The Note: "Nancy, It's George Bush."


Eight Simple Note Rules for Election Day:

1. The exit polls are fully embargoed and quarantined until 5:00 pm ET.

2. There are no pooled exit polls in House races.

3. IF, if, if, the Democrats take control of the House, the key moment of the night (or morning) will be when President Bush calls Leader Pelosi. Note prediction: You will be stunned by what he says to her (and, perhaps, what she says back).

4. There are no pooled exit polls in House races.

5. Cautiously: NY2X, IN2X, CT, PA2X, CO, FL, AZ, IA, NC, NH, OH2X.

6. 4/5 MO, MT, RI, TN, VA, plus holds.

7. There are no pooled exit polls in House races.

8. There is no way to know the level of national or state turnout with any certainty today.

ABC News' Karen Travers reports that President Bush has voted in Crawford, TX this morning. On his way into the polling station he said he was "feeling good" and that he had pretty much made up his mind as to how he was going to vote. Even veteran Bush watchers were powerless to analyze the body language.

On his way out of the voting station, President Bush encouraged everyone to get out to vote today. He took no questions. The First Couple now head back to the ranch for a couple of hours before winging their way to the White House to watch the returns.

Nancy Pelosi's daughter has not yet given birth, so the House Minority Leader remains in Washington, DC . . . for now.

Ken Mehlman will be at the RNC today, where he has 36 local, regional and national media hits scheduled.

For President Bill Clinton and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) voted at Douglass Graffin Elementary School at 8:45 am ET in Chappaqua, NY. Per ABC News' Kate Snow, the Junior Senator from New York said earlier at the local train station, "I am feeling great personally, it has been a great campaign I love campaigning . . . . . I am hopeful for a good turnout because so mush is at state in the country and I am hoping for a democratic majority."

The Clintons will spend their evening at an election night celebration at the Sheraton New York Hotel and Towers. The activity gets underway at 8:00 pm ET.

Senatorial candidate John Spencer (R-NY) votes at Saunders High School at 10:30 am ET in Yonkers, NY.

The DCCC and DSCC hold a joint election night watch party at 8:00 pm ET at the Hyatt Regency Washington on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC.

Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) was expected to vote at the Wild Horse Creek Elementary School at 7:30 am ET in Chesterfield, MO.

Claire McCaskill (D-MO) was expected to vote at the Kirkwood Community Center at 7:30 am ET in Kirkwood, MO.

Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) and Claire McCaskill hold their election night parties in St. Louis tonight, Talent at the Frontenac Hilton and McCaskill at the Renaissance Grand Hotel downtown.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) voted at the Wallace School in Hoboken, NJ at 6:15 am ET. He holds his election night party at his campaign headquarters, the East Brunswick Hilton, in East Brunswick, NJ at 7:00 pm ET.

Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) voted at Westfield Public Library at 7:45 am ET in Westfield, NJ. Getting an early start before he voted, Kean held a meet and greet at the train station in Westfield, NJ at 6:00 am ET. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) joins him for a main street walk in Hackensack at 12:30 pm ET. His campaign headquarters for tonight is located at the Bridgewater Marriot in Bridgewater, NJ.

Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) voted at Metcalf School in Exeter, RI at 7:00 am ET.

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) voted at Temple Beth Elementary in Providence at 7:30 am ET.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) votes at 12:00 pm ET at the Phoenix Calvary Temple in Phoenix, AZ.

Senatorial candidate Ben Cardin (D-MD) greets voters at 8:45 am ET at Largo High School in Upper Marlboro, VA. He later greets more voters at 10:00 am ET at Leisure World at 10:00 am ET in Silver Spring, MD.

Senatorial candidate Michael Steele (R-MD) holds an Election Night celebration at 9:00 pm ET at the Comfort Inn in Bowie, MD.

Senatorial candidate Jim Webb (D-VA) casts his vote at 10:00 am ET at Bailey's Elementary School in Falls Church, VA. He holds his election night party at the Sheraton Premiere at Tysons Corner in Vienna, VA at 7:00 pm ET.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) voted at 7:00 am ET at the Washington Mill Elementary School in Alexandria, VA. Later Allen participates in election night activities at the Richmond Marriott in Richmond, VA at 8:00 pm ET.

Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) participates in the Montana GOP Victory 2006 Celebration at the Billings Hotel and Convention Center at 10:00 pm ET in Billings, MT. He votes earlier in the day at 12:00 pm ET at Sand Stone Elementary School in Billings, MT. Burns' opponent, Jon Tester, voted early on Oct 20 in Fort Benton, MT.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger votes at noon ET at Crestwood Hills Recreation Center in Los Angeles, CA. He then visits the San Diego Victory Headquarters at 2:15 pm ET in San Diego, CA. Next, the governor heads to visit the Long Beach Republican Victory Headquarters in Long Beach, CA at 4:15 pm ET. Mr. Schwarzenegger spends his election night at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills CA. The event kicks off at 10:30 pm ET.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) voted at 8:00 am ET at Belmont Town Hall Belmont, MA. Mr. Romney attends his Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey's election night celebration at 7:30 pm ET at the Sheraton Boston Hotel in Boston, MA.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) voted at 7:00 am ET at P.S. 6. He then campaigns at 72nd and Broadway stations throughout the day.

House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) casts his vote at 9:30 am ET at the West Chester Church in West Chester, OH.

Senatorial candidate Sherrod Brown (D-OH) votes at 8:45 am ET at Avon Branch Lorain Library in Avon, OH. He later stops by polling places in Lakewood and Cleveland. Later that night, Brown hosts an election night party at The Cleveland Public Auditorium at a time TBD.

Vice President Cheney continues his annual hunting trip today in South Dakota. John Kerry is down.

ABC News will broadcast live, one-hour specials on the November 2006 mid-term elections at 10:00 PM ET and 10:00 PM PT on the ABC Television Network. Charles Gibson will anchor the ABC News election night special "Vote 2006" from ABC News headquarters in New York. He will be joined by "This Week" anchor and Chief Washington Correspondent George Stephanopoulos.

"Vote 2006" will report election results of key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races across the country. As polls close and updated vote counts become available, ABC News will broadcast four brief live updates with the latest results at the top and bottom of the hours from 8:00 PM ET/PT through 10:00 PM ET/PT.

Mr. Gibson will also be joined on election night by a team of ABC News correspondents and analysts including:

- Senior Political Correspondent Jake Tapper reporting from the key battleground state of Ohio where there are highly watched Senate and Gubernatorial contests and pivotal House races. Tapper will also be on "ABC News Ballot Watch" monitoring any voting discrepancies and irregularities should they occur.

- Good Morning America Weekend Co-Anchor Kate Snow reporting on what the 2006 mid-term results mean for the many potential candidates in the 2008 Presidential race.

- Senior White House Correspondent Martha Raddatz reporting from the White House.

- ABC News political commentator Cokie Roberts providing analysis and historical context.

- George Will, Donna Brazile and ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin providing analysis.

Terry Moran will anchor a special edition of "Nightline" at 11:35 PM ET and 2:35 AM ET. Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos will provide extensive election coverage during those "Nightline" broadcasts.

ABC News Now will produce continuous political news programming throughout Election Day beginning at Noon ET. ABC News Now will have live anchored primetime coverage of the races with analysis and special guests. Additionally, viewers will have the opportunity to participate in coverage through "Be Seen and Be Heard," which will feature viewers' comments and questions from around the country.

ABC News Now will also incorporate college and high school students' perspectives from across the country through their video cell phone, web cam, and camcorder questions and comments sent in to ABC stations will provide live reports of the presidential race in their district on ABC News Now. will provide up to the minute results when the polls close.

ABC News Radio will provide extensive coverage of the mid-term elections. ABC News Radio Correspondents will be following key races in Virginia and Ohio and from the ABC News decision desk. Analysis will be provided by ABC News Political Analyst Steve Roberts and ABC Radio Senior Analyst Fred Thompson.

