The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, April 30—<br> -- NOTED NOW
TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
NEWS SUMMARY
Of all the variables that go into predicting who will win the White House — peace, war, prosperity, right track, bold policy proposals, etc. — there really are only three that matter.
One, which candidate does the national political press like more?
Two, who does the national political press think will win in November?
And, three, who does the national political press think is running the more competent campaign?
And if you believe us on those three rules, ask yourself — Bush or Kerry — who's winning right now?
Don't underestimate the capacity of John Kerry's speech today in Missouri on national security to affect all three of these critical indices, or the capacity of the President's appearance at the White House Correspondents Association dinner tomorrow night to do the same.
Today at around 2:00 p.m. ET, Sen. Kerry plans to take the stage at Westminster College in Fulton, Mo., looking to bring together a sense of current and past history and lay out a plan for dealing with Iraq.
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of President Bush's declaration that major combat operations in Iraq had ended, Kerry will take on the Bush Administration's handling of that nation and answer the criticism of Vice President Cheney, who spoke at the school on Monday. He is expected to lay out the steps he thinks America has to take to accomplish our objective: a stable Iraq with a representative government secure in its borders.
The Note offers some preview excerpts:
"We need to put pride aside to build a stable Iraq. We must reclaim our country's standing in the world by doing what has kept America safe and made it more secure before-leading in a way that brings others to us so that we are respected, not simply feared, around the globe."
"Will all this be difficult to achieve? Yes. Is there a guarantee of success? No. In light of all the mistakes that have been made, no one can guarantee success. No one can say that success is certain, but I can say that if we do not try this, failure is all too likely."
We wonder what the campaign THINKS the lead will be out of this speech … .
As for the WHCA dinner (and the hothothot Bloomberg party afterwards … .), Saturday's POTUS turn at the mike is sure to be a fine place to gauge how the Gang of 500 is feeling about fourmoreyears.
Just watch (as both Maureen Dowd and the President himself would say) the body language. And the facial expressions. John Kerry isn't going to the dinner, although he will be in town.
Safe bets:
A. No WMD jokes. B. The President will play the solemn national security card at the end of his remarks. C. Those who remember to eat BEFORE the dinner will be the lucky ones. D. 43's presentation will be shorter than 42's were (per usual). E. Once again, the world will know that hometown boy Kevin Sheekey can do more than just build a bridge across 8th Avenue.F. Black dresses never go out of style. G. Washington's well-deserved reputation for not being able to handle a "real" celebrity sighting will be re-cemented. H. The cutaways on C-SPAN during the Presidential jokes will be vitally important. I. This will be the biggest speech of Mike Allen's life (or, at least, the biggest speech of his since he told the Times he was quitting … .).
President Bush meets today with the Prime Minister of Canada (we wonder if he'll ask the Prime Minister what he thought of Rep. Hamilton's introduction), signs the Indian Education Executive Order, and meets with the President of Guatemala. On Saturday the President attends the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner in Washington, D.C.
He starts his battleground state bus trip on Monday.
Sen. Kerry speaks today at Westminster College in Fulton, Mo. then attends a fundraiser with Carole King in St. Louis, Mo. Kerry is down this weekend in Washington and Boston, with no public events scheduled.
On Saturday, Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at the Florida State University commencement ceremony.
First Lady Laura Bush delivers the commencement address at Miami Dade College in Miami, Fla., on Saturday.
Also on Saturday Mrs. Cheney delivers the 108th commencement address at Cedarville University in Cedarville, Ohio.
On Saturday, Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.) speaks at an Arizona Democratic Party fundraiser.
ABC News Vote 2004: Sen. John Kerry:
The AP's Nedra Pickler previews Sen. Kerry's speech today at Westminster College, where he will address how a year after the President landed on the aircraft carrier under the "mission accomplished" banner, the mission in Iraq is not accomplished. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Matea Gold delivers a straightforward write-up of Kerry's chemical plant security critique. LINK
Jodi Wilgoren of the New York Times follows up on the Associated Press story about concerns of a lack of racial diversity in John Kerry's circle of close advisers. LINK
Two key things we learn from Wilgoren's story:
1. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) may not be the most diligent about remaining on message when he is urged to call a reporter to help kill a story.
2. Al Sharpton (who seems to know a thing or two about how to use the media for ulterior motives) has John Kerry's personal cell phone number. But does he have Mrs. Kerry's?
The New York Post's Orin on Kerry's fundraising success and car ownership. He apparently forgot to list one of his wife's Audis, which drew this response from the RNC's Christine Iverson. LINK
"How many people own so many cars that they can't remember them all?"
"John Kerry's appearance on "Meet the Press" took a bite out of the show's typically stellar ratings — and drew half the audience that President Bush did on the program last February," reports the New York Post's Don Kaplan. LINK
Jackie Calmes' Washington Wire has the long-awaited Kerry bio spots hitting a TV screen near you next week.
"Next week he airs TV ads on his life, after weeks of negative Bush campaign ads. An aide says campaign surveys show Kerry remains unfamiliar; many voters don't know he saw Vietnam combat."
Related Stories
ABC News Live