The Note: On a Big Roll Now

— -- WASHINGTON, June 27

NEWS SUMMARY
(Real) Source One: "very quiet."
(Real) Source Two: "I have no guidance for you this morning."
(Real) Source Three: " . . . . "
(Real) Source Four: "Did you read Novak?"

We could try to analyze the tea leaves and spin-off analysis of a possible Supreme Court vacancy and/or the President's Iraq speech. Or we could guess who Jan Crawford Greenburg's senior White House official tipster really is.

But there are too many variables to say anything particularly bright or original, so let's limit ourselves to this:

The broadcast networks -- rote obits to the contrary -- are still the dominant force in American journalism, and if the nets care about a story, the story is ipso facto a big deal.

And: the broadcast nets care a LOT about these two stories.

Aside from the vacancy announcement/non-announcement, the Court today is expected to issue decisions on the constitutionality of Ten Commandments displays sponsored by the government; also expected: Grokster; and whether they will grant cert to Matt Cooper and Judith Miller.

And while a SCOTUS retirement is NOT a given, the President's Iraq speech tomorrow night is.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll out this morning finds that many Americans differ with accounts of the Iraq war offered by two top Administration officials, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

According to ABC News' Jon Cohen, "public views are largely at odds with Cheney's assessment of the strength of the insurgency in Iraq: While Cheney said in an interview in late May that it's 'in its last throes,' only a quarter of Americans agree. And while Rice said success in Iraq 'will be a death knell for terrorism as we know it,' again only about a quarter of the public believes that defeating the insurgents in Iraq would do a great deal to defeat terrorism more generally, beyond Iraq's borders.'"

"These views from a new ABC News/Washington Post poll come amid some broadly negative public views of the war in Iraq. In an ABC/Post poll in early June, 58 percent said they disapproved of the way George W. Bush was handling the situation in Iraq and more than six in 10 felt the U.S. is bogged down there. President Bush plans to address the nation on the war on terrorism and the situation in Iraq tomorrow, the one year anniversary of the handover of power to an interim Iraqi government."

All of which is to say that the White House faces a challenge in the days ahead. The full poll will be released on ABCNews.com at 5:00 pm ET.

The President addresses the nation tomorrow at 8:00 pm ET and intends to speak for an indeterminate number of minutes. Broadcast TV coverage -- of much interest at 1600 and in Kurtzland -- is still TBD (and/or, in some places, perhaps "TBA").

One long-time Bush adviser tells ABC News "The President needs to set benchmarks for disconnected Republicans and independents. Folks need to see what gets us to light at end of tunnel" in Iraq.

By the way: we'll give mad props to the first wag who can work the phrase "as radioactive as Plutonium 238" into a sentence about either Iraq or the SCOTUS fight. LINK

On the Hill: The Senate is expected to vote on and pass the energy bill on Tuesday; watch for a deal on MBTE to be announced. There will be potential pre-recess movement on the highway bill, CAFTA, border security, and appropriations in the House.

On Tuesday, House Republicans meet behind closed doors to discuss Social Security legislation. And Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist addresses the Heritage Foundation on judicial nominations.

For the rest of today's and the week's schedule, see our special section below.

SCOTUS blog: Lyle Denniston demystifies:
"After the Court's Marshal announces the Justices, they will enter through the parted curtains, and take their seats. Rehnquist will announce that orders have been issued and will be released by the Clerk, and will then call on the junior Justice who has an opinion ready to announce. If normal practice prevails, the six opinions that are expected to be announced will be released by the Justices/authors in order of reverse seniority." LINK

"At that point on many decision days, the Court would admit some new members to its lawyers' bar, but that is not expected on Monday. Rehnquist will announce the end of the Term, and distribute the verbal thank yous. The Marshal will then rap the gavel, just off the bench to the right, and announce that the Court will stand in recess until the first Monday in October. The Justices will then leave the bench."

"After that public session, the Court will hold a closed-door meeting, to deal with new pending cases that have not yet been acted upon. Those orders are likely to be announced the following morning, Tuesday, with the Court not in session."

"Rehnquist would not have completed his duties for the Term until after the private session Monday."

"If he is going to retire now, that would probably come in a simple statement released by the Court's public information office, probably after a short interval to allow the President to be notified first, perhaps by a hand-delivered letter. But that would not be likely until Monday afternoon, at the earliest. Rehnquist personally would not want to mix in his personal announcement with an official session of the Court."

"If such an announcement does not come on Monday, that would not be conclusive proof that it would not happen later in the week, or some time over the summer. Rehnquist has kept his own counsel about what he may do, and even his colleagues do not seem to know."

