ABCNEWS Statement on Elections

— -- STATEMENT OF ABC NEWS

CONCERNING THE 2000 ELECTION PROJECTIONS

February 8, 2001

On November 7, 2000, the United States set out to elect a new President. Leading up to Election Day, all indications were that the race would be very close. As it turned out, it was the closest race in recent history (in terms of electoral votes) and was not resolved for over a month, when the Supreme Court of the United States ended the legal challenges to the vote count in the State of Florida.

During the evening hours of November 7 and the early morning hours of November 8, ABC News projected the winner of the presidential race in 49 states and the District of Columbia.¹ In each of these but one, ABC News' projections were correct. But in what turned out to be the key state of Florida, ABC News made two projections, one of them mistaken and the other premature.

In this statement, we discuss the practices and procedures followed by ABC News in making its election projections, the reasons for the flawed projections in Florida, and the steps we are taking to prevent a recurrence of the mistakes we made on Election Night. This statement follows a comprehensive review conducted by ABC News, ABC's in-house counsel, and ABC's outside counsel. Among other things, we: (1) reviewed transcripts and videotapes of ABC News' election coverage; (2) interviewed members of the ABC News team responsible for making election projections and producing ABC News' election coverage; (3) reviewed archival copies of computer screens containing some of the data and statistical models provided to ABC News on Election Day by Voter News Service ("VNS"); and (4) reviewed post-election reports by VNS and others analyzing the Election Night projections.

A. ABC News' Practices and Procedures in Projecting Election Results

1. Background

For many years, ABC News has included in its election coverage projections of likely winners in individual races. When done properly, such projections provide our viewers with highly reliable and timely insights into the election, including the likely outcome of races in the various states.

These projections go beyond mere reporting of actual vote tallies as they come in. They involve the interpretation of sophisticated statistical models that evaluate the exit poll and actual vote data in various ways. Although grounded in mathematics and science, projections of likely outcomes always depend in critical part on the informed judgments of knowledgeable analysts. To make these judgments, ABC News relies on teams of experts, including political scientists and statisticians, with the experience and acumen necessary to interpret the data properly.

2. The Role of the Voter News Service

In 2000, as in previous years, ABC News relied heavily on data and statistical modeling from VNS in making its election projections. VNS was established in 1994 through the merger of two predecessor organizations. The first, the News Election Service, was founded in 1964 and collected raw vote data. The second, Voter Research and Surveys, was formed in 1989 and did three things: (1) polled voters as they exited the polling place; (2) reported the exit poll results; and (3) used statistical models to help project race results based on the exit polls and on vote data. Since 1994, VNS has performed the functions of both of these predecessor organizations.

VNS was founded in 1994 by ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, and the Associated Press; in 1997, Fox became a full member. The members collectively share the costs of operating VNS and govern it through a Board of Directors consisting of one voting representative from each member. VNS data and analysis are provided to all of the members equally. In addition, many other news organizations subscribe to VNS, paying fees that partially defray operating expenses in exchange for projections and some VNS data. By sharing the costs among the members and subscribers, VNS collectively provides a better service to all than any individual member or subscriber could afford on its own. As one of the owners of VNS, with a substantial role in its management and supervision, ABC News (with the other members) is ultimately responsible for the reliability and accuracy of VNS' product.

Each election, VNS collects survey responses provided to VNS personnel by voters as they leave polling places ("exit polls"), actual vote tallies from selected precincts, and the vote count from all reporting counties, cities, or towns nationwide. VNS loads this material into a central computer that feeds information to VNS members and subscribers. VNS also provides members with statistical analyses under various VNS models, which use different methods to extrapolate from the data received by VNS at that juncture. Some models include pre-election poll data; some include exit poll data; some models use geographical distinctions within a state; some reflect political distinctions within a state; others rely on actual vote tallies as reported by precincts or by counties. VNS models also estimate the remaining vote outstanding for precincts not yet reporting, and provide a check on the accuracy of exit poll data by comparing that data to actual vote tallies as they come in.

Before polls close and actual vote tallies become available, the VNS models rely upon exit poll data provided by VNS, together with various pre-election poll data. As actual vote tallies become available from precincts, these data are included in the models, replacing exit poll data. When county data is available, it is included in several other models.

Early in the afternoon of Election Day, VNS begins providing its members with preliminary results of the first exit polls taken. As the day progresses, VNS updates these results, including later exit poll data and actual vote tabulations. All of these data are provided to VNS members so that they may evaluate for themselves whether and when to project the results in a race. VNS also makes its own projections for the benefit of its members and subscribers.

Prior to the election of 2000, those most closely involved with VNS can remember only one instance in which a VNS projection ultimately proved wrong. In the 1996 New Hampshire Senate race, exit poll data available at the time the polls closed showed the Democratic candidate to have such a commanding lead that VNS members (including ABC News) projected the outcome of the race. When the actual vote tallies began to come in, it became apparent that the exit poll data were seriously flawed and the projections were retracted. After the 1996 error, VNS conducted its own study and retained outside experts to examine what happened and how to avoid similar mistakes in the future. Despite intensive study, the experts could find no definitive solution to the problem that could be applied across states and elections. In 2000, ABC News included as part of its team two of the experts most knowledgeable about the 1996 New Hampshire race, so that they could brief the other ABC News experts responsible for making projections.

3. ABC News' Decision Desk

On Election Day, ABC News employs a separate unit of professionals charged with deciding whether and when to make projections. This group is generally referred to collectively as the ABC News "Decision Desk." It is headed by an expert journalist who is experienced both in covering previous elections and in the statistical analysis of elections.

The Decision Desk on November 7 consisted in principal part of four decision teams. Each decision team included two individuals chosen for their experience in covering past elections and/or their background in statistics or political science. The 50 states and the District of Columbia were divided among three teams, each responsible for making projections of statewide elections (for President, for Senate, and for Governor) in certain states. The fourth team was assigned to follow certain races in the House of Representatives that ABC News had identified in advance as having particular importance in the election. In order for ABC News to make a projection in any race, both members of the decision team assigned to that race had to agree that the projection was justified.