The Note's Viewers' Guide:

(+ = open seat)

7:00 PM ET:



Sen. George Allen (R) vs. Jim Webb (D)


INDIANA: STATE EXIT POLL: NO (Raw vote totals start to come in after 6:00 pm ET)

IN-02: Rep. Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)

IN-08: Rep. John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)

IN-09: Rep. Michael Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D)

KENTUCKY: STATE EXIT POLL: NO (Raw vote totals start to come in after 6:00 pm ET)

KY-02: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) vs. Mike Weaver (D)

KY-03: Rep. Anne Northup (R) vs. John Yarmuth (D)

KY-04: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) vs. Ken Lucas (D)


GA-08: Mac Collins (R) vs. Rep. Jim Marshall (D)

GA-12: Max Burns (R) vs. Rep. John Barrow (D)


VA-02: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) vs. Phil Kellam (D)

7:30 PM ET:



Sen. Mike DeWine (R) vs. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D)



OH-01: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. John Cranley (D)

OH-02 Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) vs. Victoria Wulsin (D)

OH-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

OH-18: Joy Padgett (R) vs. Zack Space (D) +


NC-11: Rep. Charles Taylor (R) vs. Heath Shuler (D)

8:00 PM ET:



Sen. Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)


Bob Corker (R) vs. Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D) +


Sen. Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey, Jr. (D)


Tom Kean, Jr. (R) vs. Sen. Bob Menendez (D)


Michael Steele (R) vs. Rep. Ben Cardin (D) +


Alan Schlesinger (R) vs. Ned Lamont (D) vs. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I)



CT-02: Rep. Robert Simmons (R) vs. Joe Courtney (D)

CT-04: Rep. Christopher Shays (R) vs. Diane Farrell (D)

CT-05: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) vs. Chris Murphy (D)


PA-04: Rep. Melissa Hart (R)vs. Jason Altmire (D)

PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Lois Murphy (D)

PA-07: Rep. Curt Weldon (R) vs. Joseph Sestak (D)

PA-08: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D)

PA-10: Rep. Don Sherwood (R) vs. Chris Carney (D)

FLORIDA: STATE EXIT POLL: YES (Raw vote totals start to come in at 7:00 pm ET)

FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D) +

FL-16: Joe Negron (R) vs. Tim Mahoney (D) + (Foley seat)

FL-22: Rep. Clay Shaw (R) vs. Ron Klein (D)


IL-06: Peter Roskam (R) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D) +

IL-08: David McSweeney (R) vs. Rep. Melissa Bean (D)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: STATE EXIT POLL: NO (Raw vote begins coming in at 7:00 pm ET)

NH-02: Rep. Charlie Bass (R) vs. Paul Hodes (D)


NJ-07: Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) vs. Linda Stender (D)

9:00 PM ET:



Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)


Sen. Jon Kyl (R) vs. Jim Pederson (D)


John Spencer (R) vs. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)


Michael Bouchard (R) vs. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)



AZ-01: Rep. Rick Renzi (R) vs. Ellen Simon (D)

AZ-05: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) vs. Harry Mitchell (D)

AZ-08: Randy Graf (R) vs. Gabrielle Giffords (D) +


CO-04: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) vs. Angie Paccione (D)

CO-05: Doug Lamborn (R) vs. Jay Fawcett (D) +

CO-07: Rick O'Donnell (R) vs. Ed Perlmutter (D) +

KANSAS: STATE EXIT POLL: NO (Raw vote totals begin to come in at 8:00 pm ET)

KS-02: Rep. Jim Ryun (R) vs. Nancy Boyda (D)


MN-01: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) vs. Tim Walz (D)

MN-06: Michele Bachmann (R) vs. Patty Wetterling (D)+


NE-03: Adrian Smith (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D) +


NM-01: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) vs. Patricia Madrid (D)


NY-19: Rep. Sue Kelly (R) vs. John Hall (D)

NY-20: Rep. John Sweeney (R) vs. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

NY-24: Raymond Meier (R) vs. Michael Arcuri (D) +

NY-25: Rep. James Walsh (R) vs. Dan Maffei (D)

NY-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) vs. Jack Davis (D)

NY-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) vs. Eric Massa (D)

TEXAS: STATE EXIT POLL: YES (Raw vote totals begin to come in at 8:00 pm ET.)

TX-22: Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R) vs. Nick Lampson (D) +

TX-23: Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) vs. several Democrats – due to redistricting


WI-08: John Gard (R) vs. Steven Kagen (D) +


WY-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D)

10:00 PM ET:



Sen. Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)



NV-02: Dean Heller (R) vs. Jill Derby (D) +

NV-03: Rep. Jon Porter (R) vs. Tessa Hafen (D)


IA-01: Mike Whalen (R) vs. Bruce Braley (D) +

IA-03: Jeff Lamberti (R) vs. Rep. Leonard Boswell (D)

11:00 PM ET:



CA-04: Rep. John Doolittle (R) vs. Charles Brown (D)

CA-11: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) vs. Jerry McNerney (D)

IDAHO: STATE EXIT POLLS: NO (Raw vote totals begin at 10:00 pm ET)

ID-01: Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D) +


WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) vs. Darcy Burner (D)

The weather:

Arizona - sunny throughout the whole state as usual.