The blogs we'll check today: SCOTUSBLOG.COM and SCTNOMINATION.COM/BLOG and BENCH MEMOS and ACSBLOG and, of course, THE VOLOKH CONSPIRACY

SCOTUS: potential nominees:
Writes Jess Bravin in the Wall Street Journal: "The opinions of Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III, who is believed to be on the Bush administration's short-list for the Supreme Court, have been called 'disingenuous,' 'indefensible' and 'flatly untenable.' Those of another front-runner, Judge J. Michael Luttig, were attacked as 'incorrect,' "beyond hyperbole' and imperiling 'the entire federal regulatory scheme for wildlife and natural-resource conservation.'"

"It is no surprise that liberal groups might rip the records of two high court contenders who are among the most conservative members of the nation's most conservative federal-appeals panel, the Fourth Circuit in Richmond, Va. As it happens, those criticisms of Judges Wilkinson and Luttig come from each other."

The Chicago Tribune's Jan Crawford Greenburg writes about friendship between two SCOTUS potentials: Messiers Luttig and Roberts LINK

The Los Angeles Times pointed out the differences between possible conservative SCOTUS nominees. LINK

Right to the White House: no more Tony Kennedys! (Kudos to Jason DeParle for getting the Justice on the record for musings about his legacy and (don't call it) libertarianism. LINK

Bob Novak to White House: please no Gonzales. Please. LINK .

And see him float the name of Judge Clement.

Jonathan Turley writes on the USA Today op-ed page that some huge and fundamental 5-4 decisions that would be revisited upon the retirement of Justices Stevens, O'Connor, and Ginsberg. LINK

Aided by Turley, the Nation's Newspaper rates several candidates on the Rove-o-meter. LINK

SCOTUS: politics of the nomination fight:
The Boston Globe's Charlie Savage delivered a Sunday must-read that looked at a potential rift in the President's conservative coalition should a vacancy occur. LINK

Savage reported on the attempts some conservative legal scholars might make to keep their evangelical brethren on the political right out of the spotlight during a nomination battle.

Despite those oh-so-important Monday conference calls helmed by the Federalist Society's Leonard Leo, wethinks Savage's excellent kicker quote goes a long way in explaining how this intra-party rift may play itself out.

"'We will have something to say about these things,' said Paul Weyrich, chairman of the culturally conservative Free Congress Foundation. 'If MSNBC comes to me and says, 'We want to talk to you about judges,' do you think I'm going to say, 'Oh no, you have to talk to the Federalist Society?'"

The Washington Post's Peter Baker takes a good look at the Permanent Campaign being readied over Supreme Court nominees, complete with TV ads, direct mail, oppo, rallies, and news conferences on both sides -- with a pricetag for the President's allies of up to $18 million, and on the other side a People for the American Way war room equipped with Joe Lockhart and Carter Eskew. Not to mention the (claimed) virtual obliteration of anything else on the President's domestic agenda because this will overshadow it. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' James Rainey on Sunday looked at the waiting game that Time's Cooper and the New York Times' Miller are facing as they wait to hear today whether the Supreme Court will consider their appeal of their contempt convictions in the Plame leak case. LINK

POTUS speech: scene setters:
By the time you read this, the White House senior staff (those, at least, who still bother to read the newspapers) will have done their usual combination of eye rolling, shrugging, and giggling over Dick Stevenson's story in the New York Times that is a must read (and not just because of the comedy). LINK

Stevenson's premise: many Republican leaders would like the White House to focus less on procedural fights and more on getting things done that real people (also known on the Hill as "voters") care about.

We can pretty much assure you that this piece will mystify the White House, with history-re-writing paragraphs such as this:

"On Social Security, the (Republican congressional) aide said, the White House relied on a strategy of going over the heads of members of Congress to build public pressure on both parties to act, rather than on working closely with Republican lawmakers from the start. That approach, the aide said, proved to be 'a gross miscalculation' that has led to concern among Republicans on Capitol Hill about the implications for the 2006 elections."

