The Note

ByABC News
November 16, 2004, 10:18 AM

WASHINGTON — --

70 Days Until Inauguration Day

Let's be clear: for all the flexing and stretching of the "confirmation battle" muscles, it seems unlikely that Democrats are going to filibuster any of the President's new Cabinet choices, and getting a majority to vote against someone would require Republican defections that are so unlikely as to be nearly unimaginable.

In fact, if something was revealed about a nominee that would cause a bad rift between the GOP Hill and the White House, it would be something so bad the Administration would almost certainly stand down.

Nonetheless, the interest group/party out of power/media Iron Triangle has to play its inherited role, so off we go:

Dana Milbank of the Washington Post Notes that White House counsel/Attorney General nominee Alberto Gonzales "could hardly be more different from John D. Ashcroft," a lawyer known more for his loyalty to George W. Bush than for his political skills. LINK

It is perhaps too glib to say that Bush nominated Gonzales because he trusts him, but trust matters to this President, the Los Angeles Times reminds the world. LINK

In their news analysis, Dick Stevenson and David Johnston (of the New York Times) sum up the questions raised about Gonazles: "He is viewed with some suspicion by Democrats, who promised on Wednesday to question him aggressively about his role in setting administration policy on detaining and questioning people captured in the effort to combat terrorism. And he is seen as unreliable by many conservatives, who said he has not been sufficiently hard line on the issues of most concern to them, including abortion and affirmative action." LINK

"The untold story from last week's Republican victory was the ineffectiveness of the left's attacks on right-wing reform. Democrats surprisingly did not launch a national campaign against partial privatization of Social Security. They did unlimber heavy artillery against radical changes in federal taxation but ended up shooting duds," writes Bob Novak in a must-read and seriously substantive column. LINK

Two other must-reads for the Gang of 500, both on the Wall Street Journal's august op-ed page -- Al Hunt's reasoned and reasonable "what should Democrats do now?" and Lieberman adviser Dan Gerstein (trying to get that feeling again, or, at least, trying to rev up some early winter Joementum), doing his own version of "what should Democrats do now?" which includes an explicit and full-throated denunciation of Bob Shrum.

The New York Times plays second-day catch-up to the New York Post's Dicker on the Arthur Finklestein story. LINK

The Boston papers watched Sen. Clinton speak at Tufts, in her towering and teasing manner. LINK and LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Greg Hitt looks at the evangelical battle against Sen. Arlen Specter becoming chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and the conservative right's overall legislative efforts.

At the heart of conservative angst about Arlen Specter: Bork memories, says the New York Times. LINK

Republican Rossi edges back in front in the Washington state gubernatorial race. LINK

Blue state values mavens will get a kick out of Frank Rich's Sunday column. LINK

As long as there is a News Corp., a Rupert Murdoch, and conservatives who love sex, pills, and gaming, Rich will always have foils to play with.

Re: the DNC chair: the Vilsack boomlet grows. LINK

Manuel Roig-Franzia and Dan Keating of the Washington Post take a look at the conspiracy theories still breathing after the election positing that John Kerry really won, and conclude that "Ultimately, none of the most popular theories holds up to close scrutiny. And the people who most stand to benefit from the conspiracy theories -- the Kerry campaign and the Democratic National Committee -- are not biting." LINK

The AFL-CIO is looking at how to restructure organized labor, the Washington Post's Amy Joyce and Tom Edsall report. LINK

Apparently, John Kerry spoke to the House of Labor, and left even fewer footprints in the snow there than he did in his previous Hill appearance.

The Washington Post's John Harris looks at the launch of Third Way, an advocacy group of moderate Democrats in the Senate with a legislative agenda to be launched in early 2005 -- "the latest in a series of organizations aimed at rescuing Democrats from the perception that they have lost touch with middle-class voters." LINK

Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post looks at how the Bush Administration may view the death of Yasser Arafat as an opening in the Middle East peace process, and thus could end up a way for the U.S. to mend some relationships with European countries who viewed him differently. All eyes on Prime Minister Tony Blair's White House visit today. LINK

ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports that the U.S. will send Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns to Arafat's funeral. There are still discussions about sending additional, possibly more senior, (possibly former heads of state?) representatives.

You cannot let the day go by without reading Judy Miller's Arafat obit. LINK

The Washington Post's Lee Hockstader turns in an excellent Arafat profile. LINK