The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, April 22&#151;<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

The perfect metaphor for where Bush-Kerry stands right now — a tug of war, the two sides evenly matched and the flag centered on the rope never moving more than a few feet in either direction.

Sure — pullers on both sides engage in bluster all the time to spin the foolish press and buoy their supporters (and — for some — because bravado is in their souls).

But the smart ones know that in the 50-50 Nation, most of the pre-convention pulling is only being done to stabilize things and keep the other side from making progress.

The smart ones also know — as has been widely Noted in many places — that outside forces beyond the control of the campaigns could insert July, August, September, October, and (yes, even) November surprises that could override anything and everything they do.

So — some Note lists.

First: those most likely to overreact to ephemeral polling and other short-term events (in order of most likely to less likely):

1. Democrats on the Hill2. Republicans on the Hill3. Bill Schneider and the "Inside Politics" team4. liberals5. conservatives6. Dick Morris7. John Zogby8. Republican lobbyists9. Cable talk show hosts and their guests10. Washington Post political reporters and editors11. Judy Keen and her colleagues (tie)12. Democratic lobbyists13. network anchors14. New York Times political reporters and editors15. former political advisers to former presidents16. 527 staffers

Those least likely to overreact to ephemeral polling and other short-term events (in order of least likely to more likely):1. Matthew Dowd2. Tad Devine3. The staff of The Note (with one exception)4. George W. Bush5. Jeff Greenfield

Outside forces that can affect the outcome:1. Al-Sadr2. Bin laden3. Alan Greenspan4. Kitty Kelley5. John McCain6. Bill Clinton7. other terrorists8. Patrick J. Fitzgerald9. OPEC10. Rick Berke11. unwilling Coalition members12. the Red Sox in the World Series13. celebrity trials

Key tug of war stories --

A. The New York Times' Nagourney and Rutenberg report on Kerry's "reemergence" Wednesday as the candidate "began what aides said would be an increasingly visible and combative challenge to President Bush, starting with a bus trip through the distressed Midwest and a television advertisement attacking Mr. Bush's Iraq record." LINK

Beyond some real handwringing from one Stan Greenberg, who calls the post-nomination season a "'tough period'" for Kerry, the boys try to ever-so-subtly sneak in their on-the-record interview with a man named Karl Rove, who says, straddling the company line, "This campaign will be close until the very end. But perceptions have begun to gel."

B. The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times get an early look at today's release of some of Kerry's lobbyist meeting records.

The Washington Post's VandeHei and Brinbaum report that Sen. Kerry last night released his detailed contacts with lobbyists, calling it "an extraordinary disclosure, which goes well beyond public disclosure laws, was an implicit and strategically timed challenge to Bush to prove that he is not in lobbyists' thrall, as Bush often portrays him." LINK

Sure, some of the lobbyists have given Kerry campaign money and some say their meetings with Kerry didn't make the list, but, overall, seems like a 10-strike so far.

The Los Angeles Times reports on Kerry's disclosure of his meetings with lobbyists, writing the move "appears to be part of a broader effort by the Kerry campaign to counter Republican claims that he is withholding information, and to put forth the image of a presidential candidate who is open to public scrutiny." LINK

Now, about those tax returns . . . federal AND state(s) . . .

On this Earth Day, President Bush travels to Maine to speak about the environment before returning to the White House early this afternoon.

Sen. Kerry is in Houston to speak about the environment and to host a fundraiser.

The politics of national security:

Reports the Wall Street Journal's Rogers, "the Pentagon acknowledged that in tandem with its secret planning for the Iraq war two years ago, it funded 21 military-related projects in the Mideast when the Bush administration had yet to seek a war resolution from Congress."

Says Rogers, "even lawmakers who supported military action against Saddam Hussein say the Defense Department stretched its authority and hid facts that should have been shared with lawmakers." Says GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis: "'When you're talking about specific dollars . . . there ought to be consultation.'"

The Hill reports on lawmakers and Administration officials now "scurrying to understand whether President Bush siphoned off money appropriated for the war in Afghanistan to pay for preparations for a future Iraqi invasion." LINK

"The Saudi ambassador to the U.S. on Wednesday denied any linkage between the U.S. presidential election campaign and a Saudi pledge to the Bush administration to push for lower oil prices," reports Dow Jones.

ABC News' own Arash Ghadishah tells us of this comment from the Prince as he left the White House last eve: "I cannot say we're not aware that you are going through your seasonal tribal warfare now so it's very dangerous to open one's mouth here on any issue … I hope Senator Kerry has heard my explanation about the oil and he can be assured that we didn't make any deals that could interfere in our friends' internal affairs."

AP writes up Bandar's denying that he agreed to lower gas prices in time for the election. LINK

"The Saudi ambassador to the U.S. on Wednesday denied any linkage between the U.S. presidential election campaign and a Saudi pledge to the Bush administration to push for lower oil prices."

USA Today's Barbara Slavin chronicles the roles Prince Bandar has played for the U.S. over the years. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's ed board turns the name "Brent Scowcroft" into a dirty word, as it asserts, as George Will has for a while, its view that Dems, led by John Kerry, are becoming the new practitioners of realpolitik while the president is following in the Kennedy tradition of foreign policy "idealism." (Note Colin Powell gets put into the Scowcroft category.)

The Los Angeles Times follows the thread of the funding of the Iraq occupation. Says Sen. Chuck Hagel: "'The administration would be well served here to come forward now, be honest about this, because the continuity and the confidence in this policy is going to be required to sustain it.'" And/but: "'I'd be surprised' if the leadership would push for a vote on more money before the election, said Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a member of the GOP leadership." LINK

The Los Angeles Times on new U.S. efforts to bring former Baath party members into Iraq's political fold. LINK

The Los Angeles Times on the apparent freezing out of Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Dick Lugar by his party's President. "As Iraq teeters on the brink of chaos and U.S. casualties soar, Lugar has played no significant role in one of the most critical foreign policy issues of his career. The Bush administration has openly ignored him. And, to the disappointment of admirers in both parties, Lugar, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has held back from forcing the issue." The Senator "acknowledged that he had had no conversation with Bush about Iraq since last September, when he and the president talked about it during a 90-minute flight to Indiana." LINK

The AP reports that half of Americans "have concerns that terrorists are winning the war on terrorism," and that 20 percent feel strongly that way. LINK

Sen. Chuck Hagel revives talk of the draft "as part of a broader effort to ensure that all Americans 'bear some responsibility' and 'pay some price' in defending the nation's interests." LINK

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert reports on Bush's campaign this week for renewal of the contested Patriot Act, Noting that House Judiciary Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. said Wednesday he has no plans to act on the issue before next year. LINK

The Seattle Times' Hal Bernton reports that the woman who took Sunday's photo of military casualties being transported back to America, has been fired by the military contractor that employed her. LINK

The politics of the 9/11 commission:

The Washington Times ' Stephen Dinan and Charles Hurt report that 9/11 Commissioner Jamie Gorelick can still help draft parts of the commission's report on the separation between intelligence and law enforcement, despite her recusal from questioning some Clinton Administration officials. LINK

Woodward and the White House:

Day five of excerpts (and the final installment) from "Plan of Attack" in the Washington Post , focusing at the beginning of the war in Iraq and the prime target: Saddam Hussein. LINK