Edwin Chen of the Los Angeles Times on Sunday put President Bush's second-term foreign policy focus in perspective, finding that his turning to matters abroad as domestic politics have proven frustrating is fairly typical among two-term presidents. LINK

In her story about Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld confirming yesterday that the U.S. military in Iraq has been meeting face-to-face with some Iraqi leaders of the insurgency, the Washington Post's Dana Priest also Notes that "[o]ther parts of the U.S. government, including the State Department and CIA, have also been holding secret meetings with Iraqi insurgent factions in an effort to stop the violence and coax them into the political process, according to U.S. government officials and others who have participated in the efforts." LINK

Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times writes that Rumsfeld and Gen. Abizaid insist that they're not prepared to compromise with insurgents who have killed Iraqis and Americans. LINK

On Sunday, the Los Angeles Times' Doyle McManus wrote that Vice President Cheney's "last throes" remark about the insurgency in Iraq may have done the Bush Administration more harm than good, forcing the President and others off their carefully crafted message. LINK

John Barry, Richard Wolffe, and Evan Thomas of Newsweek look at the complicated and at times conflicting stories of the military who are out in the field and the suits who make the decisions about how they'll be equipped and what the field strategy will be. LINK

2008:
David Rogers of the Wall Street Journal tries to discover what makes Senator/Doctor/Leader Bill Frist tick, and he gets Page A-1 real estate to play with.

"When he decided to enter politics, Mr. Frist had to work out whether he was a Republican or Democrat. In the wake of his recent difficulties, he is under new pressure to explain what makes him tick. The answer isn't clear. Often, he defines himself through the prism of his medical experience. From his venerable Nashville family, he inherited a wide range of political views, including those of his mother, who opposed the Vietnam War. Mr. Frist is also emblematic of more-recent developments in the South, notably (sic) the rise of new conservative churches and the sudden wealth of the 1990s. That makes him an ally of President Bush -- who traces a similar lineage -- and of the conservatives dominant in Washington who want to remake the New Deal while fighting tyranny and disease overseas."

At the risk of offending the Dow Jones Company, here are other must-read graphs:

"Mr. Frist has surprised friends recently by coming out swinging for social conservatives on some divisive issues. For example, he led the Senate in the Palm Sunday session that gave the parents of Terri Schiavo unprecedented access to federal courts in their effort to restore a feeding tube for their brain-damaged daughter."

"But the senator's upbringing is more mainstream Presbyterian than evangelical. Mr. Barfield, the senator's brother-in-law, calls Mr. Frist a 'Lloyd Ogilvie Presbyterian' after the former Senate chaplain, John Lloyd Ogilvie, whose Thursday Bible-study class Mr. Frist regularly attended."

Rev. Ogilvie, a mixture of Presbyterian and evangelical, says there is a much more 'inclusive spirit' about Mr. Frist than his image as someone indebted to the Christian Right. Mr. Frist is close to Franklin Graham, the son of Rev. Billy Graham."

"Mr. Frist says he was obliged to act on the Schiavo matter after the House had taken up the issue, but says he'd prefer to steer clear of such issues: 'I think it's left a negative aura everywhere.'"

"In general, speaking about his rough spring, Mr. Frist says: 'Knowing what I know now I would have done things differently, but at the time, I think I probably made the right decisions.'"

"How Mr. Frist ultimately presents himself will help determine his political future, a subject about which he remains coy. Given the diversity of his votes and campaigns, it's not easy to fit his views into a specific category."

"Asked if he could return to medicine or run something like the World Health Organization, Mr. Frist embraces the suggestion. 'You are right, but nobody will believe you if you write it,' he says. 'President of the United States is a huge honor...but it is not a goal of mine.'"p>

The Washington Post's Chuck Babington takes a look at the questions floating out there about whether or not Frist is battle-tested enough to be president. LINK

The Manchester Union Leader detailed Sen. George Allen's 2008 scrimmage on Saturday. Speaking at that most-pleasantly-scented of events, NH Federation of Republican women's Lilac Luncheon, Allen Noted the president's good calls with judicial picks -- and John Bolton's nomination -- and expressed no doubt the Bush Administration will kick its way through the uprights on Iraq. After lauding the President/s (Bush, Jefferson, Reagan), he whipped out his Old Dominion gubernatorial resume. On it (per the man himself): threw out parole for criminals; pepped up academics; transformed many welfare-dependent parents into self-sufficient wage-earners. LINK

James Pindell of Politics NH had a sense that of the two high-profile Georges (Will and Allen) in the Granite State on Saturday, the pressman may have inadvertently upstaged the presidential contender. LINK. And read his Romney/Allen comparison, too.

The Virginian-Pilot Noticed their Senator's out-of-state travels. LINK

The Cincinnati Enqurier reports "details are still being worked out" for Sen. Bayh's (D-IN) July 10-11 trip to New Hampshire. LINK

The Keene Sentinel dredges up Neil Kinnock and demands a "better" explanation from Sen. Joe Biden. LINK

Eileen McNamara of the Boston Globe interviews Elly Peterson, who used to work for and with Gov. Romney's father, former Michigan governor George Romney, and his wife Lenore Romney on both their political campaigns. Peterson says she never recalls Lenore Romney making pro-choice comments during her senate campaign that her son has now referenced to in his stance on abortion rights. LINK

In the history of Boston Globe hair-splitting over Romney's position on abortion, this is a good one!!!

