The Note: What if Hillary Clinton Said "Jose"

— -- WASHINGTON, Dec. 5

If you can't close your eyes and imagine exactly what Tony Snow and Joe Biden are going to say about both the Gates confirmation hearings and the Iraq Study Group report, you obviously haven't been paying attention.

(Not to mention what we will hear from victory lappers Congressman Murtha, Paul Krugman, and Frank Rich.)

And if you live in Iowa or New Hampshire and haven't got a call yet from Hillary Clinton to muse with her about what issues are important to children and families and about her decision making process, you might be paying attention, but you should reconsider your conception of yourself as a playa.

And/but no 2008 top-tier playa is going to be caught dead making anything even semi-official in the month of December. If you want to feel bad for someone, it shouldn't be the political reporters who have to babysit these serial strip teases, but the spouses and children in the McCain, Romney, Edwards, Obama, and Clinton households -- all of whom, it appears, are going to have to mix talk of family, presents, and turducken with Excel documents showing caucus votes needed, the cost of 30 seconds on Boston TV, and how one raises $1 million (plus) a week for six straight months starting by late January.

As Karen Hughes always says, The Note shouldn't be giving advice -- and we aren't. But consider this analysis (a/k/a: "Notebook unloading"):

1. The Arizona Republic will not do as much investigative work on "its" candidate as the Boston Globe will do on Mitt Romney.

2. Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama, as the latter said last night, really, truly, fully do like each other, as do their campaign-staffs-in-waiting. Contrast that with the pulsating negativity that courses between the McCain and Romney camps, with their prickly principals and aides du campe.

3. Any White House expectation that 43 can hold the spotlight deep into 2007 has gone from fantasy to delusion. (Or is it "delusion to fantasy"?)

4. Forget the phone calls to key early state activists and New York politicos: hiring Jonathan Mantz, Karen Hicks, and Phil Singer is not something someone not running for president does.

5. (With Zeleny gone), the Chicago Tribune will not do as much investigative work on "its" candidate as the Boston Globe will do on Mitt Romney.

6. Two years in the Senate ain't a lot of time.

7. Endangered species: Romney/Mormon stories without the words "Harry Reid."

8. Who was it again who said that senators can't get elected president?

9. One has to wonder how many different versions of response Axelrod and Gibbs have prepared to answer the "Where's the Beef?" line that you know is going to be coming out of Democratic third-tier land pretty soon.

10. With the Madden Primary and the Comstock Primary both going to Governor Romney, look for the largely free pass for Senator McCain to fade with the advent of the new year.

11. You know the varsity is on the field when you get a call warning you that you're going to see stories about Senator Clinton making calls.

12. Watch the crowd size at Obama's Manchester event on Sunday, with good enough SOTs and NATS to sustain until Monday's broadcast network morning shows.

13. The F.E.C. makes no distinction between an "exploratory" committee and a full-blown one, and we should all do the same thing.

14. The tone of a candidate and a campaign can mean the difference between winning, losing, and being able to play again. A campaign for the vice presidential nomination can look, feel and seem very much like a contest for the top job.

Playing all this out in real time:

One day after establishing a presidential "exploratory" committee, Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) delivers the keynote address at the Linn County Christmas Party. He also holds his kick-off fundraising at 7:00 pm ET at the Best Western Longbranch Hotel in Cedar Rapids, IA.

Later today, the Iowa Democratic Party will name Norm Sterzenbach as political and caucus director. Sterzenbach has a long record of experience in Iowa politics. In 2000, he was with former Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ). In 2004, he was caucus director for the AARP. And, in 2006, he was deputy campaign manager for Chet Culver's successful gubernatorial campaign.

Robert Gates' confirmation hearings -- with confirmation expected in short order -- get underway in the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 am ET in Hart 216. The potential 2008 presidential candidates on the panel include Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN). There is a possibility of a closed session in S-407 of the Capitol Building following the open session.

Later today, President Bush hosts a White House dinner for outgoing UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats were scheduled to hold a forum on the Iraq war with former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, and Major General John Batiste at 9:00 am ET. Pelosi and the incoming Democratic leadership hold a post-forum presser at 11:00 am ET in the Cannon Rotunda.

Sens. John McCain (R-AZ), Russ Feingold (D-WI), Joe Lieberman (ID-CT), Susan Collins (R-ME), Christopher Shays (D-CT), and Marty Meehan (D-MA) hold a press conference on lobbying, ethics and earmark reform in the Senate Radio & Television Gallery at 1:15 pm ET.

Incoming House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) holds a pen-and-pad only news briefing at 11:30 am ET in the US Capitol in Washington, DC.

Former President Clinton attends a CHAI Event in Angkor, Cambodia.

On Oprah today: "Global Warming 101 with Al Gore." Check your local listings. LINK

Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), the new chair of the National Governors Association, and Gov. Tim Pawlenty (D-MN), the NGA's new vice chair, hold the kick-off meeting of the Innovation America Initiative at 10:30 am ET at the Pointe South Mountain Resort in Phoenix, AZ.

US Supreme Court Associate Justices Stephen Breyer and Antonin Scalia "converse on the Constitution" at an event jointly sponsored by the Federalist Society and the American Constitution Society at the Capitol Hilton Ballroom at 6:00 pm ET. The event will be moderated by Jan Crawford Greenberg, ABC News' legal correspondent.

ABC News' Mark Halperin speaks at New Hampshire's St. Anselm College's Institute of Politics at 7:00 pm ET.

Before the 2008 rush begins, take one fond, backward glance at 40 years of campaigns at a public Celebration of the Very Full Life of R.W. Apple Jr., at 11:00 am ET today in the Eisenhower Theater at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.

In the nation's capital, Johnny's friends and family will remember his life and long career at the New York Times.

Speakers from the worlds of journalism, politics and food will include Joseph Lelyveld, Calvin Trillin, Hodding Carter, Lord Owen (the former British foreign secretary), Alice Waters, and John McCain. Then a reception will follow, at which great stories will be told.