Battlegrounds: The State of Play
Nov. 1 -- To win the White House, a candidate must capture 270 electoral votes. An analysis by ABCNEWS shows Republican George W. Bush poised for victory in 24 states, totaling 209 electoral votes, while Democrat Al Gore is well-positioned in 12 states, with a total of 171 electoral votes.
That leaves 15 toss-up states, representing 158 electoral votes, where neither candidate has a substantial lead. They are the battlegrounds of the campaign.
Arkansas
Electoral Votes: 6Candidate Visits: Bush (7); Gore (3)Latest poll: Gore, 44 percent; Bush, 45 percent (Mason-Dixon, 10/29/00 poll of 625 people).
Arkansas is President Clinton’s home state, but the GOP has made gains in recent years, winning the governorship and a number of other state offices. Bush has campaigned hard in the state, pulling even with Gore in recent statewide polls. Cheney was campaigning in Hot Springs on Monday.
The president won the state easily in 1992 and 1996 and was considering a campaign appearance here on Gore’s behalf. Gore’s running mate Joseph Lieberman will appear in Little Rock today, followed by Gore himself on Friday, just four days before the election.
Florida
Electoral Votes: 25Candidate Visits: Bush (15); Gore (18)Latest poll: Bush, 48 percent; Gore, 44 percent (LA Times, 10/29/00 poll of 401 people).
The Sunshine State is the fourth-largest prize of the election, trailing only California, New York and Texas in electoral votes, and a must-win for Bush. With his brother Jeb serving as governor, the Republican nominee once appeared poised to carry the state easily. But recent polls give the Texas governor only a slight edge.
Appearing today on ABCNEWS’ Good Morning America, the Florida governor said his brother “is very calm and optimistic about his chances” in the state and is “firedup by the response of the really large and enthusiastic crowds that he isgetting.”
They’re feeling the energy on the Democratic side, as well. Gore’s choice of Sen. Joseph Lieberman as running mate has energized the state’s formidable Jewish population, and his focus on Medicare, Social Security and prescription drugs have helped boost his support among the state’s senior citizens, who account for nearly a third of the electorate.
Gore and Lieberman have campaigned in Florida nearly every week since Labor Day. The Gore camp and the Democratic National Committee have spent a combined $2 million on advertising in the state. In the past week, the Gore campaign has launched a pair of new ads in the state criticizing Bush’s Social Security proposal. In one of them, former Social Security commissioner Bob Ball warns, “I’ve looked at Gov. Bush’s plans. He’d take one trillion out of Social Security for savings accounts, but Social Security is counting on that money to pay benefits.”
“I know the man [Gore] is trying to scare you into the voting booth,” Bush told voters in Daytona Beach last Wednesday, as he stumped across he state with his brother Jeb and former rival John McCain.
The Bush campaign is running ads in both English and Spanish here targeting the state’s considerable Latino population.
“I’m proud of the Latino blood that flows in the Bush family,” the Texas governor says in one of the spots.
Cheney campaigns in Orlando and St. Petersburg today, while the vice president stumps in Orlando and Tampa. Bush will be the only candidate who doesn’t set foot here today.
Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7Candidate Visits: Bush (7); Gore (11)
The Hawkeye State was the site of big victories for both Bush and Gore during the primaries. This is one of a handful of states that has seesawed throughout the course of the campaign, going from a Bush lead to a Gore lead and now to a toss-up.
Bush stops in Des Moines today for a rally as his running mate’s wife, Lynne Cheney, appears in Council Bluffs.The vice president and his wife, Tipper, will rally supporters here with a visit to the Iowa State campus in Ames on Thursday.
The Gore campaign has begun airing its firstads in Omaha, Neb., where TV stations broadcast into western Iowa.Bush responded with his own ads for Omaha, underscoring theimportance of Iowa. Nebraska itself is considered safely in theBush column.
Maine
Electoral Votes: 4Candidate Visits: Bush (9); Gore (1)Latest poll: Gore, 42 percent; Bush, 41 percent (Market Decisions, 10/23/00 poll of 824 people).
