The Note

W A S H I N G T O N July 2&#151;<br> -- Another day, another set of big minds trying to figure out what the ascension of Howard Dean means to the Democratic field, and the party's general election chances.

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While many other Democrats are still playing hide-and-seek with their second-quarter fundraising numbers, Ron Brownstein, Dan Balz, and countless others try to explain what happens next.

Both creating and reflecting the emerging CW (Yes, Deborah Orin, you said it yesterday.), the B-Boys now see the field magically cleaved into two sets of candidates.

Kerry, Gephardt, and Dean are now seen as either long-term stable (in the case of the first two) or still white-hot enough to be rising (in the case of Dean) — and all likely players for the nomination until (near) the end.

Lieberman, Edwards and Graham — Oh, the indignity! — now find themselves facing the prospect of having to do SOMETHING to be considered plausible nominees again.

Since fundraising mojo dominates the Invisible Primary though about December, the simplest way for those three to claw back in would be to have a monster money third-quarter, but does anyone think that is going to happen from a standing start?

Other things to try: major policy speeches (Yeah, right: been there, done that.); great ad campaigns; finding their stride on the stump; picking a running mate; town meetings or the like (Edwards is giving that a go.); or some major, major endorsements.

But as we say in Nantucket, Burlington, and inside Jack Oliver's head: it's really all about the money.

It now appears that behind Dean, the other candidates will be bunched up between around $3 million and $6 million for the second quarter.

Pushing upward, and living off of the Word of the Day for Wednesday July 2, 2003 (thaumaturgy \THAW-muh-tuhr-jee\, noun: "The performance of miracles or magic.") a Lieberman source tells The Note that the campaign is at "about $5 million and still counting."

The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein, pushing off of the money to do a more-than-solid must-read about the macro state of the race, says:

"The midyear financial results trickling in this week are solidifying a sense among party insiders that Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean have moved into the strongest positions, with Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri hanging onto the edge of the top tier." LINK

Kerry's "fund-raising has been steady, with aides saying his report for the year's first half will show more than $11 million in cash on hand … He has assembled a highly regarded staff, and he continues to lead in polling in New Hampshire."

"But Kerry has not crystallized a message that has defined his candidacy as sharply as Gephardt's promise to provide universal health care, or Dean's pledge to represent 'the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.'"

"His opponents believe Kerry has blurred his image by trying too hard to straddle the Democratic divide between liberals and centrists — especially on the war with Iraq."

Gephardt "has improved his position in the last six months, party analysts say. He continues to lead the polls in Iowa, which conducts its caucuses Jan. 19. His ties to organized labor should make him a strong contender in the potentially critical February primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin. And his call for repealing Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to finance a plan for universal health care has provided his candidacy a forward-looking rationale."

But, Brownstein points out, Gephardt's candidacy is still beset by electability questions and money issues.

And Dean has been the one contender to seem to touch a genuine chord with voters.

"Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, said the enthusiasm the candidate has inspired virtually ensures he will survive to the race's final stages, running as 'the outsider' against a sole remaining rival — most likely Kerry or Gephardt — who emerges as party establishment's choice. Many neutral observers agree with that assessment."

"In such a scenario, Dean would face difficult decisions on how to reach out to centrists to expand his support without alienating the activist base that has rocketed him into contention."

"Edwards is the enigma in the race."

"He was the first quarter's top fund-raiser — garnering more than $7 million — and, depending on his second-quarter report, he may still rank first in total donations for the year. He also connects well with audiences on the campaign trail, honing a message in which he promises to confront Bush on behalf of the sort of working-families that he grew up among in North Carolina."

"But polls show that like a boat on a reef, he remains stuck, with minimal support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Poor showings in those states could quickly sink his prospects."

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz further magnifies the road ahead for the Dean campaign — and what it means to go from being "lightly regarded" as a "curiosity" to announcing his presence with authority and to making the turn from that first fascination into a long-term relationship with (an expanded pool of) voters. LINK"'He either has to rise up to the next level, or there will be an implosion,' said Anita Dunn, a top adviser to former senator Bill Bradley's 2000 presidential campaign told Balz. 'But I think there is potential for him to rise up to the next level, because he clearly has more talent than a lot of us gave him credit for.'"

But can that potential translate to long-lasting steam?

Gore 2000 adviser Ron Klain doubts it. Bill Bradley was on a fundraising streak — outperforming Gore — in the second quarter of 1999, and never claimed victory in any primary or caucus in 2000, Klain sagely points out to Balz.

Now Dean has to contend with not only turning supporters into nominating voters, but the perception in that pesky political press and elsewhere that he might be peaking too soon.

And does Dean threaten Kerry or Gephardt more? Both camps are playing hot potato with that one.

Gephardt adviser Steve Elmendorf predicts Dean spells trouble for Kerry in both Iowa and New Hampshire. "There's a greater likelihood of that happening now than there was two weeks ago," he said.

