After eking out a victory in Iowa before an anticipated loss in New Hampshire next week, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is banking on their minority support in the Super Tuesday states to help secure the nomination, according to a memo Clinton’s campaign manager sent to top donors Tuesday outlining the “path forward” after the Iowa caucuses.
“The voters of New Hampshire have a history of supporting candidates from New England. So it’s not surprising that Sanders maintains and double-digits lead in the polls there,” Robby Mook wrote in the memo obtained by ABC News, referring to the Vermont senator's double-digit lead in the Granite State. (See the full memo below.)
“After New Hampshire, the races becomes considerably more challenging for Bernie Sanders as the contest moves to Nevada and South Carolina, states with electorates that strongly favor Hillary,” he added.
Mook noted that Clinton won a majority of the women, union members and minority voters in Iowa, demographics “critical towards winning the Democratic nomination."
He pointed out that seven of the 11 March 1 Super Tuesday states have large minority populations, specifically citing Alabama, Georgia and Texas as states that “are expected to see majority-minority turnouts.”
On a conference call with top donors Tuesday night, Clinton’s national political director, Amanda Renteria, reiterated the campaign’s confidence in attracting minority voters. Renteria said the campaign has created a “coalition of color” and has made the "biggest tent possible" to reach as diverse a group as possible, according to a source on the call.
To boost its Super Tuesday efforts, the campaign is drastically staffing up in Super Tuesday states “as we speak,” the person said.
The plan is for their Iowa staffers, who are well trained and organized, to fan out across those critical March states, and even beyond.
Here's the full memo:
To: Interested Parties
From: Robby Mook, Campaign Manager, Hillary for America
RE: Campaign Update – Victory in Iowa and the path forward ________________________________________
Hillary Clinton achieved an extraordinary victory last night - becoming the first woman to ever to win the Iowa Caucus – despite millions of dollars being spent against her, an electorate that favored Bernie Sanders demographically and ideologically and a turnout level that experts predicted would lead to a Sanders win.
We believe Hillary won for two basic reasons: (1) because she delivered a clear and compelling message about how she’ll make a real difference in people’s lives and (2) because our campaign built an unprecedented organization on the ground that turned out massive numbers of voters in the face of significant headwinds – including millions of dollars in attack ads against her. She won a strong majority of women, union members, and minority voters – all critical towards winning the Democratic nomination. Hillary also won among voters who listed economy/jobs, health care or terrorism as their most important issue.
Prior to the caucus, the Sanders campaign had said that they would win if turnout was north of 170,000. Well, turnout was north of 170,000 and Hillary Clinton won.
Many leading commentators called the night for what it was: a win for Hillary Clinton and setback for Bernie Sanders. One MSNBC commentator called the victory a “legit boost” for Clinton’s campaign, while The Hill wrote that “Clinton leaves Iowa with her standing intact as the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination.” Meanwhile, the New York Times wrote that Sanders “failed to win a state tailor made to his strengths” and CBS News’ Senior Political Editor said Sanders “really needed to win here.
Why Sanders Needed a Big Win in Iowa:
The reality is that Sanders needed a decisive victory in Iowa in order to have a viable path to the nomination. His own campaign said repeatedly that Sanders needed to win in Iowa, which based on demographics and ideology, should have been one of his strongest states. The Huffington Post’s Sam Stein broke it down on MSNBC this morning, saying: "It was an incredibly white electorate. Ideologically and demographically, in short, it lined up with Bernie …. You have to look at the delegate math and wonder, okay, after New Hampshire where does it happen, where does the next state take place? I’m not sure even his people know that answer yet.” [MSNBC’s Morning Joe, 2/2/16]
The Path Forward:
Following Hillary Clinton’s successful night in Iowa, she’s excited to take the fight to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and beyond.
New Hampshire is Bernie Sanders’ backyard. Vermont shares a media market with New Hampshire, and the voters of New Hampshire have a history of supporting candidates from New England. So it’s not surprising that Sanders maintains a double-digit lead in the polls there. Despite those built-in advantages for Sanders, Hillary Clinton will do what she always does – fight her heart out for every single vote. And after New Hampshire, the race becomes considerably more challenging for Bernie Sanders as the contest moves to Nevada and South Carolina, states with electorates that strongly favor Hillary. As the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato wrote: "Even if Sanders wins New Hampshire, as currently expected, Clinton can just write off his victory as a result of regionalism. (Sanders is from neighboring Vermont, and New Hampshire has repeatedly backed candidates in both parties from the Northeast.) As the contest moves to the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina, the territory will be friendlier to Clinton.” [Larry Sabato, Crystal Ball, 2/2/16] While we expect the polls in Nevada and South Carolina to tighten, we believe Hillary is in a strong position to win. Our campaign has been organizing volunteers, building leadership teams, recruiting precinct captains and holding grassroots events for months.
Preparing for March:
It’s important to remember that while the first four states receive a lot of attention, they only represent 4% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. The states with primaries and caucuses in March represent 56% of the delegates needed to win the nomination, with nearly half of those delegates awarded on Super Tuesday alone. Seven of the 11 Super Tuesday states have large minority populations – including Alabama, Georgia and Texas, which are expected to see majority-minority turnouts.
According to an ABC News-Washington Post poll, Hillary holds a 67-28 lead over Sanders among non-white voters nationally. But the campaign takes absolutely nothing for granted. We have staff on the ground in all of the Super Tuesday states and have built leadership councils in each state, where community leaders are working tirelessly to cultivate support. Early Vote turnout efforts are already underway and Hillary has aggressively been taking her message directly to voters in key states with town hall events and local radio/television interviews.
From day one, we’ve said that we expect this primary to be competitive. Running for president isn’t supposed to be easy. That’s why we’ve built a national organization designed to secure the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. We are on a path to do just that.
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