ANALYSIS: Poll Shows Deep Hole for Donald Trump, With Room for More Digging

The poll also suggests that Trump’s campaign can further alienate voters.

ByABC News
June 27, 2016, 1:42 PM

— -- A new ABC News/Washington Post poll captured a candidate in apparent freefall.

The poll, conducted June 20 to 23, showed Donald Trump down 12 points against Hillary Clinton — a 14-point swing from where he stood barely a month ago, about when he locked up the Republican presidential nomination.

The poll suggests that Trump’s divisive campaign could easily further alienate voters. He could fall quite a bit more, particularly as the nation looks more favorably on President Barack Obama, against whom Trump has cast himself.

But there are glimmers of opportunity for Trump, as reflected in concerns about Clinton’s candidacy and broader societal forces at play this year.

First, the downside: The way voters viewed Trump makes it look as though he’s lucky to be down only 12 points. Two-thirds of voters thought he’s biased against women, minorities and Muslims. A similar number of voters believed his comments about a federal judge of Mexican heritage were racist.

Sixty-four percent of Americans saw Trump as unqualified for the presidency, meaning he got at least some support now from people who thought he can’t do the job. Only 77 percent of Republicans supported him in a head-to-head matchup against Clinton, down from 85 percent when the divisive GOP primary fight essentially ended.

In the new poll Clinton led among all age groups. She was tied among male voters and was up 23 points among women.

Helping Trump, potentially, are Clinton’s well-known weaknesses as a candidate. Half those polled said they were anxious about the idea of her as president, and her handling of her emails when she was at the State Department continues to spur doubts.

A strong majority of voters said they were looking for a “new direction” from the next president. Trump was ahead 10 points among white voters. Plus his appeal is tied to economic and cultural frustrations that are similar to those that drove last week’s shocking vote in the U.K. to exit the European Union.

That parallel hasn’t been lost on Trump. He used a fundraising email to call on his supporters to “re-declare our independence” in part by taking “back our country from the corrupt career politicians.”

While the climate might favor Trump, the forecast clearly doesn’t. Built into Trump’s campaign is a calculation that a strong majority of voters will want to reject the Obama years.

Trump may or may not make America great again, but he is making Obama look pretty good again. The new poll put Obama’s approval rating at 56 percent, its highest level since November 2009, when his presidency was less than a year old.