Endorsements: Do They Make a Difference?

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 31, 2008— -- Candidates for elective office brandish them as if they were Academy Awards or Olympic gold medals. They splash them onto their campaign leaflets. They recite them in television and radio commercials, and brag about them on the stump.

But how much are endorsements really worth?

Some political analysts, campaign strategists and even candidates themselves say, generally, they are of limited value and rarely persuade someone to vote for someone that person wasn't already at least inclined to vote for. But they say there are some rare circumstances when an endorsement can be a huge boost and even tip an election.

Endorsements by popular politicians were considered the most useful. Newspaper endorsements were viewed as having marginal value. Celebrity endorsements were regarded as practically useless, except as a way to attract people to a campaign event.

"I think, by and large, all endorsements have little (or) no impact," said Matthew Dowd, a former top campaign strategist for George W. Bush. "I think endorsements are helpful if they really reinforce a narrative -- positive or negative -- or are very counterintuitive that surprise people."

"It's my sense that the campaigns don't seek endorsements chiefly to change anyone's mind, but for three other main purposes: to confirm the judgment of their existing supporters, to gain access to fundraising and organizational networks and for the free media," ABC News director of polling Gary Langer said.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., received two "major" endorsements this week. On Wednesday, the day after the Florida primary, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani dropped out of the race and threw his support behind McCain. The following day, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger backed McCain.

Former McCain strategist Dan Schnur said those endorsements were effective not because they influence many voters -- he doesn't think they do -- but because they allowed McCain to dominate political news for two days after his Florida victory.