Gov. Bill Richardson heads to Paris in hopes of recruiting business opportunities for New Mexico. LINK

Jonathan Roos of the Des Moines Register wrote on Saturday that an Iowa G.O.P. leader has vocalized skepticism as to whether a lawsuit could halt Gov. Tom Vilsack's re-enfranchisement of past felons. LINK

Social Security:
The Los Angeles Times' Janet Hook writes that despite the President's PR on his plan to revamp Social Security, the Capitol Hill version will be a "shadow" of what he proposed. LINK

"Bush's struggle is a testimony, in part, to how complex and politically risky it is to propose any change in Social Security. But some analysts say it is also a product of a mismatch between the president's leadership style and the challenge he faces. The uncompromising, provocative style that has made Bush a commanding leader in foreign policy is more problematic when he takes on a tough domestic issue that cries out for flexibility and bipartisan cooperation."

". . . Many Republicans now are effectively conceding defeat of the president's most ambitious plans -- by looking for an exit strategy or a stripped-down alternative for which Bush could claim credit. But the fallback positions being developed underscore how much Bush may have to abandon to eke out a victory" -- such as the plan introduced by Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah focusing on solvency over private accounts.

On Sunday, David Broder wrote that the Social Security plan proposed by a group of Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee, funding private accounts with the Social Security surplus, deserves the scorn that Democrats heaped on it, but the plan proposed by Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah to index and keep the program solvent is worth some consideration, if ony Democrats see their way to considering it. LINK

Finance Committee Chairman Chucky Grassley yearns to hunker down and make Social Security accounts neat and tidy and solvent without delay -- after all, he has grandchildren to consider -- but fears that although he is seeking bipartisanship at the discussion table, Democrats are hiding. So he wrote in a Dese Moines Register op-ed. LINK

Washington and politics:
As per the Des Moines Register, Iowans are cleaning house and setting out (actual) fresh flowers in preparation for next month's National Governor's Conference. LINK

From the huge-if-true files: a Page A1 Wall Street Journal story: "Federal prosecutors are investigating one of the nation's most aggressive class-action law firms, Milberg Weiss Bershad & Schulman, for alleged fraud, conspiracy and kickbacks in scores of securities lawsuits, and could seek criminal charges against the firm itself and its principals."

"The three-year investigation focuses on allegations that the New York-based firm routinely made secret, illegal payments to plaintiffs who appeared on securities class-action lawsuits brought by the firm, according to court documents and lawyers close to the case. A grand jury in Los Angeles convened last October has been hearing evidence of alleged illegal payments in dozens of suits filed against oil, biotechnology, drug and chemical companies during the past 20 years, the lawyers close to the case said."

Don't miss a word of the Sunday treatise by Dan Balz of the Washington Post on both the man and the mythology of Karl Rove, including a look at his ongoing and increasingly visible role in the Bush White House, which put some context around the tidal wave of hubbub that rolled through after Rove's remarks about liberals and 9/11 last week. LINK

Roll Call's Chris Cillizza writes that the veto-free track record that's persisted between the Bush White House and Congress will be tested, and may change, in the coming weeks with the highway bill and a measure to loosen restrictions on stem-cell research -- and some view it as a natural progression while others see an effort by Republicans to distance themselves from the President.

The Chicago Tribune's wunderkind Jeff Zeleny on Barack Obama and race: "Without directly saying so, he offers something for all audiences. He keeps one foot in the black political world and one in the white, a balancing act with little precedent in American politics that requires careful navigation." LINK

Jane Gross of the New York Times on Medicaid rolls and long-term care: LINK

Gross' colleague Elisabeth Bumiller updates the Denver Three saga: LINK

"For [California Gov. Arnold] Schwarzenegger, platforms and pledges are splashy and bold, but reality doesn't always match the rhetoric. Schwarzenegger has often announced lofty goals only to dramatically scale back or abandon agendas," writes Mark Martin of the San Francisco Chronicle in a fantastic look at Gov. Schwarzenegger's governing style and programmatic results. LINK

The Baltimore Sun's Paul West turns in about the most positive Ken Mehlman profile we can imagine. LINK

The campaigns of 2005:
Maggie Haberman and Michael Saul of the New York Daily News include an item in their "Campaign Countdown" column about the Democratic mayoral campaigns calling on Howard Dean to do something about major Democratic donors meeting with Michael Bloomberg, a development about which they are none too pleased. LINK

"I can't think of any better investment I can make," said Mayor Bloomberg in response to the New York Post's Sunday report that his campaign is spending at a clip of $1 million per week. LINK

The New York Times Jonathan Hicks on Al Sharpton's sorta-change-of-heart on whether an endorsement of Freddy is in the cards. LINK

Schedule:
At the White House, President Bush meets with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder this morning at 11:25 am ET. Schroeder delivers a speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce at 3:40 pm ET and he meets with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 4:45 pm ET.

