Morning Show Wrap

NBC's Tim Russert said that of the 80,000 people who showed up in Philadelphia yesterday, "probably all of them" had come to see Clinton. Asked if surrogates like Clinton on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side can work, Russert said, "This race is so tight that if it can affect one half of one percent, it works." Russert said Clinton still thinks Kerry can steal Arkansas. Russert called Hawaii "nip and tuck" and noted that the Bush people "think they can steal it." Lauer said Bush thinks he can steal Michigan. Russert: said Kerry thinks he can steal Colorado. But putting aside those possible steals, NBC had an Electoral Map that showed Bush with 222 Electoral Votes to Kerry's 207. Russert then ran through a series of permutations for how Bush and Kerry can get to 270. Russert agreed with Lauer that it worries Bush's campaign that first time voters prefer Kerry by a 59 to 40 margin. But he noted that Republicans are hoping that undecided voters, which usually break for the challenger, will go for the incumbent this time because of concerns about terrorism. Russert said there are 300,000 newly registered voters in Ohio. Russert is expecting a huge turnout. Asked if the missing weapons story was an explosive story, Russert said, "It sure is." He said someone in the Bush Administration told him "we're running against the clock." Russert said yesterday's report was "not good" because it controlled the news cycle and allowed Kerry to talk about the mismanagement of the war in Iraq.

SCOTUS:

ABC's Claire Shipman took a substantive look at what impact a Bush or Kerry win would have on future Supreme Court decisions on things like affirmative action and abortion. As for the politics, Shipman said conservatives and Republicans tend to be more animated by judicial choices than Democrats.

NBC's Pete Williams says it will be hard to get more than a moderate on the Supreme Court.

On CBS' Early Show, Amy Walters of the Cook Political Report said she thinks Rehnquist's illness will help generate their bases.

CLINTON, GIULIANI AND WEAPONS:

CBS' Jim Axelrod: "The biggest crowd of John Kerry's fall campaign turned out for a two-fer in Philadelphia—Kerry and former President Bill Clinton, seven weeks from bypass surgery…. He wasn't in full Elvis. His face was pale. His voice a little soft. He seemed to be keeping something in check as he expressed support for Kerry…. He still is the best thing the Democrats have in rallying two groups Kerry needs a week from today: women and minorities… Kerry spent the day hitting the President hard for the loss of 380 tons of explosives missing from a site in Iraq the US military was supposed to be guarding."

NBC's Campbell Brown: Recapped Clinton, Giuliani and Kerry's weapons charge. She then said: "With the race so close in the most crucial states, like Ohio, voter turnout is a top priority. Republicans plan to put more than 3,000 monitors at polling places on election day claiming Democrats have illegally registered new voters here. Democrats counter the Republicans' real intent is to create long lines and discourage people from voting, especially minorities. There are a lot of concerns here on the ground in Ohio that there might be efforts underway by the two sides to steal the election."

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