Signs Everywhere: Your Presidential Prediction Guide

You Have To Win (One of) Your Home State(s) - No candidate before or after James K. Polk in 1844 has lost both his home states and still won the White House.

That's right: Both. There's no law that says a candidate can't have more than one "home state." Presidents Abraham Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson, Richard Nixon, and both Bushes all lost one of their two "home states," but triumphed in the other. Wilson and Nixon won in the places they were born, but failed to carry the states in which they lived. The opposite was true for Lincoln and Bushes 41 and 43, the latter two Massachusetts- and Connecticut-born, respectively, owners of a family compound in Maine, but for official purposes, Texans.

Romney will have to "do a Polk-a" to win the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. The "severely conservative" former Massachusetts governor is looking at long odds both there and in Michigan, where he was born and lived, for a time, as the governor's son.

Advantage: Obama. Massachusetts was never in play and Romney's opposition to the auto bailout probably took Michigan off the table.

That Thing Santorum Said - To be fair, Santorum said a lot these last few months, but nothing so dripping with historical aplomb as when he declared it would require a true conservative believer in the mold of Ronald Reagan to defeat President Obama. Reagan, Santorum recalled, was the only Republican to challenge a sitting Democratic president and win since Grover Cleveland delivered Benjamin Harrison his marching orders in 1888.

The rest failed because they were not conservative enough. (You know, like Barry Goldwater in 1964.)

Advantage: Obama. If you think Santorum is right or at least makes a point, then Obama. If you think Santorum's theory is nonsense, then N/A.

Cross Tabulation For The Win- No president since LBJ has won re-election without having held a Gallup-measured job approval rating of at least 49 percent in the spring before the November election. Those who failed to crack that barrier - Gerald Ford, Carter, and Bush 41, topped out at 43 percent. Obama had a 47 percent approval rating in May.

Advantage: Tie. Obama splits the difference on job approval, but his personal likability rating is still pretty high.

Mo' Money, Mo' Votes - Ninety-four percent was the stat quoted by Occupy Wall Protesters, a figure that Politifact rated "mostly true." However you parse the numbers, having more money is a major boost. Which is why Mitt's big May haul - $76 million to Obama's mere $60 million - basically guarantees Romney will take the oath of office next February!

But about that: The Federal Election Commission says President Obama is currently sitting on $115,157,433. By the same count, Romney has banked only $9,211,335. So it's settled, Obama should start practicing the oath with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts so they don't muck it up again, because he has more money and is going to win!

Advantage: Local stations in swing states, where all this money will be splayed about to pay for TV ad spots.

Obama Girl Has Turned - The woman who sang the unofficial anthem of the Obama 2008 campaign has said she's no lock to vote for the president again in 2012.

He's got Obama Boy now, but a return to past viral glories seems unlikely.

Note: Amber Lee Ettinger, AKA "Obama Girl," didn't actually sing the song, just lip-synced it for the video, so what does the real singer think? (We have no idea.)

Advantage: Romney. Spin it however you want, losing Obama Girl burns.

It Is/Is Not In the Stars - A panel at the United Astrologers Conference has declared in unanimity that Barack Obama (Leo) will defeat Mitt Romney (Pisces) in their coming showdown.

"It's obvious," Chicago* astrologist and panelist Nina Gryphon told Reuters, "Obama stays where he is without a change in status."

*"Chicago astrologist," huh?

Advantage: Obama. Que sera, sera.


You probably know him as the true leader with the clear-cut plan to expand the domestic economy and shrink the deficit, while neither raising YOUR taxes nor cutting the spending YOU rely on for a salary or student aid.

He has a Harvard Law degree and raises campaign cash at a rate his rival's staffers are concerned their organization could never match or maintain.

In other words, not the guy who refuses to talk about his record and has no real plan to improve the economy or stand up to our enemies abroad.

See? It's clear. Just follow the signs.

-- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 16568416.
  • 1
  • |
  • 2
Join the Discussion
blog comments powered by Disqus
You Might Also Like...