Donald Trump Campaign: A Mix of Incredible Strengths and Flaws

Is Donald Trump winning because of himself or in spite of himself?

ByABC News
March 30, 2016, 10:54 AM

— -- Is Donald Trump winning because of himself and his campaign or in spite of himself? My guess is that it is a good bit of both.

The political environment this year in America and especially among GOP voters was and is a fertile ground for an outsider, a tells-it-like-it-is, strong and forceful candidate to succeed. Trump entered that environment with a ready-made brand and persona to connect with a very angry and frustrated GOP electorate. And his annunciation of positions on immigration and national security resonated with a majority of GOP primary voters. He also came across as much stronger than most other GOP candidates in the field.

As I said months ago, many GOP voters would go for strong and wrong over right and weak any day of the week. Trump had a better understanding of GOP voters than any other candidate who had been in politics, and more so than many in the media.

Further, Trump's incredible ability to use the media and social media took advantage of a changing communication environment that has caught by surprise most campaign operatives who still used an old model of campaigns. Nearly every other campaign continued to rely on paid political ads, which have been proven to be both inefficient and ineffective over the last ten years, and Trump intuitively seemed to get that. We are in a reality TV era, and it doesn't surprise me that a successful reality TV star was able to take better advantage than anyone else running.

So, check mark in the Trump is winning because of himself and his campaign box. But in this environment and with his inherent advantages, Trump should be running away with this GOP race and should be well positioned to win the general election. Why isn't he? He has capped himself by his own behavior and his campaign's lack of structure and professionalism.

As I said on ABC News' "Good Morning America," presidential campaigns are like a long mountain hike, and Trump has added rocks to his own backpack making it more difficult for him to reach the top. He has made it very hard for himself to reach the majority of delegates he needs before the convention in Cleveland, and put himself at a serious disadvantage for the November election.

Despite all of Trump's assets, through mistakes of his own making and mistakes of his campaign's, he has created his own ceiling on how far he can go. As most candidates in the past have done, as they win, their favorability rating rises, the opposite is happening with Trump both among Republicans and the broader electorate.

If Trump finishes with a hundred or so less delegates than he needs before the convention, he has only himself to blame. He doesn't have a real campaign organization, which would have helped him secure more delegates along the say. Through the lack of professional polling, real targeting, a experienced field operation, a strategic communication shop, and resource allocation, including candidate time, he has put himself at a inherent disadvantage and left many delegates on the table he could have won.

Not only has Trump's efforts negatively impacted his own campaign, but his seeming inability to grow as a candidate, get caught up on policy and world affairs, and infuse his effort with more substance has weighed him down considerably. And even if he wins the GOP nomination, which the odds still favor him to do, he has hurt himself badly in a general election fight with either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Keep in mind, though Trump supporters have stuck by him through thick and thin and real thin, the 100 million or so general election voters who don't vote in either party's primaries have a very unfavorable impression of him. And this is mostly of his own doing.

So, yes Donald Trump is a candidate with many strengths and talents, and that has helped launch him and keeps him winning. However, the flaws of his candidacy and his campaign have prevented him from unifying the GOP and have dug a huge hole that will be hard for him to get out of before November. He could still make it to the mountain top, but he is going to have to figure out a way to lessen the rock load he has added or find some incredible Sherpas to carry the load.

Matthew Dowd is an ABC News analyst and special correspondent. Opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily reflect the views of ABC News.