Republican Candidates Fight to the Finish

BOSTON, Feb. 4, 2008 — -- Super Tuesday is the closest thing to a national primary and the outcome of the primaries, caucuses, one state and one district convention will have national implications. The voting in 21 states Feb. 5 could determine whether the race for the Republican nomination is effectively decided or goes on for weeks or even months.

One thousand thirty-eight delegates — just less than half the 1,191 needed to secure the nomination — are at stake in contests from sea to shining sea.

The GOP race is essentially down to Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee runs third in the national polls. Libertarian Republican Texas Rep. Ron Paul is a distant fourth.

A top McCain aide said McCain expects to do well and could rack up wins in enough Super Tuesday states to force Romney from the race or leave him in it only nominally.

McCain is in a strong position in three Eastern winner-take-all states: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He is also far out front in the latest polls in another delegate-rich state: Illinois.

In an slightly in-your-face gesture, the Arizona senator will spend today campaigning on Romney's home turf of Massachusetts, as well as New York and New Jersey.

Romney is counting on states like Massachusetts, Utah and Colorado as his own. Utah's Mormon community, which makes up a large portion of the state's population, is expected to turn out in support of Romney. Romney is also expected to do well in Colorado's Republican caucus in a state where he was the most organized Republican with the most extensive field operation. Moreover, in Western states, mormons are considered more neighbors than a question mark.

Although fading nationally, Huckabee could still win several states: His native Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia seem like his best shot, the latter two being state showdowns between McCain and Huckabee and key tests for the GOP candidates in attracting the party's social conservatives.

The key state Tuesday is California. Polls disagree on whether Romney or McCain is ahead. Add to that the arcane system of awarding delegates by congressional district and anything is possible. Though McCain enters California's Super Tuesday contest with the support of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's GOP primary is open only to registered Republicans, making the task all the more challenging for McCain.

With a flair for the dramatic and an eye on the Golden State prize, Romney added a late campaign stop in Long Beach to today's schedule. McCain countered by appending to his Tuesday schedule a quick stop for an airport rally in San Diego en route from New York to Phoenix.

McCain advisers deny the California stop means they're worried about a Romney resurgence there.

If Romney can do well in California — take the state's popular vote and/or win the lion's share of delegates — and grab a handful of other states, he may be sufficiently encouraged to battle on.