But Kerry campaign manager Jim Jordan figures Gephardt will be the one bumped off the island: "The race is turning into essentially a Kerry-Dean race."

The Hartford Courant's David Lightman calls Dean the star of the party and sizes up what two-way races would look like between Dean and each of the other top contenders. LINK

"In the Lieberman camp, for instance, strategists think that early next year, someone will emerge as the Democrats' liberal favorite — right now it's Dean — and someone will be the moderate choice. 'Once those two get picked, the moderate wins,' a campaign source for the Connecticut senator said."

"Does a strong Dean hurt Edwards, who has tried to position himself as the fresh-faced alternative to Bush? Does Dean create problems for Kerry, who has to win the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary? Do Washington insiders such as Gephardt, Graham and Lieberman stand a chance against an anti-establishment movement?"

"Kerry campaign manager Jim Jordan was unworried. 'His challenge,' Jordan said of Dean, 'is to expand his vote beyond the ultra far left of the party.'"

"He welcomed a Kerry-Dean showdown, as did other camps. Graham spokesman Jamal Simmons, for instance, said his boss was eager to compare his executive experience to Dean's — Graham was governor of Florida for eight years."

"The Edwards camp also said it could do well against Dean. 'If Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, a moderate would do well, because you could then have a moderate-liberal matchup,' an Edwards official said."

"Dean forces contend they are not at a disadvantage in a one-on-one scenario. Campaign manager Joe Trippi said the survivors 'are not about ideology.' They survive, he said, for a host of reasons, including personality, regional or ethnic appeal and other factors."

USA Today 's Jill Lawrence has "Mighty Joe" Trippi gloating that "The old game is gone. It's new politics time, baby," in her write-up of Dean's "bucks and buzz." LINKThe Washington Times ' James G. Lakely quotes Uber-Democrat Donna Brazile saying "This is Dean's moment." LINKMeanwhile … ..

The Bush campaign's low-balling of its second-quarter number (outperforming their $27 to $30 million figure with over $34 million) was deftly done. (Yes, yes, they were still counting … )

Of course, this is one campaign that doesn't need to generate next-quarter momentum by showing big numbers, what with no nomination opposition and the checks out there waiting to be harvested.

The AP's Sharon Theimer was the dominating press on yesterday's conference call with Reynolds, Mehlman, and Oliver. LINK"There is great enthusiasm and broad support for the president on many levels, and finance is one of them," said Marc Racicot, Bush's campaign chair.

Bush Finance Chair Mercer Reynolds said that 95,000 separate donors had contributed.

During the past two weeks, President Bush attended seven fundraisers; First Lady Laura Bush went to three; and Vice President Cheney hosted four. Those events added about $21.7 million to the account.

Direct mail contributions totaled $4.5 million.

Internet numbers were NOT Deanlike — $700,000. (Dean raised $800,000 in a day).

We know the Dean campaign took some satisfaction in having outraised President Bush on the Internet by more than 4 to 1.

At this point in 1999, the Bush campaign had raised a record $37.2 million, but started sooner.

Campaign manager Ken Mehlman re-affirmed their intention to take federal matching funds for the general election.

Someday, of course, issues WILL matter, both in determining the Democratic nominee and in the general election.

While the White House continues to share our amazement that Democrats aren't talking in a more focused way about the economy, national security looms out there.

Sure: one day, the president could stride into the briefing room and announce the joint captures of Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, and the anthrax culprit.

But, until and unless that happens, there is no doubt that the RIGHT Democrat can surely dream of making general election hay even on Mr. Bush's perceived strength.

The Dow Jones trio of Harwood, Robbins, and Barrionuevo* has a surprisingly downbeat story about how a possible Iraq quagmire could hurt President Bush politically.

The story (found nestled on A4 of your Wall Street Journal ) echoes Mr. Russert from Today today in saying that "strategists for Mr. Bush and Republican Party" believe that "the combination of casualties and difficulties in restoring stability in Iraq pose a potential problem that extends beyond the unresolved search for weapons of mass destruction."

Bob Graham and Howard Dean get to pound on the president's credibility, and Kerry pollster Mark Mellman is shockingly (and, some might say, with grand tone deafness) open about what the "focus groups" are showing about public attitudes on American spending in Iraq.

As for this very day, it's a huge one for Dean Meetups across the country. About 50,000 supporters are expected to participate. Deanies will be asked to "adopt an Iowan" for the purposes of political persuasion.

Meetup's Myles Weissleder says about 260 cities and towns will host the events, which begin at 7 ET.

Also today, Congressman Gephardt campaigns in Oklahoma. Senator Kerry continues his long march through New Hampshire. Congressman Kucinich campaigns in New Mexico. Senator Graham is in South Carolina. And Governor Dean flies from Iowa to New Hampshire.

President Bush has no scheduled public events.

In today's California Recall headlines:

--30-year-old weapons charges against Darrell Issa resurface in the San Francisco Chronicle today.