Michigan - there is rain forecasted in the heavily Democratic Detroit area and the rest of the southeast region, including Mike Bouchard's Oakland County base, but the forecast is clear for central Michigan.

Minnesota - rain in rural northern Minnesota, clear in the more Democratic leaning Twin Cities.

Montana - heavy rain throughout most of the state. A few clearer patches in the east.

Ohio - chances of rain in Cincinnati, Toledo, and Cleveland, but more severe rain in the more rural southeastern corner.

Pennsylvania - showers throughout the whole state Tuesday afternoon. (That includes Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and that Carville-labeled Alabama in the middle.)

Maryland - cloudy with a good chance of afternoon showers throughout the state.

Virginia - cloudy with afternoon showers likely throughout the state.

Rhode Island - cloudy with showers starting around 6:00 pm ET. No big differences across the state, obviously.

Tennessee - rain predicted all day in Nashville while only a few showers throughout the day in the Southwest tip of Memphis, home to Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.

New Jersey - afternoon showers are predicted throughout the Garden State.

Morning shows:

In ABC News's election headquarters, George Stephanopoulos reported, "Top Republican strategist conceded that they could lose the House tonight." Diane Sawyer delivered up-to-the-minute election coverage with a look at President Bush and former President Clinton's final campaign efforts. While in Ohio, ABC's Jake Tapper said, "It's all about turnout" and reported on the get-out-the-vote tactics of both Republicans and Democrats.

Outside the President's ranch in Crawford, TX, Martha Raddatz looked at how President Bush's message -- "stick with us and the country will be better off" -- fits in with this election being a referendum on the President. Attorney/GMA news anchor Chris Cuomo reported on new voting equipment and how both parties are working hard to ensure that "every vote will be counted."

In an interview with Diane Sawyer, Arianna Huffington said her two words for the morning after the election would likely be "adult supervision," if Democrats take over the House. Sean Hannity delivered commentary on the "super bowl" of politics and the "two distinct choices and visions" offered to America in this election. And weatherman Sam Champion looked at how rain in the East could impact voter turnout in some key states.

On Another Network, RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman and former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted today's results. McAuliffe believed "it's going to be big day" with Democrats taking 25-40 seats in the House, 5-6 in the Senate and " '07 has to be a year of transition." Mehlman has "seen a surge, a momentum" in these last days and the only number he threw out was $2000, the amount a "family of four will see taxes go up if the Democrats take control."

On yet Another Network, Harry Smith reported on the "real horse race" that is the VA senate race, where the key is who turn out to vote: Northern Virginia is Webb country, while the rest is solid Republican, reported Smith. Rene Syler was in New Jersey where she reported on the Garden State Senate race. One analyst said that "New Jersey is the land of the fang and the claw." Sharyn Alfonsi reported on the Missouri Senate race.

Hannah Storm interviewed DNC Chairman Howard Dean on the Democrats' chances of taking back the Senate. Dean described it "mathematically unlikely" but possible if people get out to vote saying "we hope the robocall will stop." Storm then interviewed Mehlman, who mentioned polls showing Republican momentum and Saddam Hussein's trial as good signs for the Republicans.

Bill Plante reported from Crawford that if the President is concerned about anything this morning, it's a well kept secret and he showed Karl Rove's attack on Crist.


Adam Nagourney of the New York Times surveys the landscape and reports that Democrats have set the House expectations bar at 15 or bust. LINK

Looking at the midterms from the perspective of an election spectator, the Wall Street Journal's Christopher Cooper writes: "the bad news is this: Razor-edge contests can spark legal challenges and recounts that can take days to sort out. The good news: Many of the most important races are in the Eastern and Central time zones. If an angry tide is poised to swamp Republicans, it could be apparent before most political junkies call it a night. Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York together hold 24 of the most competitive House seats in the country."

In a story looking at the way Democrats have played the money game more assertively this year, the Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings gets some good color of Sen. Schumer with his "feet propped up," his voice "bouncing off the walls," telling a donor named David "you're a doll" after he agreed to make a contribution.


