The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 27&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

—8:45 am: President Bush meets with Ambassador Paul Bremer, White House —9:00 am: Reverend Al Sharpton attends a breakfast at New Light Baptist Church, Detroit—9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle with Scott McClellan—11:20 am: General Wesley Clark holds a press conference with Wisconsin elected officials supporting his campaign, Madison, Wis.—12:00 pm: Reverend Sharpton attends a campaign rally, Royal Oak, Mich. —12:00 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman addresses the Rochester Rotary Club, Rochester, N.H.—12:00 pm: Governor Howard Dean receives the IUPAT endorsement, Des Moines —12:00 pm: Senate convenes for morning business—12:30 pm: On-camera White House press briefing with Scott McClellan—1:00 pm: Senator John Kerry holds a book signing at a Barnes and Noble, New York City—1:50 pm: General Clark holds a discussion on health care at Milwaukee Area Technical College, Milwaukee —2:00 pm: Senator Lieberman addresses the Every Child Matters forum, Durham, N.H.—2:15 pm: Senator Kerry joins Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney as she announces her endorsement of his campaign, New York City—2:30 pm: Governor Dean attends a meet and greet with Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., Chicago —2:30 pm: Senator John Edwards meets with Pottawattamie County Democrats, Council Bluffs, Iowa—3:00 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich attends a press conference with New Hampshire Greens, Concord, N.H. —3:30 pm: Senator Edwards meets with Montgomery County Democrats, Red Oak, Iowa—4:00 pm: Vice President Cheney speaks at a rally for Mississippi gubernatorial candidate Haley Barbour, Columbus, Miss.—5:00 pm: Congressman Kucinich meets with SEIU members, Concord, N.H. —5:15 pm: Senator Edwards meets with Union County Democrats, Creston, Iowa—6:00 pm: Governor Dean attends a campaign fundraiser, Chicago —6:30 pm: Senator Edwards meets with Clarke County Democrats, Osceola, Iowa—7:00 pm: Senator Lieberman speaks at St. Anselm's College, Goffstown, N.H.—7:00 pm: Former President Bill Clinton headlines a DNC fundraiser at Dream, D.C.—7:00 pm: Reverend Sharpton appears on "Hardball: Battle for the White House" at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, Mass.—8:00 pm: Senator Edwards meets with Lucas County Democrats, Chariton, Iowa

NEWS SUMMARY

It was the orator Al Gore who famously said, "Everything that oughta be UP is DOWN and everything that ought to be DOWN is UP."

Could the political world be on the verge of a 41-43 split, with this Bush running for re-election accompanied by a supply-side fueled economic boom but serious questions about his foreign policy stewardship?

A lot happened on Iraq and in the Democratic presidential nomination battle this weekend (interesting newspapers stories, Sunday show appearances, a debate, and eye-catching polls), but it is all going to be politically overshadowed by the economic growth numbers due out Thursday.

If you are the kind of person foolish enough to habitually skip* the front page of the Sunday Los Angeles Times, we can barely look at you.

But out of more pity than contempt, we will share the keen electoral bomb the sharp-witted Peter Gosselin lobbed onto that august space yesterday:

"When the gross domestic product for the July-September quarter is announced Thursday, it is expected to show that the economy barreled forward at an annual rate of 6% or perhaps even 7% — a performance unmatched since the glory days of the '90s boom."

"Although growth is likely to slow somewhat between now and the end of the year, most analysts think that it will remain strong enough to ensure a second-half growth rate of 5%." LINK

Sure Gosselin does the journalistically on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand, prediction-is-difficult-especially-about-the-future hedging, but his point is clear: growth numbers like these (even with balky job numbers) are going to take major sting out of the Democratic attacks.

And what The Note calls "the OTHER Times" follows up today with a Gotham lead story about wages, wages, wages — which is not quite as politically potent as the Don Evans tri-part mantra, but it's pretty darn good.

The New York Times reports that "wage increases for employees at almost all income levels are giving important and unexpected support to the nation's economy" and is a must-read for all the interesting data about whose wages are going up and why. LINK

Democrats on the Hill and the hustings, who are still trying to figure out how to talk about Iraq in order to score points, just might have to figure out how to explain why a president who presides over this much growth is still a "miserable failure."

The economy and foreign policy. Foreign policy and the economy.

The see and the saw of the two are shaping up to be the swing factors in BC04. Pictures of high-level US officials escaping Iraqi bombs give more confidence to the sloggers than the progressives, but we are the first to say this could all change if Saddam Hussein is found and things are looking up by election day.

We Noted just how much Iraq talk there was at last night's debate, especially enjoying this quote from Donna Brazile to Mr. Fournier of the AP:"There's a huge credibility gap our party has on national security — not because we don't have enough military medals, but because we have no plan of action."

Aside from the heat, last night's debate in Detroit among the nine Democrats seeking the presidential nomination generated not much real light — just déjà vu themes and intraparty battles from the past debates. We don't expect anything that happened to change the race conclusively.

Once again, driven by journalist questions, the greatest points of disagreement between the candidates came on the war in Iraq and the president's request for new funding, as did the harshest attacks on President Bush himself.

There were a lot of sharp elbows, time overruns, and verbal shots — even a cut-away of an annoyed Howard Dean.

President Bush met with Paul Bremer at the White House this morning and has no other public events today. He has a couple of meetings and a bill signing on Tuesday. He makes remarks on Medicare in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. He heads to Columbus, Ohio, and San Antonio for Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraisers on Thursday. He stumps in Kentucky and Mississippi this Saturday.

Vice President Cheney speaks at a rally for Haley Barbour today in Columbus, Mississippi.

Governor Dean campaigns in Iowa, Chicago, and Colorado today. He's in Colorado and California on Tuesday, California again on Wednesday, and Seattle on Thursday.

General Clark campaigns today in Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He has private fundraisers in Chicago tonight. He's in New Hampshire and D.C. on Tuesday, back in New Hampshire on Wednesday, South Carolina on Friday, and California on the weekend.

Senator Kerry will be in New York City today for interviews, a book signing, and private campaign events.

Congressman Gephardt has no public events today. He campaigns in Iowa on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Senator Lieberman is in New Hampshire today and tomorrow. He'll be in D.C. later in the week.

Senator Edwards campaigns in Iowa today. Tomorrow, he campaigns in Iowa and New Mexico. He's in Los Angeles on Wednesday and Thursday. He'll be in Oklahoma and Iowa this weekend.

Congressman Kucinich campaigns in New Hampshire today and tomorrow. He's in Ohio and California this coming weekend.

Ambassador Moseley Braun is in Detroit today for a couple of editorial board meetings.

Reverend Sharpton campaigns in Detroit this morning before heading to Boston for his turn on "Hardball: Battle for the White House."

Former President Clinton headlines a DNC fundraiser at Dream in D.C. tonight. We hear that Beyonce won't be there. Whether or not you're on the list, here's what the place looks like if you're interested: LINK

The economy:

The Wall Street Journal 's Greg Ip lays out how the Fed has been making its decisions on interest rates — and the debate over not only what to do about interest rates, but what the Fed would say about its interest rate policies for the coming months, or in this case, a "considerable period." Now the issue revolves not only around controlling inflation, but also staving off possible deflation.

"The dispute in August was over more than just the words 'considerable period.' As the importance of Fed talk has grown, some officials, especially reserve bank presidents, who see little of Mr. Greenspan between meetings, have chafed at their lack of input into the statement. It is typically handed out at the end of the meeting and while sometimes commented upon and tweaked, it is not normally put to a vote, as it was in August."