q and A: LINK

Donna Brazile adds her prose in Roll Call to the Clinton book brouhaha, saying she has "no doubt Americans will rush to devour all 957 pages of Clinton's tome," and that it will remind America what it wants in a leader.

The Boston Globe's Canellos skillfully compares President George W. Bush to former President Bill Clinton and how they both have the ability to polarize politics. LINK

"Clinton and Bush are the two poles (one shaky, one brittle) in the political pathology that has gripped the country over the last decade. The differences between the two go well beyond personality or morality, extending all the way to their visions for the United States and its relationship to the world."

"While many readers await today's release of Clinton's memoirs to see how the big guy tries to weasel his way out of personal scandals, others feel a pang imagining how different the world would be had Clinton not been barred from a third term."

And look at this little tidbit: "Two weeks ago, Clinton reportedly advised Kerry to campaign as though Iraq was stable, the economy was going great guns, and bin Laden was dead -- in other words, avoiding all possible flash points and concentrating on selling himself. Kerry, to all appearances, doesn't have the political dexterity (or shamelessness) to pull that off, and may remember that Clinton's overly strategic approach was what drove some voters away from the Democrats in the first place."

The Associated Press' Will Lester writes up an AP-Ipsos poll proving out Howard Kurtz's theory -- that Ronald Reagan will be remembered as a better president than Bill Clinton. About 83 percent surveyed said they view Reagan favorably, Lester Notes, while 41 percent said the same of Clinton. Fifty-three percent said they view Clinton unfavorably. LINK

The AP's Ron Fournier looks at how Sen. Kerry is embracing former President Clinton's "economic record and taking action to capitalize on his popularity among minorities." LINK

Fournier Notes that the poll "is a mirror image of Clinton's ratings just before the 2000 election, when slightly more than half of likely voters said they approved of the president."

Polls:

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll brings some tough news for President Bush, showing that 52 percent of Americans say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, and approval of the way he is handling the war on terror has fallen to 50 percent -- the lowest yet, and an 8-point drop since last month. For the first time, Notes ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer, Sen. Kerry has pulled even with the President as someone Americans trust to handle terrorism. LINK

Langer also reports, however, that the President holds the confidence of the American people by a 14-percent margin over Kerry to keep the United States safer and more secure. He also scores better than Kerry on having a "clear plan" to deal with terrorism; just four in 10 say they think Kerry has one.

Bush's overall approval rating stands at 47 percent in this survey, and 51 percent of Americans disapprove of the job he's doing. In the head-to-head matchup among registered voters, Kerry leads by 4 points -- just outside the margin of error -- when Ralph Nader is in the mix. Kerry leads by 8 points -- 53 percent to 45 percent - without Nader.

Washington Post Polling Director Rich Morin joins Dan Balz in laying out the poll's results. LINK

"The shift is potentially significant because Bush has consistently received higher marks on fighting terrorism than on Iraq, and if the decline signals a permanent loss of confidence in his handling of the fight against terrorism, that could undermine a central part of his reelection campaign message."

A little perspective: The latest Harris poll, conducted June 8-15, showed President Bush leading Sen. Kerry, 48 percent to 42 percent. The latest poll by Investor's Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor showed Bush and Kerry basically even, 44 percent to 43 percent, respectively, and Bush gained a little ground with Nader in the mix: 43 percent to 40 percent, with Nader taking 5 percent.

The Los Angeles Times' Rainey examines the dispute between pollsters and political consultants over the stability (or lack thereof) of party identification. Recall that early June L.A. Times survey showing a 13-point gap in the number of respondents who identified themselves as Democrats versus the number who identified themselves as Republicans. LINK

"At its root, the dispute over The Times poll exemplifies differences between how independent polling organizations and politicians view survey results and party preferences."

"Independent pollsters think many voters have relatively unsettled political party allegiances. When asked to name the party they favor, they might be swayed by recent news events or even by questions asked earlier in a survey, the pollsters say."

"Political operatives, in contrast, tend to believe that party identification is more static. They say they can predict at any given time, with some precision, the party breakdown among the nation's voters."

Interesting lesson: partisan pollsters often adjust for party membership, while news pollsters usually do not.