On Capitol Hill, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) attend an oversight hearing on Halliburton overcharges at 1:30 pm ET. The hearing is hosted by the Senate Democratic Party Committee.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton attends a BRAC hearing in Buffalo at 1:00 pm ET.

US-VISIT Director Jim Williams holds a press conference at 2:30 pm ET to speak on the federal government's plans for 21st century immigration and border security.

The 9/11 Public Discourse Project hosts a panel at 9:30 am ET entitled "Terrorism and WMD" with former 9/11 Commissioner Timothy Roemer and former Sen. Sam Nunn.

Treasury Secretary John Snow kicks off a two-day trip to Trumbull, CT and New York City today to champion President Bush's plans for Social Security and the economy.

In Louisville, KY, Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) addresses the National Sheriffs' Association of America at 3:00 pm ET. FBI Director Robert Mueller is also scheduled to speak.

At noon ET, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee visits Washington to participate in a Newsweek-sponsored forum on healthy lifestyles.

Also at noon ET, the Pew Center releases the results of a report on Hispanic voting trends and demographics in the 2000 and 2004 elections.

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) keynotes the American Association of University Women's annual Lobby Day event at 10:00 am ET. Expect her to discuss Social Security, higher education, and equal pay. At 7:00 pm ET, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright receives the group's Achievement Award.

At 10:00 am ET Tuesday, the Senate Finance Committee meets to conduct a hearing on fraud and abuse in the Medicaid program.

A subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee holds a hearing at 3:00 pm ET to consider a bill that would give officials the authority to deport aliens involved in street gangs.

The Federal Election Commission begins two days of public hearings on proposed rules for the Internet and politics.

Former Sen. John Edwards launches a multi-state tour sponsored by ACORN to promote initiatives aimed at raising the minimum wage. He is scheduled to appear in New Mexico and Arizona on Tuesday, Michigan on Wednesday, and Ohio on Thursday.

Treasury Secretary John Snow continues his visit to the North with a 5:30 pm ET speech to the Council of Foreign Relations.

At 8:15 am ET, former House speaker Newt Gingrich participates in a discussion on the future of conservatism with Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) at the American Enterprise Institute. If you can't get enough of Newt, you can catch him again at 10:15 am ET when he speaks at a Medicaid Health Plans of America 2005 conference.

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) heads over to the Heritage Foundation at 9:00 am ET to speak at a conference entitled "Is the European Union in the Interests of the United States?"

At 10:00 am ET, the World Bank releases a report on the "challenges and opportunities" of CAFTA for Central America.

The New Politics Institute hosts the first-ever forum on the future of progressive media at noon ET . Air America CEO Danny Goldberg leads the discussion, which takes place at the Phoenix Park Hotel.

Also worth tuning in to: Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's appearance tomorrow on WTOP's 10:00 am ET call-in radio show.

On Wednesday, the Senate continues debate on the energy bill.

The Senate's Indian Affairs Committee takes up tribal lobbying as it continues the investigation of lobbyist Jack Abramoff on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department releases the first quarter GDP report at 8:30 am ET Wednesday.

In New York City, Former President Bill Clinton awards Ted Turner the Democratic Leadership Council's "Clinton Center Award for Leadership and National Service" on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Howard Dean heads to Columbia, SC on Wednesday for a state Democratic fundraiser. And to celebrate, the South Carolina Republican Party is hosting a "Howard Dean Scream Contest" at 3:30 pm ET. According to the press release, contestants will be judged on "lack of poise and appearance, loudness, and quality of insane angry ranting."

On Thursday, the Carter-Baker commission on election reform meets for the second time at Rice University in Houston. A press conference follows at 4:15 pm CT.

At noon ET on Thursday, Rep. Scott Garret (R-NJ) discusses the Federal Fuel Tax at the Cato Institute.

President Bush meets with Prime Minister Sabah of Kuwait on Friday to discuss "a range of bilateral and regional issues" and to offer praise for the Prime Minister's efforts in achieving political rights for women.

On Friday, Antonio Villaraigosa assumes his post as the new mayor of Los Angeles, CA.