Will Obama Claim Victory With Pledge Delegate Majority?

May 18, 2008 — -- IN THE PAPERS:

Sen. Ted Kennedy remained hospitalized Sunday after suffering a seizure at his home in Cape Cod on Saturday.

In serious condition, but free from imminent danger, doctors are trying to determine what caused the 76-year-old's medical emergency.

Doctors concluded the Massachusetts Democrat did not suffer a stroke, as was first feared. By day's end Kennedy was watching the Red Sox and joking with family members and friends who were summoned to the hospital.

Word that Kennedy, the Senate's second-longest serving member and leader of one of America's most influential political dynasties, was rushed to Cape Cod Hospital, and then flown to Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, sent an earthquake across the political world.

Kennedy had a good night's sleep and will have a slow day on Sunday, reports ABC's Kate Snow.

Boston Globe

Boston Herald

ABC News.com

An insurmountable delegate lead and powerful symbolism may provide Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., with an opportunity to claim victory over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., this week.

When the results are tallied from the primary contests in Oregon and Kentucky this Tuesday, the Obama team will likely achieve an important milestone. Obama needs just 21 of the 103 delegates at stake in both contests to achieve a majority of pledged delegates.

However, Obama will not be able to reach the magic 2,026 number of delegates needed to secure the nomination because he holds 1,904 delegates overall, according to ABC News' estimate. The prospect that Obama might clinch the nomination this week could change if the Obama campaign has a large number of superdelegates tucked in their back pocket, or if enough uncommitted superdelegates are ready to move on, feeling like the people have spoken and their choice is clear.

If the standard for selecting a candidate is the "will of the people," then by any measure after Tuesday's vote -- majority of pledged delegates, popular vote and states won -- Obama has prevailed, the Obama campaign will argue.

Clinton may want to finish out the primaries, continuing to target pundits, for declaring what's left in the process is little more than a formality, and she may even say that the Florida and Michigan problem changes the winning delegate number. But a pledged delegate majority for Obama may be more efficacious in ending the race than anything that has happened thus far.

Clinton will also contend with a powerful symbolic moment, Tuesday, when Obama returns to the place where it all started. After a week of general election angling, Obama holds a Tuesday rally in Des Moines, Iowa -- his first return visit to the state that sent him on a trajectory to overpower Clinton for the nomination.