Political Effects of Abramoff Deal Emerge

WASHINGTON, Jan. 4, 2006 — -- The legal fallout from former lobbyist Jack Abramoff's decision to cooperate with a federal corruption probe -- and provide evidence against an unknown number of high-level Washington officials -- remains to be seen. But the political effects, in the nation's capital and in many lawmakers' home states, have already begun to emerge.

Abramoff today pleaded guilty to two fraud charges stemming from his purchase of a Florida gambling boat fleet, a day after pleading guilty to three felony counts of mail fraud, conspiracy and tax evasion.

Not surprisingly, Abramoff's former associates have scrambled to distance themselves from him -- and his money. Politicians from both sides of the aisle are returning campaign contributions from the disgraced lobbyist. While those contributions may have been perfectly legal, it's the political taint that may hold the bigger danger, analysts said.

"Members may escape a conviction for bribery but not escape the political fallout," said Larry Noble, director of the Center for Responsive Politics in Washington.

The majority of Abramoff's donations and perks went to Republicans, and Democrats are working to frame the scandal as a "Republican" problem. They hope to tie it to other GOP scandals, including former California Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham's admission of accepting bribes, and the indictment of Scooter Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, in the ongoing CIA leak probe.

But as the parties head into this year's midterm elections -- and look ahead to 2008 -- the issue of corruption may provide the biggest lift to those who can campaign as "outsiders" arguing for reform. Although an anti-incumbent mood would likely indirectly benefit Democrats as the minority party, there are Republicans who might try to seize that mantle as well.

Former House Leader Newt Gingrich said he thought Abramoff and others involved should go to jail, but that the scandal was also symptomatic of "a much larger and deeper problem" in Washington.

"I'll tell you what the city's first instinct is going to be," he said at the Rotary Club in Washington today. "It's going to be to turn Abramoff into lobbyist-bashing -- have the same system on the Hill, that is unhealthy, protect itself by passing a narrowly drawn anti-lobbyist provision while the same people go to the same PAC fundraisers to raise the same money with the same cronies in the same manner."

Gingrich was one of the primary architects of the GOP takeover of Congress in 1994, when Republicans swept into office in part by promising to rid Capitol Hill of Democratic corruption. Gingrich first campaigned for the White House as an outsider, too, promising to restore honor and integrity to the office, though he himself was ultimately ousted in part over an ethics scandal.

Today the Republican National Committee said it would donate to the Red Cross $6,000 that was given directly to Bush's re-election campaign by Abramoff; his wife, Pam; and the Saginaw Chippewa Tribe, although the Democratic National Committee is calling on the RNC to return all the money Abramoff raised as a Bush Pioneer, some $100,000.

Other top Republicans followed suit. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's office said he would redirect $15,000 worth of past donations made by Abramoff and his wife to charities in his Texas district.

"The funds were donated in full compliance with federal law and disclosed properly and publicly, but yesterday's admission of guilt and improper actions warranted our action to make something positive come of all this by donating the money to local charities rather than retaining it," said Shannon Flaherty, a spokeswoman.

Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., also planned to donate to charity $8,500 he received from Abramoff over the years. And on Tuesday, House Speaker Dennis Hastert's office said the Illinois Republican would return Abramoff's contributions as well.

Lawmakers are also hastening to tighten ethics rules -- and possibly pass new legislation -- regarding lobbying.

"I will be working with colleagues this session to examine and act on any necessary changes to improve transparency and accountability for our body when it comes to lobbying," Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., said today in a statement.

Still, the scandal's political effects can already be seen in some lawmakers' home districts and states. Montana's Democratic Party has already run ads against Republican Senator Conrad Burns on the issue. Burns has returned some $150,000 from Abramoff, and recent polls have shown that race narrowing.

Other races could be affected in more indirect ways.

"Collateral damage could be somebody like Mike DeWine," said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst at the Cook Political Report. "He is from Ohio and he is a Republican -- and ethics is a big deal there."

Ohio's governor pleaded guilty this summer to violating state ethics laws, and the only lawmaker singled out in the Abramoff court documents so far for accepting gifts in exchange for certain actions -- albeit not by name -- was Rep. Bob Ney, R-Ohio. On Tuesday, the Columbus Dispatch reported that Ohio Republican leaders would ask Ney to resign if he is indicted. Ney has said he is innocent of any violations.

On the other hand, a lawmaker like Lincoln Chaffee, R-R.I., whose seat Democrats have targeted, is unlikely to be affected by the scandal because he's already "the ultimate outsider," said Duffy. And Democrats could still find some of their own implicated as the Abramoff investigation continues.