Tight races make Calif. a bigger catch
VAN NUYS, Calif. -- Finally, voters in the nation's most populous state get to help pick the finalists for president.
For the first time in decades, thanks to an early primary and volatile races in both parties, California is at the center of the action. It's the biggest prize on Super Tuesday, the 22-state tidal wave of primaries and caucuses Feb. 5.
Hundreds of delegates are at stake here — nearly 22% of those needed to win the Democratic nomination and 15% of those needed by Republicans — as well as bragging rights and a claim to significant momentum.
"We're all a little bit startled," says Dan Schnur, a California-based GOP strategist. "The fact that both nominations are going to be seriously contested here is very exciting."
Campaigns court voters here with an intensity usually reserved for small leadoff states in the nomination season. There are ads on TV, brochures in mailboxes, advocates on the phone, sometimes even a canvasser at the door or a candidate down the block. Presidential hopefuls often spend time plumbing this wealthy state for money, but this year they also are squeezing in rallies, roundtables and coffee-shop visits.
California is an outsized national presence, whether you're talking statistics (36 million residents and the eighth-largest economy in the world), problems (traffic and natural disasters), glitz (celebrities), agenda-setting (taxes, immigration and global warming) or Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's macho, movie-star personality.
The state poses outsized challenges for candidates, too. It costs millions of dollars to blanket California with TV ads, making for tough spending decisions. The state's sheer vastness — more than 24,000 precincts across nearly 156,000 square miles — means organizing on a massive scale.
Candidates also must reach out to voters who speak Spanish and independents who often don't vote. And they must reach out to everyone early. In a process that's been going on since Jan. 7, up to half the votes in the primary will be cast in advance, through the mail. One in five voters in each party have voted, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.
The new poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed that Arizona Sen. John McCain led former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 35%-27% on the GOP side. The poll is a snapshot that could change. Each candidate hopes to rocket into California and other contests with a win Tuesday in Florida.
Among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton led Illinois Sen. Barack Obama here by 12 percentage points, 47%-35%, fueled by a 20-point lead among women. The snapshot was taken before Obama's huge win Saturday in South Carolina. He's looking to capitalize on that here and stay competitive in the delegate count. A Clinton victory would give her campaign new energy.
For the past dozen years, California presidential primaries have been in March, after voters elsewhere have crowned nominees or sent them well on their way. Political veterans reach back 40 years or more trying to recall when the state last helped pick a ticket.
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