The New York Times' Jim Rutenberg takes a fun look at the "last hurrah" for President Bush and Karl Rove. And be sure to Note these gems. LINK

"Everywhere, though, there are reminders that Washington will soon begin to focus on 2008 -- like, say, Wednesday. . . [Senator McCain] is expected to start his 2008 political strategy sessions on Wednesday." (Somewhere, yet again, the gloomy-visaged John Weaver is laughing.)

The Washington Post's Peter Baker reports that Rove told reporters that "of 20 recent polls in critical places, 16 had moved in the Republican direction and three were flat." Baker also Notes that Rove "did not hide his consternation" with Crist. LINK

Internetist Howard Fineman explains how Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman did it, just in case Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman do it. LINK

GOP agenda:

Perhaps sensing doom, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) intends to challenge Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) for House Minority Leader after the election, The Hill's Patrick O'Connor reports. LINK

Susan Davis and Jennifer Yachnin of Roll Call look at the impending leadership battles if the Democrats take the House -- and even if they don't. LINK

Democratic agenda:

Josh Gerstein of the New York Sun writes that immigration reform and a minimum wage increase are more likely to pass and get presidential approval than a change of strategy in Iraq, should the Democrats take control of the House in the next Congress. LINK

Note, too, that Leon Panetta says the new Congress will have just six months to achieve legislative goals before the 2008 presidential race is upon us. Wethinks he is being generous with that timeframe. And we are impressed that Gerstein was able to reach Panetta between the latter's calls with David Broder.

The Washington Post's Michael Kinsley, who recently read the Democrats' 31-page "New Direction for America" manifesto, writes: "By all means read it. But do me a favor and vote first." LINK

"For national security in general, the Democrats' plan is so according-to-type that you cringe with embarrassment."


The Washington Post's Charles Babington and Alex MacGills report that Republicans deny subterfuge as phone barrages anger voters. LINK

The New York Times has the story too. LINK

Exit polls:

One of Marc Ambinder's National Journal "On Call" items scores a third paragraph mention in a story by the Wall Street Journal's Amy Schatz on exit-poll secrecy measures which aim to plug leaks to blogs. LINK

Casting and counting:

"Democratic leaders say they fear some registered voters may be improperly turned away, while Republican officials say they're concerned about possible voter fraud," reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. LINK

"Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a Democrat, raised concerns Monday after she was asked to produce a photo ID when she went to the city Election Board to cast an absentee ballot. A photo ID is not required."

"Scott Leiendecker, the city's Republican elections director, blamed the incident on a temporary worker who made a mistake. He accused Carnahan of inflaming the situation."

The Washington Post's Dan Eggen reports that the Justice Department is "dispatching more than 850 people to watch the polls in 69 jurisdictions across the country today, focusing primarily on areas with closely contested races or a high number of minority voters." LINK

The Houston Chronicle's Michelle Mittelstadt Notes that a combination of machine glitches, voter eligibility, and absentee votes may delay tight Senate race results, citing one electronic voting expert who anticipates the "most litigious post-election period ever." LINK


A GOP strategist tells the Los Angeles Times that the "starting gun" of the 2008 presidential race begins tonight when people like Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), John McCain (R-AZ), Barack Obama (D-IL), and others take to the airwaves offering their assessments of their parties midterm performance. Mark Z. Barabak explores which pupils are at the head of the class and which need improvement. LINK

Peter Canellos of the Boston Globe writes in his op-ed that Sen. Kerry's future hangs on Democratic wins tonight. LINK

"In a few months, if not weeks, the senator will consult with his supporters to decide whether to launch another presidential campaign," writes Canellos.

The Washington Post's Richard Cohen pans Sen. Clinton's Council on Foreign Relations speech which he derides as a "no-news address lacking controversy, fresh approaches or even a single soaring sentence." LINK

Tea leaves:

If you're looking to the financial markets for some indication of today's midterm outcome, look no further than the announcement made just now by the Glover Park Group (a/k/a "the Democratic White House in exile and waiting," with Eskew, Feldman, Lockhart, Wolfson, etc.). The firm that has grown during a period of Republican dominance has at least one private equity group that believes that they are about to get a lot busier. Roll Call has the story. LINK

Note to Hill staffers of, uhm, either party who are about to lose your jobs: Chip Smith is accepting resumes today.