The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, June 8, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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A list of people who are not experts in psychology: Doyle McManus, Michael Beschloss, Ed Gillespie, Matthew Dowd, Bill McInturff, Ken Mehlman, Bill Schneider, David Gergen, Stephen Hess, Dan Balz, Neil Newhouse, Steve McMahon, Jill Lawrence, Stan Greenberg, and the writers of The Note.

We continue to reserve judgment on how -- if at all -- the death of Ronald Reagan might impact the 2004 elections, until at least Friday's speech by President Bush.

Three great minds -- in the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and USA Today -- try to unwrap the riddle inside the mystery inside the conundrum, but, dare we say it again, no one really knows.

We have confirmed yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle report that suggested that a Reagan tribute at the GOP convention in New York is likely to be given a prominent primetime position. And what with that being closer to the election, perhaps it will have a greater impact on things in the here and now, and the future, than the uplifting events of this week.

And political reporters' inboxes have gone from being filled with vitriolic, negative, slashing attack e-mails from both sides to being littered with e-mails from both sides accusing the other side of violating the Reagan-inspired truce.

Two little flares:

A. The pro-Kerry Media Fund is going up with a new ad today questioning Vice President Cheney's ties to Halliburton. The ad talks about no bid contracts and the possibility of price gouging. The ad will air in Ohio, Missouri, Oregon, and Nevada.

B. The Bush campaign has sent around a mass e-mail from Marc Racicot commemorating President Reagan's death and trying to drive traffic to the BC04 Web site.

One act (the former) is blatantly political; one act (the latter) less so, but done by the campaign itself, rather than by a 527 group. One mentions Reagan, one doesn't.

A panel made up of Alex Castellanos, Carl Leubsdorf, Susan Page, and Joe Lockhart will be convened at noon today at the Palm in Washington to adjudge by consensus which violation is more egregious. We will report the results on Noted Now later today.

As the Reagan commemoration continues, what you shouldn't lose sight of today:

1. The semi-swirling stem cell debate.

2. USA Today's Peronet Despeignes, writing from Sheboygan, on the improving Wisconsin economy and what it means electorally.

3. The Los Angeles Times' Nick Anderson updating the latest numbers on the positive and negative ads in the presidential race, and finds (again) that Matt Dowd agrees with The Note (and not the -- other -- purveyors of CW) that the race isn't JUST about the incumbent, but also about defining John Kerry.

4. The President is on a glide path toward a United Nations deal on Iraq, which is sure going to be interesting for John Kerry to explain when he emerges from his post-Friday cocoon.

5. Which breaks back into the press/public consciousness first -- Peterson/O.J./J.Lo./etc. or violence in Iraq?

6. Pending SCOTUS decisions and surprises.

President Ronald Reagan's body lies in repose through the day at his Simi Valley library. Huge crowds have caused the viewing hours to be extended.

President Bush attends the G-8 summit on Sea Island, Ga.

Sen. John Kerry travels to Los Angeles for a screening of his daughter Alexandra's film.

The Senate will hold no votes this week -- except votes on Reagan-related resolutions. After Wednesday's session, the Senate will stand in recess until Monday, June 14.

Seven states hold primaries today: Iowa, Maine, Montana, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia. The majors: the Democratic primary for Virginia's 8th Congressional District, and the South Carolina Republican Senate primary. Virginia polls are open from 6:00 am to 7:00 pm ET. South Carolina polls are open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm ET.

President Reagan's political legacy:

The Washington Post's Dan Balz turns in a look at the effect of Reagan's death on the campaign: first and foremost, sidelining election activity and overshadowing most other news. Republicans hope the pause provides "a potential circuit breaker from two months of unrelenting bad news in Iraq that has driven down Bush's approval ratings" and will "remind Americans of the effect of strong, if sometimes controversial, presidential leadership built on conservative convictions." Democrats, on the other hand, see simply a pause in the campaign, and some even believe comparisons between Reagan and Bush hurt the President in the long run. LINK

USA Today's Jill Lawrence ponders how influential Reagan is on the current race: "the Reagan presidency was the model for Bush's style and focus on a few clearly stated goals. And Bush and Kerry are competing to lay claim to the resolve and approach the sunniness identified with Reagan." LINK

While the Los Angeles Times' Doyle McManus considers whether the week of memorials for Reagan will give President Bush's re-election campaign a boost. LINK

McManus Notes that "several Republican strategists said the nation's outpouring of nostalgia and respect for Reagan may have offered Bush an opportunity to improve his flagging popularity -- if he can find a way to don the mantle of his well-loved predecessor."

David Gergen points out another scenario to McManus: Bush "may emerge from a week of comparison to Reagan looking distinctly second-best."

Gergen: "'The imponderable is whether Reagan looks so large that Bush, by contrast, looks diminished,' he said. 'There was so much poetry in Reagan; it's going to be hard for this president to be seen on the same plane.'"

The Washington Post's David Ignatius looks at the pragmatism of Reagan's leadership, and writes that President Bush may be following in his footsteps. LINK

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne writes about Reagan's political gifts, Noting that "Reagan's singular political achievement was to steal the optimism associated with Franklin D. Roosevelt from the Democratic Party. It took Bill Clinton, another political genius, to steal it back, but that came 12 years later." Reagan knew he was inheriting a political climate made by both parties, Dionne writes, and his optimism, not divisiveness, would "come as a great relief" in today's political climate. LINK

On the New York Times op-ed page, David Brooks invokes John Kerry's father to make his point about Ronald Reagan's convictions. LINK

"Reagan embraced America as a permanent revolutionary force. His critics came to fear exactly that sort of zeal. John Kerry's father, Richard, was a representative one. He wrote a book, just after the Reagan years, arguing that the Reagan brand of exceptionalism is a danger. Americans are mistaken if they think all people want to copy their institutions, he argued. Instead, the U.S. should marshal its power within a web of multilateral arrangements, or it will create all sorts of problems."

Because it's all about Iowa over at the Des Moines Register, David Yepsen adds to the week-long memorial with his version of the Reagan effect on Hawkeye State politics. LINK

Caryle Murphy and Sari Horwitz of the Washington Post detail the logistics of the ceremonies surrounding President Reagan's Washington funeral, including the 34-hour period in which the public can pay respects to the 40th president of the United States, and at least 20 foreign heads of state who will pay theirs. LINK

USA Today's Susan Page Notes the effort to put Reagan's face on the $10 bill. LINK

The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), is expected to lead sponsorship in the Senate; Rep. Chris Cox (R-Calif.) in the House. The man behind the curtain, Grover Norquist -- whose many hats include president of the Ronald Reagan Legacy Project -- calls Hamilton an easy target to replace because he was never president. LINK

The House will consider a bereavement resolution commemorating Reagan today or tomorrow, and Senate is expected to do the same this week.

In this week of remembrance for Number 40, filibustering the bill is predicted unlikely. But three key questions arise: 1) Will Nancy Reagan puts the kibosh on the 10-spot like she did the Reagan dime? 2) How will a bill signed last year by President Bush barring the construction of any new memorials on the Mall impact plans for a national monument in Reagan's memory? 3) In a week of where coverage is dominated by an outpouring of fondness for Mr. Reagan, does any of this fast legislating open the door for criticism to creep in?

Roll Call reports that "Competing proposals will be offered today in the House to place Reagan's likeness on the $20 bill and the half dollar, displacing two other presidents in favor of the man widely credited with ending the Cold War" -