Clinton Faces Setback on Delegates

May 28, 2008— -- Hillary Clinton is not going to get what she wants -- that's the headline coming out of the memo that DNC lawyers sent members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee this week.

Democratic sources tell ABC News that the Rules and Bylaws Committee is not going to give Clinton the full undiluted seating of Florida and Michigan's delegations.

Instead, the DNC panel is likely to impose a 50 percent sanction on the two states' delegates. Under this scenario, Clinton will see a net gain in delegates (somewhere between 15 and 28 net pledged delegates for the two states combined).

But it won't be enough for her to overtake Obama.

Truth be told: "Even if she were awarded all the delegates in proportion to her popular vote in those states -- her best-case scenario -- she could not overtake Senator Obama's delegate lead," writes the New York Times' Kit Seelye.

Giving the Florida and Michigan delegates half a vote "would raise the bar" for Barack Obama: it would increase the number of overall delegates he needs to get the nomination by about 25 or 35.

How far would that leave him from clinching the Democratic Party nod?

"Today, he's 45 delegates away," said ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on the Wednesday edition of "World News with Charles Gibson." "That will probably bring it up to about 70 or 80 delegates away. In primaries in South Dakota and other places, he's likely to cut that in half. He's going to need about three dozen or four dozen superdelegates. He's almost certain to get it next week. Maybe even Tuesday night or Wednesday."

TiVo Alert

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